Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.
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Market Report for Monday, Feb. 7th
Welcome back. The NHL All-Star Game has come and gone, which means there won’t be any breaks between now and the end of the season. It will take a little while for things to pick up, though, as there are just two games scheduled for Monday.
71-65, -1.35 units, -1.0 percent ROI
Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.
Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:
New Jersey Devils (+ 110) at Ottawa Senators (-130)
Devils’ Forward Jack Hughes was placed in COVID protocol following his appearance in the All-Star Game and defender Dougie Hamilton did not travel with the team to Ottawa. Goaltender MacKenzie Blackwood is still out with an injury and is not expected to return to the lineup anytime soon. The Devils have lost six in a row and 10 of their last 12. This is the first game of a back-to-back for New Jersey, who will play the Canadiens in Montreal on Tuesday before travelling to St. Louis to play the Blues on Thursday.
The Senators, who will also play again on Tuesday when the host Carolina, are beginning a tough stretch of make-up games. Ottawa will play 10 games between Feb. 7th and Feb. 22nd, the most of any team. The Sens will play five games in seven days this week, but the first four will be played in Ottawa. The Senators are missing two key players, Drake Batherson and Josh Norris, but Connor Brown will return to the lineup on Monday, and it’s possible that Dylan Gambrell and Nikita Zaitsev will as well.
According to my model, the home team should be priced as a small favorite (around -115). Therefore, I won’t be laying the favorite at -130. Nor will I be taking the dog at + 110. There will be better opportunities to back (and fade) teams like the Devils and Senators.
Notes: Matt Murray will start in goal for the Senators.
Carolina Hurricanes (+ 110) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-130)
Hurricanes’ forward Teuvo Teravainen will be a game-time decision for the Hurricanes. Jesperi Kotkaniemi is in COVID protocol. Meanwhile, Maple Leafs’ defender Jake Muzzin is not expected to be back in the lineup on Monday. If Teravainen does play, the Hurricanes will obviously be in a much better position to win the game, given that he is one of their best skaters. And as mentioned, the Hurricanes will play the Senators in Ottawa on Tuesday, so it’s unclear whether Frederik Andersen or Antti Raanta will get the start in Toronto on Monday. I assume it’ll be the former, as Andersen was a member of the Maple Leafs for five seasons.
Both Toronto and Carolina are top-five teams in goal share, expected goal share and shot attempt percentage, so there isn’t much separating them. Toronto has home ice advantage, though, and should be priced around -125, according to my model. However, if Teravainen isn’t in the Hurricanes’ lineup, the Maple Leafs’ odds of winning the game will improve. It might not matter, though, as the home team is already priced as high as -135 at some shops.
Notes: Petr Mrazek is getting the start against his former team. Mrazek has only played seven games this season, but he should start to see more action down the stretch. Jack Campbell still owns the starting position, but now he’s got some competition.
There are no recommended bets currently.
Player Prop Bets:
Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI
There are no recommended play prop bets currently.