NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 2/28

February 28, 2022 09:43 AM
USATSI_17771573

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

 

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report Recap for Sunday, Feb. 27th

There were no recommended bets on Sunday.

Record:

79-70, + 2.35 units, 1.6 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Monday, Feb. 28th

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Vancouver Canucks (+ 105) at New Jersey Devils (-125)

The Canucks beat up the Rangers 5-2 on Sunday in New York, and now they’ll play their second game in as many nights when they take on the Devils in New Jersey. Jaroslav Halak will likely start in goal for the Canucks according to head coach Bruce Boudreau, while the Devils, who are finally back at full strength, will likely turn to John Gillies. The Devils should be better down the stretch now that Dougie Hamilton is back in the lineup after missing almost all of January and February with an injury, but according to my model, the Devils should be priced around -115,

Toronto Maple Leafs (-135) at Washington Capitals (+ 115)

The Capitals are back in Washington following a four-game road trip. They started off with wins in Nashville and Philadelphia but finished up the trip with back-to-back losses against the Rangers and the Flyers. Washington has struggled, but they’re underlying metrics still suggest they’re playing like an above-average team, and they still have a lot of high-end skill. Vitek Vanecek has been decent in goal, but he’s probably going to serve in a back-up role on Monday. He’s saved the team roughly two goals more than an average goaltender would have given the quality of the shots that he’s faced (according to Evolving Hockey), but Ilya Samsonov has played more games and has allowed three goals above expected. Samsonov will likely be in goal on Monday.

The Maple Leafs, meanwhile, are coming off back-to-back wins over the Wild and Red Wings, but everybody is asking questions about their goaltending. Jack Campbell and Petr Mrazek have combined to allow approximately six goals above expected so far this season, and unless one of them gets hot, the team is going to be in tough when they’re up against teams like the Panthers, Hurricanes and Lightning i.e., teams that can score and have better goaltending. The Capitals can be a tough opponent, but they don’t have above average goaltending either and they score goals at a lower rate than the Maple Leafs do. They do have home ice, though, and that counts for something, but they’re still the underdog. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Capitals turn things around sooner rather than later, but according to my model, the Maple Leafs should be priced around -130, so it doesn’t look like I’ll be betting on them to do so.

Notes: Jake Muzzin and Travis Dermott will not be on the Maple Leafs blue line due to injuries. Justin Schultz will be a game-time decision for Washington.

Boston Bruins (-120) at Los Angeles Kings (+ 100)

Everything depends on the goaltending matchup in this game, as there is a wide range of pricing scenarios according to my model. Linus Ullmark and Jonathan Quick would be the most favorable matchup for the Kings, while Jeremy Swayman and Cal Petersen would be the best matchup for Boston. The Kings are playing their third game in four days (and fourth game in six days) while the Bruins are playing their first game of a back-to-back, as the Ducks will host them on Tuesday. The Bruins have won four games in a row, but the Kings are the real deal, and any bettor that’s going to lay the favorite should be cognizant of the chance that the line could move against them, depending on what the starting lineups look like. The Bruins could be priced closer to -140 if it’s Swayman versus Petersen. However, since early bets have pushed the Kings down to even money, I can justify making a small bet on the Bruins at -120.

Pick:

Boston Bruins -120 (half size)

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Boston Bruins -120 (half size)

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

back to news

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

A Numbers Game: Keep an eye out for diminishing returns on teams that you were high on at the beginning of the season like the Colts. Know when to sell on these teams.

Follow The Money: QB play is down in the NFL, according to Michael Lombardi. Worth looking at more Unders until it changes.

View tips for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Tim Murray: Florida -10 vs Mizzou

Dave Tuley: Texans +7 at Jaguars

View new sortable Picks at a Glance page for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Screen_Shot_2022-10-03_at_7.42.33_PM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

Close