NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 2/21

February 21, 2022 09:17 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Sunday, Feb. 20th

Igor Shesterkin and the New York Rangers picked up a win over the Ottawa Senators and chased the -200 moneyline bet on the road team.

Record:

76-68, + 1.4 units, 1.0 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Sunday, Feb. 21st

It’s Family Day in Canada, which means hockey starts early on Monday. There are five games scheduled, starting at 1 p.m. ET.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Colorado Avalanche (-170) at Boston Bruins (+ 150)

I don’t want to take the dog here, because the Avalanche are a wagon and the Bruins’ offense has been ineffective over their last nine games. They’ve only scored more than two goals twice over that stretch, and if they can’t generate more than three goals versus the Avalanche, there’s little hope that they will be able to defeat them, even on home ice. However, looking at the bigger picture, there’s some value on the home dog at + 150, but I’m not going to act just yet. According to my model, the Bruins should be priced around + 140, as this is the final game of Brad Marchand’s six-game suspension, but there’s been no push back on the line move that saw the road team go from -160 to -170 earlier this morning. There’s a chance that the Bruins could be carrying an even bigger price tag closer to game time, and I’ll consider taking a small position on them at that point.

Carolina Hurricanes (-210) at Philadelphia Flyers (+ 180)

The Hurricanes picked up a win over the Penguins in Pittsburgh on Sunday. The score was close, but the Hurricanes dominated the Penguins for most of the game. They did sit back a little bit once they had a big multi-goal lead, though, and that has resulted in their underlying metrics not looking as strong as they should. On Monday, the Hurricanes will play their second game in as many days, when they take on the Flyers in Philadelphia. Antti Raanta was in goal against the Penguins on Sunday, which means Frederik Andersen will almost certainly start in goal against the Flyers. The Hurricanes are the sixth-best team by Evolving Hockey’s expected goals, and they have the second-best goal share in the NHL, behind only the Calgary Flames. Andersen has been great for Carolina, posting a .927 save percentage, and Philadelphia’s offense has been playing poorly. The Flyers rank 28th on offense, and since Jan. 1st, the Flyers have only scored 2.37 goals per 60 minutes. On defense, they’ve allowed at least four goals in 11 of their last 18 games, and they’ve only managed to pick up two wins during that stretch. Carolina will be tired, but according to my model, having Andersen in goal is a big plus, and the Hurricanes should be priced around -255. My model is showing a bigger edge on the puck line, though. I bet the Hurricanes to cover the (-1.5) puck line at + 120. It’s a good bet all the way down to + 110.

Update: Carter Hart is out due to an eye infection, which means Martin Jones will start in goal for the Flyers. The game line has moved a bit, but there is value in laying -220 on the Hurricanes to win the game so I'm adding that to my card.

Pick:

Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line -1.5, + 120

Carolina Hurricanes -220

Winnipeg Jets (+ 190) at Calgary Flames (-220)

The Flames are one win away from tying the longest winning streak in franchise history. They’ve won nine games in a row and look like the legitimate Stanley Cup contender that I thought they could be all along. Now, if they could just win the Pacific Division and cash a bunch of longshot tickets, I would be happy. As far as Monday’s game goes against the Jets, the Flames do have a rest advantage, as this will be Winnipeg’s fourth game in six days, but the game line is priced close to where it should be. According to my model, the Flames should be priced around -220.

Toronto Maple Leafs (-360) at Montreal Canadiens (+ 310)

Montreal is coming off back-to-back wins for the first time all season. They picked up an overtime win against St. Louis earlier this week and earned a shootout victory on Long Island on Sunday. The good times will probably end on Monday, though, as the Canadiens are set to host the Maple Leafs. Toronto will play Columbus on Tuesday, so Petr Mrazek will get the start on Monday. They’re coming off a big 6-3 loss at the hand of the Blues and the team should be motivated to clean up their game and embarrass the Canadiens in the process. With Mrazek is in goal, the Maple Leafs should be priced around -380.

Seattle Kraken (+ 145) at Vancouver Canucks (-165)

For whatever reason, the Kraken have been better on the road this season, but that doesn’t mean they have a good chance of winning in Vancouver on Monday. According to my model, the Canucks, who I don’t think highly of, should be priced around -170. Vancouver has won three out of five games since returning to action following the All-Star break, but they’ve dropped 11 of their last 19 contests and are coming off an embarrassing 7-4 loss to a tired team from Anaheim. Thatcher Demko took the brunt of that loss, but Jaroslav Halak was awful, too. It’s unclear who the Canucks will start in goal on Monday, but if I had to guess, Demko will probably be guarding the cage.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line -1.5, + 120

Carolina Hurricanes -220

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

 

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