NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 2/14

February 14, 2022 09:24 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Sunday, Feb. 13th

There was no betting market report for Sunday, but Saturday’s post featured a moneyline winner, as the Flames picked up a win over the Islanders.

Record:

72-67, -1.55 units, -1.1 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Monday, Feb. 14th

There are just four games scheduled for Monday, and at least one has been priced incorrectly by the market, according to my model.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Detroit Red Wings (+ 200) at Minnesota Wild (-220)

There’s a chance that the Red Wings could go back to Thomas Greiss, as the veteran goaltender was very strong in his last performance. That was likely an aberration, though. Greiss has been awful this season, and the last game the Red Wings played was against the lowly Flyers. Minnesota is coming off a big win over the Carolina Hurricanes and remain one of the hottest teams in the NHL, having won 10 of their last 12 games. The Wild’s potent offense should be able to carve out at least a few goals at home against the Red Wings. We still don’t know who will start in goal for the Wild, though, and with the goaltending up in the air, it’s too early to finalize my projection.

Chicago Blackhawks (+ 140) at Winnipeg Jets (-160)

Monday’s game against the Blackhawks will be the Jets third in four days, and it’s also the first of three games that the Jets will play over the next four days, so I don’t think we’ll see Eric Comrie until the Jets play the Kraken on Thursday, in the second half of a back-to-back. Expect Connor Hellebuyck to start Monday versus Chicago and Wednesday versus the Minnesota Wild. The Jets’ schedule is tough, and although the Blackhawks aren’t a formidable opponent, the Jets just don’t deserve to be priced at -160 in this spot. Marc-Andre Fleury is expected to start yet another game for Chicago, as they continue to pretend their delusional quest for a playoff spot. Backup goaltender Kevin Lankinen is still on the shelf, and if he’s not back, Chicago will probably have to start Arvid Soderblom in one of their upcoming games. The Blackhawks will play the Blue Jackets and Stars on back-to-back nights later this week, so that’s something bettors should watch out for. According to my model, the Jets should be priced around -150.

Notes: Jonathan Toews (CHI) will not play. Nikolaj Ehlers (WPG) will not play.

Toronto Maple Leafs (-240) at Seattle Kraken (+ 200)

Puck luck has not been on Toronto’s side lately, as the Maple Leafs have lost two in a row despite outplaying their opponents in both games. Toronto owned around 60 percent of the expected goals but failed to register more than two goals in either game. Prior to that, the Maple Leafs had won 10 of 13 games straight up and were scoring about 4.5 goals per game. A matchup with the Kraken is just what Toronto needs to find their scoring touch again. Seattle doesn’t really gain an edge from playing on home ice, as they’ve lost 17 of 26 games at Climate Pledge Arena, and in 15 of those losses, the margin of victory was two goals or more. Since Dec. 29th, the Kraken have lost 12 of 18 games, and they’ve been allowing almost four goals per game on average. Toronto is the best team by expected goals, according to Evolving Hockey, and their goal share (57.1 percent) puts them in the top five. Seattle, meanwhile, ranks 23rd in expected goals for percentage, and they’ve only managed to score 42.6 percent of the goals, which means they sit in the bottom five. These two teams are nothing alike, and the road team should win this game more than 73 percent of the time. It’s also more likely than not that Toronto will win by at least two goals, and therefore, there’s value in betting the Leafs to do just that at even money or better.

Notes: Jack Campbell will start in goal for the Maple Leafs.

Pick:

Toronto Maple Leafs Puck Line -1.5 (+ 105)

Edmonton Oilers (-145) at San Jose Sharks (+ 125)

Edmonton will play San Jose on Monday and Los Angeles on Tuesday. The Oilers picked up a win over the Islanders in Jay Woodcroft’s first game as head coach, and now they’ll look to score some big points against two Pacific Division rivals as they push toward the playoffs. It’s unclear who will start in goal on Monday in San Jose, as Mike Smith has started the last three games. I imagine Stuart Skinner will get one of the starts, as the new coach is familiar with him from their days in the American Hockey League. Erik Karlsson is still not back with the Sharks, but the team says that he is ahead of schedule after undergoing surgery and is return is going to be something that bettors will have to watch out for going forward. He won’t play on Monday, though, and the Oilers should be priced around -125, according to my model. There could be value on the Sharks if the game line surpasses + 135, but since most books are offering + 120 and 125, bettors are going to have to drive the Oilers’ odds up to -155 or -160, and I just don’t see that happening.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Toronto Maple Leafs Puck Line -1.5 (+ 105)

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended play prop bets currently.

 

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