NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 1/31

January 31, 2022 09:27 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Sunday, Jan. 30th

Thanks to Linus Ullmark, and some costly errors committed by too many players, the Bruins never stood a chance against the Stars on Sunday, and I didn’t end the week on a high note like I had hoped. It wasn’t a good week, and I hope I can turn things around over the next three days, but I’m not going to force it, either.

Record:

71-63, + 1.3 units, 1.0 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Monday, Jan. 31st

There are just five games scheduled for Monday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Florida Panthers (-280) at Columbus Blue Jackets (+ 240)

One night after defeating the Canadiens 6-3 in Montreal, the Blue Jackets are back in Columbus to host the Panthers. Florida hasn't been good on the road this season, but they should still win this game with relative ease. Elvis Merzlikins hasn't played since the Flames put six goals past him on Jan. 26th, and he will probably get the start in goal on Monday. There's no telling who the Panthers will start be between the pipes, but according to my model, they should be priced somewhere between -270 and -290.

Anaheim Ducks (-115) at Detroit Red Wings (-110)

Now that the Ducks are healthy, they’ve really started to pick things up, winning four of their last five. Troy Terry, Cam Fowler, Adam Henrique and others have returned to the lineup recently, and the Ducks offense has picked up. The Ducks are playing their fourth game in six days, but this will be the third game in four days for Detroit. Alex Nedeljkovic should get the start for Detroit, and he’s allowed almost seven goals above expected in his last five starts, according to Evolving Hockey. The Red Wings have lost 10 of their last 14 games and have allowed 3.6 goals per 60 minutes during that stretch. John Gibson, meanwhile, has bounced back in a big way. Evolving Hockey estimates that he’s saved almost 17 goals above expected over about 2,000 minutes of playing time so far this season. The Ducks don’t play again until Feb. 11th, and although Gibson will participate in the All-Star Game, he’ll probably get one more start before having all that time off. If it’s Stolarz, I believe the Ducks are still in a good position to win, but I will have made a bad bet. Assuming Gibson gets the start, my model prices the Ducks around -125. The Ducks are a good bet at -110, but I’d recommend taking a smaller position at -115, though, because the edge isn’t as big. However, if you're going to tail the bet, shop around, because more than enough shops are still offering -110, or better.

Pick:

Anaheim Ducks -110

Edmonton Oilers (-200) at Ottawa Senators (+ 180)

It didn’t take Evander Kane long to make an impact with the Edmonton Oilers, as he opened the scoring with a goal in their last game, which was his first as a member of the Oilers. Edmonton is now in Ottawa to play the Senators, who are missing three important players, as Drake Batherson, Connor Brown and Josh Norris are all on the injured list. Of course, we can’t forget that the Oilers were a complete tire fire before they won four in a row. According to my model, the Oilers should be priced around -200, and therefore, I don’t have much interest in this game from a betting perspective.

Vancouver Canucks (-105) at Chicago Blackhawks (-115)

Vancouver had won eight of nine following Bruce Boudreau’s hiring, but the team hadn’t faced much adversity. Well, that changed over the last few weeks, as several key Canucks players (including both goaltenders) were out of action due to COVID. The Canucks didn’t handle it well, losing seven of their last 10 games, but who can blame them? The Canucks have mostly gotten over the virus, and all the important players are back in the lineup, but things are right back where they were before Boudreau took over, and maybe their hot streak was aberration. Chicago has lost five of their last six games, and Jonathan Toews is sidelined with a concussion. They had won four in a row prior to this recent losing skid, but before that, they had lost six in a row, so there’s not a whole lot of positives here to talk about, even when looking at a larger sample size. My model prices the Canucks around -105, but that’s assuming Thatcher Demko is going to be between the pipes.

New Jersey Devils (+ 280) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-340)

Dougie Hamilton is about three weeks removed from jaw surgery, and although he has been practicing with the team, he’s been sporting a non-contact jersey. Of course, there’s a chance that he could return before the league pauses for the All-Star Game, but it’s probably just as likely that he remains out until play resumes on Feb. 7th. The Devils have a home-and-home against the Maple Leafs, as both teams head into the break. The Devils might squeak out a victory, but it’s more likely that they lose both games due to poor goaltending. Toronto has Jack Campbell (who will start on Monday) and Petr Mrazek. New Jersey has Jon Gillies and Akira Schmid, unless MacKenzie Blackwood makes his way back from an injury that’s been keeping him out. Blackwood’s also been bad, though, allowing approximately 12 goals above expected, according to Evolving Hockey. The Devils won three out of their first four games coming out of the break, but have since lost seven of eight, including four in a row. The Maple Leafs, on the other hand, have won seven of ten (mostly on the road) and they’ve also scored at least four goals in seven of those games. According to my model, the Maple Leafs should be priced somewhere between -345 and -360, depending on what the lineup looks like (Jake Muzzin is questionable). It doesn’t look like it will matter much, though, as the market seems to have got this one right.

Bet Summary

Early Bets:

Anaheim Ducks -110

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended play prop bets currently.

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