NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 1/24

January 24, 2022 09:15 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Sunday, Jan. 23rd

There were no recommended bets on Sunday.

Record: 68-59, + 3.25 units, 2.6 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Monday, Jan. 24th

There are seven games scheduled for Monday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Los Angeles Kings (+ 145) at New York Rangers (-155)

Los Angeles played on Sunday, picking up a win over the Devils in New Jersey, and now they'll face off against the Rangers on Monday, who will be playing their third game in four days. Igor Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick are expected to be the starting goaltenders. The Rangers are 8-4 straight up since returning to action, but grade out as a bottom-10 team by expected goals and shot attempt percentage, while the Kings are an above average team in both categories. According to my model, the Rangers should be priced no higher than -140.

Vegas Golden Knights (+ 105) at Washington Capitals (-125)

Max Pacioretty and Alec Martinez are travelling with the team on a road trip that will see the Golden Knights visit Carolina, Florida and Tampa Bay. But first, Vegas must make a stop in Washington to face off against the Capitals. I don’t think we’ll see either player suit up for the Golden Knights on Monday, but we will see them play on this trip so it’s something to watch for. Mark Stone is still in COVID protocol, though, so the team won’t be at full strength until after the All-Star Game. Washington will be without John Carlson and Nick Jensen due to COVID, and T.J. Oshie is still out with an upper-body injury until further notice. Dmitry Orlov is eligible to return after serving a two-game suspension. I don’t have much interest in this game from a betting perspective, as my model prices the Capitals as a small favorite. I would take the Golden Knights if they were a bigger underdog.

Update: Scratch what I said about John Carlson, because it looks like he will be back in the Washington lineup on Monday, and that makes a big difference. There's a little bit of value on the Golden Knights at + 130, assuming Robin Lehner gets the start, but not enough to bite just yet. 

Dallas Stars (-155) at Philadelphia Flyers (+ 135)

Things have continued to spiral out of control for Philadelphia, and although the Stars haven’t been too hot themselves, they should be able to get the win on the road against a hapless team like the Flyers. The game line didn’t even have a chance to hit most shops before it was bet from -145 up to -155, and that's where my model thinks the Stars should be priced.

Notes: Carter Hart will start for the Flyers. Dallas will play again on Tuesday, but Braden Holtby has started the last two games, so I think there's a better chance that Jake Oettinger starts on Monday.

Anaheim Ducks (+ 210) at Boston Bruins (-250)

There's quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding the Ducks' lineup. Troy Terry and Cam Fowler are going to be game-time decisions, which would give the Ducks a big boost. Anaheim has won just three out of 11 games since returning from the break, and even though they have a rest advantage on Monday, one of the days that they had off was spent travelling. Boston is a tough place to play, and the Bruins are at the top of their game, even if Terry and Fowler are in the lineup, the Bruins should be priced somewhere around -230.

Notes: Boston defender Matt Grzelyk will not play. 

Montreal Canadiens (+ 300) at Minnesota Wild (-360)

Cam Talbot appears to be on track to make his return to the Minnesota crease on Monday, after Jared Spurgeon returned to the lineup over the weekend. Only Jonas Brodin remains on the injured list now. Montreal's injury list, on the other hand, stretches a mile long, and it includes names like Cole Caufield, Jonathan Drouin and Brendan Gallagher. According to my model, the Wild should be priced north of -300, but nowhere near -360.

Chicago Blackhawks (+ 250) at Colorado Avalanche (-300)

Colorado has played 12 games since Jan. 2nd, and they’ve won 11. However, despite being a sizeable favorite in just about every game, they have gone to overtime or a shootout six times this month. They haven’t been as dominant as they should be, and although it should sort itself out, their current form impacts my model prices this game. The Avalanche will probably win the game, and they might even do it in dominant fashion, but I’m going to pass on laying -300, as my estimate of a fair line isn’t that far off.

Notes: Marc-Andre Fleury and Darcy Kuemper are expected to be the starting goaltenders.

St. Louis Blues (+ 130) at Calgary Flames (-150)

Calgary was dealt a tough loss in Edmonton on Saturday, but I’m confident in my assessment of this team. The Flames aren’t an elite team because they lack star power, but they’re a well-structured team with a good goaltender. Jacob Markstrom could have been better in Edmonton, but I’m hopeful that he can bounce back against the Blues on Monday. St. Louis has won eight of their last 10 games, dating back to Dec. 29th, but a lot of that has to do with Ville Husso and his uncharacteristic play. He’s won his last five starts, allowing one goal or less in four of them. The Blues defeated the Canucks by a score of 3-1 on Sunday in what was another solid performance from Husso in which he stopped 38 out of 39 shots. St. Louis will likely go back to Binnington on Monday, though, and although he’s won three out of his last five starts, he’s allowed four goals or more in three of them, too. In other words, Binnington’s been playing poorly as of late, and the same can be said about the rest of the group. They have dealt with injuries and illness, but over their last ten games, the Blues have only had a positive expected goal differential four times, according to Evolving Hockey. Meanwhile, the Flames have only played eight games since returning from the break, and they have only won three times, however, they were the better team in most of those games, at least through a statistical lens. According to my model, the Flames should be priced slightly north of -160, therefore, I’m laying the favorite at -145, up to around -150, but since the consensus line has already moved to -155, I'm going to recommend a smaller wager.

Pick:

Calgary Flames -155 (half size)

Bet Summary

Early Bets:

Calgary Flames -155 (half size)

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended play prop bets currently.

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