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Market Report Recap for Sunday, Jan. 16th
There were no recommended bets on Sunday.
Record: 62-57, -0.42 units, -0.4 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -110
Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.
Market Report for Monday, Jan. 17th
There are eight games scheduled for Monday. Five of which have early start times. It looks like it will be a quiet day on the betting front, but things could change depending on how things (player news and starting goaltenders) shake out.
Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:
Detroit Red Wings (-135) at Buffalo Sabres (+ 115)
The Red Wings defeated the Sabres by a score of 4-0 in Detroit last week, and now the two teams are set to go head-to-head in Buffalo on Monday. The Sabres goaltending is a huge concern now that Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen unavailable and Buffalo is stuck with Aaron Dell, who will defend the cage on Monday. The Red Wings will play the Islanders on Tuesday, which makes it tough to project who they will start in goal, but I’m going to assume that Thomas Greiss will get the nod on Monday in Buffalo. According to my model, the Sabres should be priced around + 110, if that’s the case, but I’m probably going to pass on taking the dog here unless the line gets out of hand after the Red Wings confirm their starting goaltender.
Update: Thomas Greiss has been placed in COVID protocol and that means Alex Nedeljkovic will start in goal on Monday. My model now estimates that the Red Wings should be priced around -127 now. The consensus price is + 130 on Buffalo, and there isn't enough value there to justify taking the dog.
Minnesota Wild (+ 190) at Colorado Avalanche (-230)
Colorado is playing their third game in four nights after playing in back-to-back games against the Coyotes on Friday and Saturday. Minnesota, on the other hand, has had two days off, but they’re going to be playing this game shorthanded, as Jared Spurgeon, Joel Eriksson Ek, Jonas Brodin and Cam Talbot are all expected to miss the game. Kaapo Kakhonen will likely start in goal. Colorado is missing a few bodies, but they shouldn’t miss a beat here for any other reason than maybe being a little tired, but laying -230 would be a -EV bet, as my model suggests that the price is close to where it should be. Minnesota is a tough team to figure out, as they are an average team by most metrics, but continue to outperform their expected goals, according to Evolving Hockey. I believe this has a lot to do with the top-end talent that the team has at their disposal on most nights, but obviously, missing Spurgeon, Brodin, Eriksson Ek and Talbot puts the team in a tough spot in Colorado.
Los Angeles Kings (-115) at San Jose Sharks (-105)
James Reimer is expected to return to the San Jose crease on Monday against the Kings, who will be without Adrian Kempe due to COVID. Los Angeles has been playing well, while the Sharks have been playing poorly, but since they are the home team, my model estimates that they have about a 50 percent chance of winning the game. That’s in line with the midpoint price at most sportsbooks, after the market bet this game into shape earlier this morning. There wasn’t enough value for me to consider taking the home underdog, though, so I didn’t take a position and I probably won’t at any point, based on where the market is.
Montreal Canadiens (+ 100) at Arizona Coyotes (-120)
Due to postponements, the Canadiens have had three days off to rest since their last game, while the Coyotes are playing their third game in four days. Josh Anderson is expected to return to the Canadiens’ lineup on Monday, but the team is still missing several players, including Brendan Gallagher, Tyler Toffoli and starting goaltender Jake Allen. It sounded like the Coyotes might get some players back from COVID protocol, but that won’t happen, according to reports. Arizona’s defense corps mostly consists of players from the American Hockey League., but the Canadiens’ roster barely has any NHL players either. Karel Vejmelka will start in goal for Arizona, while the Canadiens still must decide between Samuel Montembeault and Cayden Primeau, as they are scheduled to play the Stars in Dallas on Tuesday. According to my model, this game is a coin flip, but I’m not confident that any model can capture the true skill of these rosters with accuracy.
Chicago Blackhawks (-110) at Seattle Kraken (-110)
Blackhawks’ goaltender Kevin Lankinen exited COVID protocol last week, and I think there’s a chance that he could get the start in Seattle on Monday, as Marc-Andre Fleury has started the last six games. However, since their game against the Oilers on Tuesday has been postponed, the team might choose to ride Fleury for another game while Lankinen gets back into shape. Philipp Grubauer is expected to start for the Kraken, as Chris Driedger is in COVID protocol. I don’t have much interest in taking a side here, but if Lankinen gets the start, I will make a bet on the total going over 5.5 goals if I can lay a reasonable price before the news spreads and the game line moves.
Philadelphia Flyers (+ 160) at New York Islanders (-180)
If the Flyers had Sean Couturier, I would take them at + 160, but he hasn’t even been skating and there is no timetable for his return. Philadelphia is an awful team, but the Islanders are bad, too. In fact, both teams rank bottom-10 in shot attempt percentage and goals for percentage. The Islanders have better goaltending and do a better job of suppressing quality scoring chances but laying anywhere close to -180 on the Islanders is crazy, at least in my opinion. I don’t think the line is absurd, I simply think that anyone who sees value in the Islanders at that price is basing it off what the Islanders have played like in the past, and not what they have played like this season. Even over their last handful of games, the Islanders have been outplayed by some weak teams, and they’re relatively healthy. I don’t want to take the Flyers, but if the line climbs any higher, I will consider it.
Nashville Predators (+ 105) at St. Louis Blues (-125)
St. Louis almost took down the Maple Leafs in their last game, despite missing a handful of their best skaters and they’re expected to get more than half of those players back ahead of Monday’s clash with the Predators. The Predators will play host to the Canucks on Tuesday, which means there’s a chance that David Rittich could get the start in St. Louis, but the Blues are a tougher opponent than the Canucks, so I’m going to assume Saros will start on Monday until I have reason to believe otherwise. If it’s Jordan Binnington versus Saros, the Blues should be priced around -110. If Rittich ends up in goal for their respective teams, my handicap will change significantly, but with the Blues being priced at -125 already, it won’t take much to move the line out of range if that’s the case. Of course, the Blues could choose to start Ville Husso, too, so there’s quite a bit of uncertainty here.
Notes: Filip Forsberg is still in COVID protocol and it's unclear if he will be able to play on Monday. I'm assuming he will not. Ville Husso is in the starter's crease at practice, but that's not a guarantee that he will start in goal on Monday, and whether Saros is in goal or not matters a lot more to me.
Update: Filip Forsberg will play and Juuse Saros will start in goal. I am taking the Predators at + 110 or better.
Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas has had five days off to prepare for this game, and Shea Theodore, Nicolas Roy and Nolan Patrick are expected to be back in the lineup. The Penguins, meanwhile, are finishing off a six-game road trip. Oddly enough, the Penguins haven’t been playing well since Evgeni Malkin returned to the lineup, but that should change. Tristan Jarry has had a few days off, too. Robin Lehner is expected to start in goal for the Golden Knights, who are still missing Max Pacioretty and Alec Martinez due to injuries. Pittsburgh grades out as a better team than Vegas in most meaningful categories, but the Golden Knights have home ice advantage in this matchup and that means something. My model estimates that the home team will win the game approximately 52 percent of the time.
Notes: Jason Zucker will be a game-time decision for the Penguins.
Nashville Predators + 110
Player Prop Bets for Sunday, Jan. 16th:
Record: 113-111, -11.5 units, -4.3 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -108
There are no recommended play prop bets currently.