NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 11/22

November 22, 2021 07:40 AM

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report Recap for Sunday, Nov. 21st

There were no bets on Sunday, as news did not shake out how I hoped it would.

Game Lines:

23-25, -5.1 units, -10.5 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -105

Player Props: 

71-67, -6.75 units, -4 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -112

Market Report for Monday, Nov. 22nd

This is not your typical week of NHL hockey, as there are no games on Thursday due to Thanksgiving. There are six games on Monday, but I won't be getting to them all right away. There's one underdog bet that I like a lot, and I wanted to make sure that it made it onto the report, as the line has started to move slightly since I got my bet in.

Update: The report has been updated. Hopefully most of you were able to obtain a good price on the Ducks, as the line as started to move across the board. Check back throughout the day for updates. Good luck.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Columbus Blue Jackets at Buffalo Sabres

Viktor Olofsson wasn’t set to return to the Buffalo lineup on Sunday, but he did just that. Olofsson has one assist in the Sabres’ 5-4 loss to the Rangers. The Blue Jackets are coming off a loss to the Golden Knights on Saturday, which means they’ve only had one day off. I think there’s a good chance that Columbus could turn to Joonas Korpisalo today, as Elvis Merzlikins has started the last four games in a row, and Korpisalo hasn’t played in 10 days. Merzlikins has a .918 save percentage this season. Korpisalo is sporting a .897 save percentage. Merzlikins has saved the team approximately three goals above expected, according to Evolving Hockey, while Korpisalo has cost the team about three goals. What that means is, Merzlikins has been above average, and opponents have scored about 0.3 goals fewer per 60 minutes when he is in goal. When Korpisalo is in the crease, Columbus allows about 0.5 goals more than they should, based on their expected goals against per 60 minutes. I think it’s best to wait and see what direction the team goes in before taking a position on this game.

Update: Korpisalo will start in goal for the Blue Jackets.

Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues

Even though he took part in line rushes at practice on Saturday, Max Pacioretty did not end up suiting up for the Golden Knights against Columbus. It does seem likely that he will be ready to play on Monday, however. Shea Theodore, on the other hand, will probably need more time, as will Jonathan Marchesseault, Alec Martinez and several other players. The Golden Knights’ injury list is a mile long, but a lot of the players are listed as day-to-day so it’s very tough to judge whether they will play on Monday. We might also see Brayden Schenn return to the Blues’ lineup on Monday. Schenn has three goals and three assists in nine games prior to being injured, and he will move the needle in his team’s direction if he gets clearance to play.

Note: Robin Lehner and Jordan Binnington are expected to be the starting goaltenders.

Update: It doesn't look like Schenn (STL) will play. It also doesn't look like Pacioretty (VGK) will play.

Check back later for an update.

Anaheim Ducks (+ 130) at Nashville Predators (-150)

I was worried that John Gibson might get Monday night off, considering the Ducks have a road game in Colorado coming up, however, after looking ahead at their schedule, it seems more likely that they’ll give him a break when they host the Senators later this week. Of course, I could be wrong, but I’m comfortable taking the dog at + 130.

We don’t know if Filip Forsberg will be back for the Predators, but it seems unlikely. However, the Predators might choose to give David Rittich the start in goal, after Juuse Saros was lit up for five goals on 19 shots on Saturday in Montreal. I’ve priced the game with Saros in goal, though, just to be safe.

Anaheim has owned about 51 percent of the expected goals in all situations and have been outscoring teams by about 0.75 goals per game. The Predators, meanwhile, own about 47 percent of the expected goals, on average, and have a negative goal differential. The Ducks have had three days off.


Anaheim Ducks + 130

Update: Juuse Saros will start in goal for the Predators, and although it's unfortunate, it's expected. Nothing has changed. Ducks are value at + 130 or better.

Ottawa Senators (+ 270) at Colorado Avalanche (-330)

Ottawa returns from a lengthily break after the team was hit by the virus. They’re still missing a few players, most notably, Drake Batherson, and it’ is unclear what kind of shape the team will be in when they take the ice in Colorado on Monday. The Avalanche are carrying a big price tag, which is totally justifiable, and fair. Colorado doesn’t have their best player, Nathan MacKinnon, but he should play on their upcoming road trip. Until he’s back, though, the Avalanche should be more than taken care of, as the Senators pose little threat to their chances of getting two points on Monday. According to my model, the Avalanche should win this game approximately 77 percent of the time, which lines up with the game line.

Player Props:

Mikko Rantanen Over 1.5 Points + 165 (BetMGM)

Nazem Kadri Over 0.5 Points -120 (DraftKings)

Rantanen has 12 points in 11 games played, and there have only been two occasions where he has recorded two points or more. He's put up seven points in his last four games, and the Senators are going to be in tough tonight, after a long layoff. The Propagator prices the over around + 120, so there is a lot of value in betting + 165 or + 160. Kadri, meanwhile, is riding an eight-game point streak in which he's put up 15 points. He has 19 points in 14 games and the Propagator prices his odds of registering a point at -160.

Pittsburgh Penguins (+ 100) at Winnipeg Jets (-120)

On Saturday, the Penguins played their best game in quite some time, and it resulted in a 2-0 shutout of the Maple Leafs in Toronto. On Monday, they’ll take on the Jets, and likely Connor Hellebuyck, in Winnipeg. The Jets have a back-to-back coming up in a few days, and I think it’s safe to assume that Eric Comrie will get one of the starts. That means Hellebuyck will likely start in goal on Monday.

The Jets have had two days off since losing two games in a row, while the Penguins just had a single day to travel and get settled in Winnipeg. I’ve got the Penguins rated a little bit higher than the Jets, overall, but because of the Jets are playing at home with rest, they should squeak out a win often. With that said, I don’t think the Jets will win this game more than 55 percent of the time, so there is no value in laying the consensus price of -120.

Note: Paul Stastny (WPG) has missed the last six games and his status is unclear for Monday.

Carolina Hurricanes (-155) at San Jose Sharks (+ 135)

I have been wrong about the Sharks, in the sense that I thought that they would put forth some better efforts now that they were no longer impacted by COVID. Fortunately, I’ve only bet on them once since then, so it hasn’t cost me all that much, but I’m going to back off that stance. I do think the Sharks can be better than they have been as of late, but even if I were to make arbitrary adjustments to my handicap, I don’t think I would be able to justify making a bet on the Sharks at + 135. Alternatively, as good as the Hurricanes have been, I don’t see any value in laying -155 in the hopes that they’ll win the game. According to my model, there’s nothing egregious about how this game is priced, and therefore, there is no value in betting either side.

Note: James Reimer will start in goal for the Sharks. Forward Kevin Labanc (SJS) is eligible to return from his suspension. Forward Jonathan Dahlen (SJS) is listed as day-to-day.

Bet Summary

Early Bets:

Anaheim Ducks + 130

Late Adds:

Mikko Rantanen Over 1.5 Points + 165 (BetMGM)

Nazem Kadri Over 0.5 Points -120 (DraftKings)

back to news

Live On Air

Streaming Now: The Greg Peterson Experience

play Watch Live radio Listen Live


Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.


Jason Weingarten: Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 67.5 Regular Season Wins. View more picks.


The Greg Peterson Experience: Do not overreact or underreact to 1 or 2 days of MLB results. It is a 162-game regular season. View more tips.