Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. Follow me on Twitter to stay up to date as I handicap the NHL each day.
Market Report for Monday, Oct. 31st
Recap: The market was high on Minnesota on Sunday, and I didn’t understand why. I still don’t. The Blackhawks played well but they couldn’t get the job done in overtime or the shootout. I’d make that bet on Chicago again, albeit at a better price.
Wins: 18 Losses: 16 Units Won: + 2.76 units ROI: 7.9 percent
I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.
Today: Happy Halloween! It’s a quiet Monday with just three games.
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Washington Capitals (+ 160) at Carolina Hurricanes (-180)
Injuries could become a problem for the Washington Capitals. They started the season without three important players (Tom Wilson, Nicklas Backstrom and Carl Hagelin) on injured reserve and lost newly acquired Connor Brown to injury shortly after the season started. Now, T.J. Oshie and John Carlson are listed as day-to-day after being banged up in Saturday’s 3-0 win over the Predators. The team will likely provide more of an update today (assuming they hold a morning skate) and then it will be clearer whether Oshie and/or Carlsson will play. Only two points separate the seven teams in the Metro Division (sorry, Columbus) so this is an important game. The Hurricanes will likely win the game regardless of what Washington’s lineup looks like, but the market has already done its thing. According to my model, Carolina shouldn’t be priced any higher than -185 if the Capitals end up icing the same lineup that finished Saturday’s game. At this point, the only bet I’m considering is one on the Capitals if both Carlson and Oshie are good to go.
Notes: Washington will play the Golden Knights on Tuesday in Vegas which means there’s a chance we could see backup goaltender Charlie Lindgren on Monday, but I think there’s a better chance that he starts in Vegas. They signed Darcy Kuemper to help them compete in the Metropolitan Division against teams like the Hurricanes, and the Golden Knights are a Western Conference team. This is the third game in four days for Carolina.
Detroit Red Wings (+ 120) at Buffalo Sabres (-140)
Neither team is coming into this game at full strength. Detroit is down several regulars, including Tyler Bertuzzi and Jakub Vrana, while Buffalo will be without two of their top four defenseman (Mattias Samuelsson and Henri Jokiharju) and possibly one of the players (Ilya Lyubushkin) that they had pegged to fill the void. Buffalo has looked like the superior team so far, and they have a decent chance of beating the Red Wings (even more so if Alex Nedeljkovic starts). However, my model suggests the Sabres should be priced somewhere between -125 and -135, so it doesn’t look like either side will come into range for a bet.
Los Angeles Kings (EVEN) at St. Louis Blues (-120)
If you grabbed the Kings overnight, you probably did alright if you weren’t chasing steam at the tail end of the move. Los Angeles should have never at + 125 or better. But at this point, if you’re betting the Kings, you’re not getting any value. Los Angeles and St. Louis are comparable in a lot of ways, but the Kings are probably a more well-structured team. Or at least they’re capable of that. I have them rated higher than the Blues overall. St. Louis might have a better offense, but they haven’t really shown that yet this season. My model estimates that Los Angeles should be priced around + 105 if the starting goaltenders are Jordan Binnington and Jonathan Quick and that means there’s no value left. Betting the Kings at even money would be considered -EV.
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2021-22 Betting Season Recap:
NHL Betting Guide (Futures): + 25.9 units
Reg Season (Sides and Totals): + 6.22 units
Player Props: -15.33 units
Playoffs (Sides and Totals): -14.43 units
Thoughts: I tried to do too much last season (The Propagator is one example) because it was the first time that I was going to be producing content at large scale. I was worried that my typical betting habits would be seen as too selective and therefore not enough for the average VSiN subscriber. I was wrong.
Going forward: I am back to focusing on what has worked for me all along: Making long term forecasts for futures markets and handicapping all 1,312 regular season g