NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 10/18

By Andy MacNeil  (VSiN.com) 

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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator and Follow me on Twitter.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

Market Report Recap for Sunday Oct. 17th

Sunday could’ve been a day to write off, with only one game on tap, but instead I put together one of my stronger handicaps of the season so far and won a pair of wagers. Days like that add up, especially when you’re in an early hole like I am.

Records 

Game Lines: 2-7, -5.6 units, -55.4 percent ROI, Avg. Odds 103

Player Props: 19-13, + 3.05 units, 7.5 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -116

Overall: 21-20, -2.55 units, -5 percent ROI

Market Report for Monday, Oct. 18

The honeymoon phase is over. It’s time to jump into the first full week of NHL hockey, starting with a quartet of games on Monday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

New York Rangers (+ 160) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-180)

Maple Leafs’ star Auston Matthews is slated to make his season debut on Monday after needing a bit more time to recover from off-season wrist surgery, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at the movement in the betting market as the line has only moved slightly since open. However, that’s because Matthews was only ever supposed to miss three games and sportsbooks were always going to shade their line to reflect that. The bigger concern here is Gerard Gallant’s choice not to reveal a starter before any game this season. I’m not complaining, though, as I know it’s up to me as a sports bettor to adapt to these situations. Will Igor Shesterkin get the start on Monday? Probably, but Matthews is back, and the Rangers are already going to be shorthanded without Kaapo Kakko, which will force a lesser player to play a bigger role. The risk isn’t worth the reward, but the situation could change.

Players Props:

Auston Matthews Over 4.5 Shots + 105 (DraftKings)

There's some risk here, as Matthews is dealing with a surgically repaired wrist, but I bet he's going to want to try it out. The Propagator estimates that Matthews will get five plus shots about 55 percent of the time. This is a fun bet that should win more than the + 105 odds imply it will.

Seattle Kraken (+ 115) at Philadelphia Flyers (-135)

Last week I bet on the Canucks to take down the Flyers at + 135 and now you want me to bet on the Kraken to do the same at + 115? Thanks, but I think I’ll pass. I’m not at all impressed with the Kraken thus far and at first blush it looks as if the team is going to have a hard time living up to expectations. In fact, even the most pessimistic forecasts (mine) might end up looking to generous when this is all said and done. There are some questions about both lineups, as the Flyers are dealing with some injuries and Seattle plays again on Tuesday, but a fair price should be somewhere around -120 (in favor of the home team) so there’s just no value here.

Players Props:

Ryan Ellis Under 0.5 Points -110 (DraftKings)

Ellis had two assists in the Flyers’ wild home opener against the Canucks, but don’t expect that to become the norm. He’s no longer propped up by long-time partner Roman Josi, and he isn’t even on the top power play unit right now. He does play on the top pair, but -110 is way too low.

Anaheim Ducks (+ 165) at Calgary Flames (-185)

The Ducks are in Calgary on Monday to take on the Flames in what is the latter’s home opener. Anaheim will travel to Edmonton immediately following the game to get set for the Oilers on Tuesday. There’s no word on whether John Gibson will be available for either game which creates an obstacle for handicappers like myself. Anthony Stolarz doesn’t appear to be a bad goaltender (a .915 save percentage is respectable) but he’s virtually an unknown at 27 and I’m confident his ceiling isn’t nearly as high as Gibson’s. I won’t be moving on this game until a starter is announced for the Ducks.

Note: There still hasn't been any confirmation from Ducks' head coach Dallas Eakins, but it sounds like Gibson is good to go. However, that doesn't mean he's starting on Monday. The Ducks play again on Tuesday, against Connor McDavid and the Oilers, so Eakins may choose to save his star goaltender in an effort to get a win over his old club.

St. Louis Blues (-170) at Arizona Coyotes (+ 150)

The Blues look like a strong play. And that might be the case, but I’m going to hold off until we learn who the starters are. Because, if I’m being honest, Karel Vejmelka scares me a little. The Coyotes signed the 24-year-old last May and it flew under my radar. He impressed in his debut and after reading up on him, it’s clear he has pedigree. Now, don’t get me wrong, if the price comes down on St. Louis, I’m going to play the Blues regardless of who is in the Arizona goal, but I’m not going to rush to market here. After Kevin Lankinen went from an unknown to someone that was receiving Calder Trophy buzz in 2020-21, I’m a little more cautious when it comes to writing off young goaltenders from overseas.

Note: Carter Hutton has been confirmed as the Coyotes' starter. The Blues have not confirmed a starting goaltender yet, but I'm confident that it will be Jordan Binnington, who has a .925 career save percentage in 10 games versus the Coyotes. The Blues are a play at -170.

Pick:

St. Louis Blues -170

Players Props:

Jakob Chychrun Under 0.5 Points -105 (BetMGM)

Really, I could have just copied and pasted what I wrote about this prop in last week’s report. Chychrun put up big numbers last season, but the Coyotes don’t have as much talent (or depth) after making big changes in the offseason. Chychrun is a good player, but the pricing of this player prop is egregious, according to the Propagator, and should win around 60 percent of the time.

Summary

Early Bets:

Jakob Chychrun Under 0.5 Points -105 (BetMGM)

Ryan Ellis Under 0.5 Points -110 (DraftKings)

Late Adds:

St. Louis Blues -170

Auston Matthews Over 4.5 Shots + 105 (DraftKings)

 

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