NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 6/3

June 3, 2022 10:05 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.

All game lines via VSiN’s NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.

Record: 112-110, + -6.03 nits, -2.6 percent ROI

Market Report Recap for Thursday, June 2nd

There were no recommended bets on Thursday aside from two player props (Zach Hyman and Nazem Kadri each to go register more than 3.5 shots) that broke even with a 1-1 split.

Market Report for Friday, June 3rd

Let’s look at Game 2 of the Eastern Conference final from a betting perspective.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-125) at New York Rangers (+ 105)

New York looks to take a 2-0 series lead over the back-to-back Stanley Cup champions, but in order to do so, they’ll have to be the first team to defeat the Lightning in back-to-back games since 2019. Tampa Bay has not lost two playoff games in a row since they were swept by the Columbus Blue Jackets in the first round three years ago. Of course, the market is aware of that, which is probably why the Game 2 moneyline is virtually the same as it was in Game 1. If not for the streak, things might’ve shifted toward the Rangers, but it was only the second time in three years that Andrei Vasilevskiy has allowed that many. It’s hard to know just how much of the result was due to the Lightning having more than a week off, but credit to the Rangers for the win. I made a small wager on the Lightning in Game 1 at -125, but the loss didn’t deter me from betting on them again in Game 2.

Tampa Bay will probably have to score more than two goals to win Game 2 (the same can be said about the Rangers) and that will be tough. Shesterkin has allowed two or fewer goals in seven out of his last eight games. He made 37 saves in Game 1 (I have over 28.5 at -105 and apparently everyone else did, too) and I expect the Lightning to generate a fair number of shots in Game 2 as the Rangers have allowed 37 shots per 60 minutes in the playoffs. The prop has moved to 29.5 (over -150) for Game 2. The style of game that the two teams play might be different from Game 1, but I still expect each team to generate north of 30 shots. Anthony Cirelli has registered four shots in each of his last two games while playing on the top line with Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos. Cirelli will be able to put pucks on net as long as Brayden Point remains sidelined, and I recommend betting him to register over 1.5 shots at -110.

Pick:

Tampa Bay Lightning -125 (half size)

Player Prop Pick via DraftKings Sportsbook:

Anthony Cirelli Over 1.5 Shots -110

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