NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 5/6

May 6, 2022 09:16 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge. Let’s look at each series from a betting perspective.

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report for Thursday, May 5th

Woof. Not much is going my way early in these playoffs. The Capitals played another solid game against the Panthers, but Florida’s offense cashed in on a couple of their chances early and they never got back into the game, and the Penguins and Flames weren’t up to the task, either. I’ve gone 2-6 on sides (not counting series bets that haven’t been settled yet) but with a little luck, I could have been breakeven. Hopefully things start to turn.

Record: 111-101, + 1.9 units, 0.9percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Friday, May 6th

Three out of the four games scheduled for Friday are rubber matches, as each series is tied 1-1, and the Hurricanes will look to take a 3-0 lead in their series over the Bruins. Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.

Carolina Hurricanes (+ 110) at Boston Bruins (-130)

Boston is in tough heading into Game 3. They’re down 0-2 in the series, and defenceman Hampus Lindholm will not be in the lineup after getting crushed by Andrei Svechnikov in Game 2. Jeremy Swayman will make his first start in the series after the Hurricanes outscored the Bruins 10-3 in the first two games. Carolina goaltender Antti Raanta has not been ruled out for Game 3, but we don’t have to worry about Frederik Andersen returning. The Hurricanes’ starting goaltender has been progressing, but it's he’s not ready yet, according to reports. The Bruins should win this game more often than the Hurricanes, but the injury to Lindholm hurts their chances, and I don’t think there’s any value laying -130 on the home team. I already have a considerable amount of exposure on the Bruins, with bets on them to win the series at -105 and + 170. Hopefully Boston can break out of this offensive slump that they’re in and pick up their first playoff win.

Toronto Maple Leafs (+ 100) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-120)

The Maple Leafs opened as betting favorites in the series, but now that it’s now a best-of-five, the series is a coinflip, with each team sitting at -115. Toronto won Game 1 in dominant fashion, but the Lightning had a bounce back performance in Game 2. I’m holding a series bet on Tampa Bay to win at even money, but my model suggests that there isn’t enough value on the home team to justify betting on them to win Game 3 at -120. I might have a player prop or two later in the day, but DraftKings has yet to put up props related to shots on goal.

Minnesota Wild (+ 110) at St. Louis Blues (-130)

Like the series between the Maple Leafs and Lightning, this series is now a best-of-five, and the betting market suggests it’s a coinflip. Prior to the opening game, the Wild were -150 series favorites, so I feel pretty good about my bet on the Blues to win the series at + 130. Each team has a won decisively, with the Blues taking Game 1 by a score of 4-0 and the Wild winning Game 2 by a score of 6-2. The Blues never should’ve been priced as high as they were in the first two games, but the market for Game 3 is much more in line with my model. Unfortunately, that means that I won’t be laying the favorite in this game, but I will be rooting for them. The Blues defeated the Wild on their home ice twice in the regular season, and they’re in a decent position to take a 2-1 series lead on Friday.

Edmonton Oilers (-150) at Los Angeles Kings (+ 130)

Kings’ forward Viktor Arvidsson missed his second game of the playoffs, and it’s unclear if he will be available for Game 3. If he’s not, the home team’s chances of winning the game won’t be as good as they would’ve been otherwise. Either way, the Oilers should be the favorite, but if Arvidsson is in the lineup, my model’s estimate suggests that the Kings should be priced around + 135. It’s unlikely that I will get to a point where I see value on the road team, as they’re already sitting at -150. The Kings were great in Game 1, owning approximately 58 percent of the even strength shot attempts, but the Oilers dominated Game 2, and the Kings finished with a 36 percent shot share. My expectation of what we’ll see going forward is somewhere between those two results, but once again, if Arvidsson is not in the lineup, the Kings, who are inept on offense, are going to be in tough.

Bet Summary:

There are no recommended bets currently.

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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