NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 5/20

May 20, 2022 08:42 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report Recap for Thursday, May 19th

No Devon Toews points on Thursday, and like the rest of the Avalanche, he didn’t play a very good game.

Record: 112-107, + -4.35 units, -1.5 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Friday, May 20th

Lets’ look at things from a betting perspective.

New York Rangers (+ 155) at Carolina Hurricanes (-175)

New York played their best game of the playoffs, but they didn’t play for a full 60 minutes. Entering the third period, up 1-0, the Rangers’ shot share was sitting at around 60 percent. However, by the end of the final frame, the game was tied, as the Hurricanes took over the game, and the shot attempts were even. The Rangers had a bigger share of expected goals, but Antti Raanta played another solid game and the perceived edge in goal that they have with Igor Shesterkin in the crease didn’t translate to a win. It was a missed opportunity for the underdog. The Bruins couldn’t get their offense going against the Hurricanes, and now, it looks like the Rangers might have some difficulty as well. New York and Boston scored goals at roughly the same rate during the regular season, and Carolina is a good defensive team, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see a similar situation play out. I bet on the Hurricanes at around + 350 with eight minutes remaining in Game 1, and while I’ll be on the lookout for in-game opportunities once the puck drops, my model suggests that this game is priced correctly and that means I won’t be taking a position on either side before the puck drops.  

Edmonton Oilers (+ 150) at Calgary Flames (-170)

Game 1 was wild, and while it will be tough for the Flames and Oilers to play another game packed with that much offense, it wouldn’t be shocking to see another high-scoring affair. After all, in three out of the four regular season meetings the two teams combined for at least seven goals. The Flames have shown that they can match the Oilers on offense, but Jacob Markstrom must be better in Game 2. He’s a big reason why the Flames are sizable favorites in this series, and he must outplay Mike Smith in this series. The Oilers are not at 100 percent, and the Flames have a golden opportunity to take advantage of the Oilers while two of their top three players are banged up. Leon Draisaitl picked up three points in Tuesday’s loss, but he limped in and out of the post-game press conference and there’s a lot of speculation that defenceman Darnell Nurse is battling through an injury. Nurse wasn’t his usual self in Game 1. He played fewer minutes than he did all season, didn’t register a single hit and only generated one shot on goal. He didn’t spend any time on the power play, either, which suggests the coaching staff is trying to go easy on him. This puts the Oilers, and Connor McDavid, in a tough spot, but from a betting perspective, I’m not as interested in betting on Calgary as I was in Game 1. My model estimates that the Flames should be priced slightly north of -180, and that only translates to about a 1.5 percent edge against the betting line. In Game 1, that edge was closer to 2.5 percent. The betting market has caught up to my projection, but I can still justify a small bet on Calgary. I have a big bet on them to win the series, and I made a profit betting on them in Game 1, but I'm not going to lose sight of the big picture. I'm also going to be on Johnny Gaudreau to register at least four shots on goal, though. The Flames’ forward is averaging five shots per game over his last six and has hit the net 14 times over his last two games. He’s gone over 3.5 shots in five of his last six games and he should bring that same type of energy to Game 2.

Pick:

Calgary Flames -170 (half size)

Player Prop Bets:

Johnny Gaudreau Over 3.5 Shots -115 (DraftKings)

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