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NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 4/29

April 29, 2022 08:45 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey

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Market Report Recap for Thursday, April 27th

There were no recommended bets on Thursday.

Record: 109-93, + 6.22 units, 3.0 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Friday, April 29th

As has been the case the last few days, bettors should be aware that many teams are going to be resting star players and starting goaltenders. Obtaining an edge is all about being the first to information on days like this, as game lines move fast, and you should want to get ahead of it. Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.

Washington Capitals (-110) at New York Rangers (-110)

Alex Ovechkin did not suit up on Thursday, and the Capitals lost to the Islanders. It’s unclear whether he’ll play on Friday, and there’s no word on whether the team will choose to rest players like T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom and John Carlson. The Rangers, meanwhile, have already started to rest players. I’m expecting the starting goaltenders to be Alex Georgiev and Ilya Samsonov, but that’s about the only part of either lineup that I am confident enough to project.

Boston Bruins (+ 100) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-120)

On Thursday, the Maple Leafs announced that forwards Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and goaltender Jack Campbell would all be sitting out the last game of the season. The Bruins played on Thursday and picked up a 5-0 win over the Buffalo Sabres. They didn’t rest any of their star players, but that could change on Friday. This will be the sixth game in nine days for Boston, and it would not surprise me at all if they decided to rest Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy, among others. As a result, this game is very tough to handicap. If the Bruins are at full strength, this will be close to a 50-50 contest, however, if they do decide to rest key players, my model will move toward the home team. Either way, I don’t think I will be finding a value bet in this game.

Florida Panthers (-250) at Montreal Canadiens (+ 210)

The Florida Panthers rested most of their top players on Thursday, and more could get the day off on Friday, but this Montreal Canadiens team is bad. They defeated the Rangers last time out, but it was a glorified AHL game, and they were badly outplayed. The Panthers aren’t invincible, but they are more than capable of knocking off the Canadiens with a depleted roster. There will surely be bettors that claim there is value on the Canadiens on Friday, as this is the Panthers’ sixth game in nine days, but I won’t be one of them. The Panthers won the Presidents’ Trophy on Thursday, so they really have nothing to play for today, but I still expect them to control most of the shots and scoring chances.

Vegas Golden Knights (+ 150) at St. Louis Blues (-170)

St. Louis probably isn’t going to catch the Wild and obtain home-ice advantage in the opening round, so they could opt to rest some of their top stars on Friday when they host the Vegas Golden Knights. The Blues have been an offensive juggernaut for a while now, and if they’re at full strength, they will be in a good position to defeat their opponents. Vegas is out of the playoff picture, and they don’t have any reason to show up tonight, but I believe that’s baked into the line. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vegas sit some players out, given that a player like Mark Stone may have been playing injured to get his team to the playoffs, but I won’t make any assumptions. I don’t think there’s value in betting the Blues at -170, and while I don’t necessarily love the idea of betting on the Golden Knights, I would consider it if the home team decided to sit a bunch of regulars.

Colorado Avalanche (-115) at Minnesota Wild (-105)

Colorado played a dominant style of hockey for about two periods on Thursday, but they let their foot off the gas and the Predators came back to win in extra time. They didn’t rest any players, likely since they were still in contention for the Presidents’ Trophy, but now that the Florida Panthers have been crowned league champions, the Avalanche don’t have anything left to play for in the regular season. The Wild don’t either, though, and we could see them sit some regulars, too. Both teams played on Thursday, but this will be the sixth game in nine days for Minnesota, and they’re still without Jared Spurgeon, Matt Dumba and Mats Zuccarello.

Nashville Predators (-250) at Arizona Coyotes (+ 230)

Regardless of whether Nashville wins on Friday or not, they’re going to have to face either the Flames or the Avalanche in the first round. They’ll likely start Connor Ingram against the Coyotes, but the bigger question is how incentivized are they to win this game? I’m not expecting head coach John Hynes to rest players like Roman Josi or Matt Duchene, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they decided to do so.

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