NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 4/1

April 1, 2022 09:40 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

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Market Report Recap for Thursday, March 31st

Florida cruised to a 4-0 win over the Blackhawks and easily covered the puck line.

Record:

100-86, + 6.60 units, 3.4 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Friday, Arpil 1st

There are seven games scheduled for Thursday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Chicago Blackhawks (+ 280) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-340)

Kevin Lankinen will almost certainly be between the pipes for the Blackhawks on Friday when they visit the Lightning in the second half of a back-to-back, but because Tampa Bay will play again on Saturday against the Montreal Canadiens, there’s no telling who they will start in goal. Both Chicago and Montreal are bad hockey teams, and the Lightning are likely to win both games with relative ease, but backup Brian Elliott is likely to get the start in one of the games. If Andrei Vasilevskiy is in goal on Friday, the Lightning should be much bigger favorites than they are now, but this is a good example of why it’s important to look ahead at a team’s schedule before backing them in a game. I might take a position on the Lightning later in the day when there is more information available.

New York Islanders (+ 160) at New York Rangers (-180)

The Islanders are set to play their sixth game in nine days when they visit the Rangers at Madison Square Garden. This will be the third game in four days for the home team but starting goaltender Igor Shesterkin is rested. Semyon Varlamov and the Islanders picked up a win over the Columbus Blue Jackets on Thursday, but Ilya Sorokin remains out with an injury and that means he won’t be in the crease on Friday. The other option is 36-year-old Cory Schneider, who hasn’t played a game in the NHL since 2019-20, and that means Varlamov will probably make his third start in four days. The home team should be priced around -185, according to my model. There’s a chance Sorokin could be back in goal, but that seems unlikely given that he’s coming off a head injury.

Notes: Rangers’ forward Ryan Strome has missed the last two games and is questionable heading into this matchup.  

St. Louis Blues (+ 130) at Edmonton Oilers (-150)

St. Louis has won two games in a row, but they only have five wins in their last 14 games and they’re barely holding onto the third spot in the Central Division. The Blues could fall back into the wild card, and that would mean playing Colorado or Calgary in round one rather than Minnesota, Nashville or Dallas. Defenceman Torey Krug and forward Tyler Bozak are out due to injury, while forward Jordan Kyrou skated on Thursday and the team is hopeful that he will play on Friday. According to Evolving Hockey, the Blues rank 21st in expected goals at even strength with a 48.1 percent share. They’ve scored a little more than 53 percent of the goals at even strength, though, which is better than the Oilers can say. There’s not a lot separating the Oilers and Blues, but if Kyrou is in the lineup, and Ville Husso is between the pipes, the Oilers shouldn’t be priced any higher than -140.

Notes: The Blues will be in Calgary to take on the Flames on Saturday and that means Jordan Binnington and Ville Husso will likely split the games.

Anaheim Ducks (-120) at Arizona Coyotes (+ 100)

The Ducks lost their 11th game in a row on Thursday when they fell 3-2 to the Stars in overtime on home ice, but they have a chance to end the skid on Friday in Arizona. The Coyotes snapped a seven-game losing streak with a win over the Sharks earlier this week, but they will be without forward Clayton Keller suffered a season-ending injury in the game and put a damper on things. These are two of the worst offensive teams in the league, and both teams have gotten a lot worse recently due to injuries, and in the Ducks’ case, trades. Anaheim is missing Jakob Silfverberg and Ryan Getzlaf due to injury, and they traded away Rickard Rakell, Hampus Lindholm and Josh Manson, so this team is a lot different than the one bettors came to know over the first half of the season. I’d like to know where the offense is going to come from, because both lineups are rough, but defense is a big concern, too.

Bet Summary:

There are no recommended bets currently.

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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