NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 3/4

March 4, 2022 10:30 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Thursday, March 3rd

Florida dominated the Senators, and should’ve won by more than three goals, but I only needed them to win by at least two. The Panthers covered the puck line at -155 for a small profit.

Record:

84-72, + 3.2 units, 2.0 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Friday, March 4th

There are seven games scheduled for Friday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

New Jersey Devils (+ 140) at New York Rangers (-160)

If you take away Igor Shesterkin, the Rangers are not a good hockey team. New York is 29th in shot attempt percentage, and without Shesterkin, they would be getting outscored on a regular basis. The Rangers rank 18th on offense, and Shesterkin is the only reason that only three teams have allowed fewer goals per 60 minutes. The Rangers, who have allowed 59 shot attempts per 60, are not a good defensive team. The Devils aren’t a good team either, but now that they’re healthy they are a tougher team to play against. Their goaltending is a big issue, though, as John Gillies has an .887 save percentage and Nico Daws has been hit or miss. Daws started the last two games, so Gillies is the likely starter on Friday. Assuming Shesterkin is in goal, there really isn’t anything egregious about how this game is currently priced.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-270) at Detroit Red Wings (+ 230)

Tampa Bay originally opened at -350, but now their odds sit at -270 because they’re on the second half of a back-to-back and Brian Elliott is expected to start in goal. The Lightning were embarrassed on Thursday, though, losing 5-1 to the Penguins, and there’s a chance that they could go back to Andrei Vasilevskiy on Friday. I believe Elliott is the more likely starter, but I don’t feel comfortable ruling out the possibility that Vasilevskiy will be back between the pipes.

Check back later for an update.

Minnesota Wild (-200) at Buffalo Sabres (+ 175)

The Wild scratched and clawed their way to a 5-4 victory in Philadelphia on Thursday after trailing at four different points in the game. Cam Talbot was in goal against the Flyers, which means Kaapo Kakhonen is expected to get the start in Buffalo on Friday. The win snapped a four-game losing streak for the Wild, but they’ve only picked up four wins in their last 11 games. Kakhonen gives them a better chance to win a given game, but this is a tough spot given that they’re playing their second game in two nights with travel. Buffalo is coming off a big 5-1 win over the Maple Leafs, but the team had lost six straight games prior to that, all by a margin of at least two goals. According to my model, the Wild should be priced around -190 and that means I probably won’t end up with a position on either side.

Updates: Craig Anderson and Kaapo Kakhonen will be the starting goaltenders.

Los Angeles Kings (-150) at Columbus Blue Jackets (+ 130)

Elvis Merzlikins will start in goal for the Blue Jackets, who will also get Zach Werenski back in the lineup. It’s unclear who will start for the Kings, but according to my model, a fair price is between -130 and -145. Los Angeles has dropped two games in a row, but I wouldn’t say they have cooled off. The Kings are a strong team, with good underlying metrics, and they should win this game more often than the Blue Jackets.

Pittsburgh Penguins (+ 115) at Carolina Hurricanes (-135)

Carolina and Pittsburgh both played on Thursday. The Penguins defeated the Lightning in Tampa Bay by a score of 5-1 while the Hurricanes lost to the Capitals in Washington by a score of 4-0. Both teams will be looking for a win on Friday as there isn’t a whole lot of separation between them in the Metropolitan Division standings. Both teams went with their starters in goal on Thursday, but I wouldn’t rule out Frederik Andersen and Tristan Jarry getting another start on Friday. This is an important game, and I think it would be a mistake to assume that the starting goaltenders will be Casey DeSmith and Antti Raanta.

Update: Casey DeSmith and Antti Raanta are the starting goaltenders.

Dallas Stars (-110) at Winnipeg Jets (-110)

This will be the third time that these two teams meet up since Feb. 11th. Dallas took the first two games in overtime, but the Jets didn’t deserve to get that far. They might get a boost if Nikolaj Ehlers returns to the lineup, as he hopes to play on Friday, but it would have been better if that stayed out of the news until today. The Jets should be priced around -115 if Ehlers plays, but with the market anticipating his return, it doesn’t look like the price is going to come down. I would consider betting the Jets as a home underdog, at around even money, but with the consensus line sitting at -110 each way, it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen. Dallas is a mediocre team, but at least they’re consistent and most nights you know what you’re going to get out of them.

Updates: Tyler Seguin and Miro Heiskanen will be game-time decisions due to illness. Braden Holtby and Connor Hellebuyck will start in goal. If Seguin and Heiskanen are out, and Ehlers is in, the Jets should be priced closer to -135, but the line will probably move quickly.

Vegas Golden Knights (-125) at Anaheim Ducks (+ 105)

Vegas fell 5-2 to the Boston Bruins on Thursday. Max Pacioretty was not in the lineup, and he is not expected to return anytime soon. Jack Eichel has been good, but without Mark Stone and Pacioretty, the Golden Knights are likely going to continue to struggle to generate offense. The Ducks aren’t a strong team, but Vegas will be tired, and Laurent Brossoit will probably get the start in goal. That will give Anaheim an edge in goal, but it’s worth mentioning that John Gibson has been struggling recently. He was great through the first few months of the season, but he hasn’t been giving his team as much of a lift as of late. According to my model, the Golden Knights should be priced around -120.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

There are no recommended bets currently.

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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