NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 3/25

March 25, 2022 11:21 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

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Market Report Recap for Thursday, March 24th

Florida held a 4-2 lead with less than five minutes to play in regulation, but the Canadiens potted another goal and the Panthers failed to cover the puck line. Tough loss.

Record:

96-81, + 6.52 units, 3.6 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Friday, March 25th

There are five games scheduled for Friday, but it’s not a great board.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Pittsburgh Penguins (-120) at New York Rangers (+ 100)

This is a big game. New York has one game in hand on Pittsburgh, but the Penguins have a three-point lead and winning the division is still on the table. There’s only six points separating the Carolina Hurricanes, who are the top seed in the Metropolitan Division, and the Rangers, who are in the third spot. Igor Shesterkin and Tristan Jarry are expected to be the starting goaltenders and I can’t see any reason why that wouldn’t be the case. My model prices the Penguins at around -125, which means I’m hoping that their odds become more enticing.

Update: Tristan Jarry will start for the Penguins as expected.

Washington Capitals (-190) at Buffalo Sabres (+ 170)

The Capitals are in the final wild card spot with 80 points. That’s 13 points ahead of the Columbus Blue Jackets. Barring a total collapse, the only direction Washington can go is up, but there’s a decent chance that they stay where they’re at. Still, the Capitals should have enough motivation to win games down the stretch, and Friday’s game in Buffalo is winnable. That doesn’t mean there is a good betting opportunity here, though, at least not yet. Some bettors obviously like the Sabres enough to back them, as the odds on the favorite have changed from -210 to -190, but since my model prices the game at -190 in favor of Washington, I haven’t felt the need to get involved.

Notes: Ilya Samsonov will start in goal for the Capitals.

Columbus Blue Jackets (+ 160) at Winnipeg Jets (-180)

Connor Hellebuyck and the Winnipeg Jets lost to the Ottawa Senators on Thursday by a score of 5-2. It was a big blow to their playoff chances, and the team won’t have any time to regroup as they are scheduled to host the Blue Jackets on Friday. Eric Comrie will start in goal for the Jets, and he’s been good this season, posting a .920 save percentage. The Blue Jackets are hit or miss, and the Jets are the superior team, but between the schedule impact, and the downgrade in goal, the door is open for an upset. It isn’t likely, though, as my model estimates that the Jets should be priced around -155.

Notes: Elvis Merzlikins is expected to start in goal for Columbus.

Philadelphia Flyers (+ 330) at Colorado Avalanche (-400)

After defeating the Blues by a score of 5-2 in St. Louis on Thursday, the Flyers visit the Avalanche in Colorado on Friday. It’s the second meeting between the two teams. Colorado won the first meeting 7-5 back on Dec. 6th. It was a wild game, but it was goaltender Justus Annunen’s first and only start in goal for the Avalanche, and nobody should be expecting a repeat performance from the Flyers. Philadelphia is playing their sixth game in nine days, and they’re set to finish the season playing 11 out of their final 18 games on the road. This is a bad hockey team that just traded away their best player, and it’s going to be a brutal stretch given that the schedule has already been so condensed. The Avalanche bulked up at the trade deadline, and even though they’re without their captain, Gabriel Landeskog, my model prices them around -480 if Darcy Kuemper is in goal.

Notes: Carter Hart is expected to start for the Avalanche.

Arizona Coyotes (+ 330) at Calgary Flames

The Flames blew a 3-1 lead to the San Jose Sharks on Tuesday, and now they’re back in action against the Coyotes on Friday. This is the first half of a back-to-back, though, as Calgary will host Edmonton on Saturday. It’s unclear who will start in goal for the Flames, but if it’s Dan Vladar, I would say that the market has priced the game somewhat correctly, however, if it’s Jacob Markstrom, the home team should be priced closer to -490. The Coyotes have been a lot more competitive in 2022, but they’re missing Jacob Chychrun, their best defenceman, and the Flames haven’t lost back-to-back games in almost three months.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

There are no recommended bets currently.

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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