NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 3/18

March 18, 2022 10:33 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Thursday, March 17th

Pittsburgh was the only recommended bet and after blowing a 2-0 lead, they held on to win in a shootout.

Record:

94-78, + 7.27 units, 4.1 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Friday, March 18th

There are six games scheduled for Friday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Philadelphia Flyers (+ 125) at Ottawa Senators (-145)

The Flyers are in Ottawa to take on the Senators following an emotional night. Claude Giroux celebrated playing his 1000th game on Thursday in Philadelphia and he did not travel with the team to Canada as it sounds like he will be dealt to a contender before the trade deadline. Martin Jones will likely start in goal for the Flyers, who will be in tough without their best player. The Senators have struggled all season, but thing have been especially bad lately. Ottawa has only won five of their last 18 games and have had bad injury luck. Drake Batherson is still out due to an ankle injury and Thomas Chabot and Tim Stutzle have joined him on the injured list. My model prices the Senators at around -130, but I’m not confident in its assessment of either team under these circumstances and I’m going to stay away from this game.

Washington Capitals (+ 135) at Carolina Hurricanes (-155)

Both Washington and Carolina played on Thursday. The Capitals earned a big 7-2 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets to create more space between them in the standings, while the Hurricanes fell to the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-2. Antti Raanta and Ilya Samsonov will likely be the starting goaltenders, but nothing has been confirmed by either team. A month ago, I would’ve been more than happy to lay -150 on the Hurricanes, but since the All-Star break their offense grades out as the fourth worst in the NHL, at 2.25 goals per 60 minutes. The Capitals, meanwhile, have been scoring at a rate of 4.25 goals per 60 minutes. Carolina has still been great defensively, on the surface, but they’ve probably been relying on their goaltenders too much. My model estimates that the Hurricanes will win the game about 59 percent of the time, which converts to -145, but given the current state of both teams, I think the game might be closer than that.

Boston Bruins (-115) at Winnipeg Jets (-105)

Patrice Bergeron has been ruled out for this game, and my model suggests that the Bruins should be priced as a small favorite if Linus Ullmark is in goal. Boston has had trouble putting lesser teams away lately, and they’ve been a frustrating team to bet on. Not having Bergeron in the lineup will only make things more difficult. The Jets are a hungry team in search of a playoff spot, and the Bruins are playing their third game in four days. Boston has a lot to play for as well, but there’s no incentive to bet them at -115.

Buffalo Sabres (+ 270) at Calgary Flames (-330)

The Sabres were destroyed in Edmonton on Thursday, losing 7-1, and now they’ll face an even tougher test in Calgary when they take on the Flames. There’s no word on who will start in goal for the Flames, and whether it’s Jacob Markstrom or Dan Vladar won’t matter in the big picture, but it does matter from a betting perspective. The Flames are as high as -370 at some shops, and at this point, it would be wise to wait and find out which goaltender the team is going to give starting duties to tonight. I might decide to make a bet on the Flames to cover the puck line, but that will happen when the team releases some more information.

Florida Panthers (-220) at Anaheim Ducks (+ 190)

At times, the Panthers look unstoppable, and other times, they look a lot more pedestrian than they should. After a 5-3 loss to a banged-up Vegas team on Thursday, Florida will face the Ducks on Friday in Anaheim. The Panthers will likely come away with the win, but there’s still no word on whether Sergei Bobrovsky will be back in the crease and that scares me. He’s been under the weather, and there’s a chance Spencer Knight or Jonas Johansson could get the start.

Colorado Avalanche (-260) at San Jose Sharks (+ 220)

Gabriel Landeskog is regarded as week-to-week, but the Avalanche have added Nico Sturm and Josh Manson to the roster via trades and they’re a deeper team than they were a few days ago. Sturm is a big physical presence who wins draws and is perfectly suited for playoff hockey, while Mason is a tough defender that will give the team a lift if he can cut down on the number of penalties he takes. San Jose was shut out by the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday and there’s a chance that Zachary Sawchenko could be making his third career start as an NHL goaltender. He’s done alright so far, but he hasn’t faced an offense like this before. Colorado hasn’t announced a starting goaltender yet and I’m going to wait to finalize my projection until then.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

There are no recommended bets currently.

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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