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Market Report Recap for Thursday, March 10th
Two puck line bets. One covered (Florida) and one did not (Boston) which worked out to a small loss.
Record:
88-76, + 2.82 units, 1.7 percent ROI
Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.
Market Report for Thursday, March 10th
There are just four games scheduled for Friday, but there is one bet that I feel strongly about.
Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:
Minnesota Wild (-200) at Columbus Blue Jackets (+ 175)
Both Minnesota and Columbus played on Friday. The Wild earned a 6-5 shootout win over the Red Wings, while the Blue Jackets fell 6-0 to the New York Islanders. Both teams had to travel to Ohio for this game. However, the Wild are playing their sixth game in nine days, and Thursday’s wild win over the Red Wings was just their sixth win in their last 15 games. Like the Wild, Columbus is a top offensive team, even if they didn’t show it on Friday. Goals could come in bunches today, as the Blue Jackets are one of the worst defensive teams in the league and the Wild have had one of the worse on-ice save percentages over the last month. Elvis Merzlikins and Kaapo Kakhonen are expected to be the starting goaltenders.
Vegas Golden Knights (+ 140) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-160)
I’ll have some of whatever oddsmakers were having when they set the line for this game at -140. This is the sixth game in nine days for the Golden Knights, who have lost eight of 13 games since the All-Star break, and their offensive game has been severely lacking, as they’ve scored two or fewer goals eight times during that stretch. Robin Lehner has been sent back to Vegas, which means Logan Thompson will likely get the start on Friday. Pittsburgh has had two days off, and they’ll be hungry after losing to both Carolina and Florida earlier this week. According to my model, the Penguins should be priced around -200, and therefore, for the first time all season, I’m going to recommend betting more than one unit since there is still a lot of positive expected value to be obtained. The Penguins are a good moneyline bet up to around -180, but I will only recommend betting to win one unit at those odds if it comes to it.
Notes: Tristan Jarry is expected to start in goal for Pittsburgh. Vegas forward Reilly Smith and defender Brayden McNabb missed Thursday’s game against Buffalo. McNabb is not with the team on the road.
Pick:
Pittsburgh Penguins -160 (to win 2 units)
Winnipeg Jets (+ 105) at New York Islanders (-125)
Both Winnipeg and New York played on Friday, and they each picked up a win. The Jets defeated the Devils in New Jersey, while the Islanders picked up handled the Blue Jackets on home ice. Connor Hellebuyck and Semyon Varlamov are expected to be the starting goaltenders. According to my model, the Islanders should be priced around -105.
Notes: Mat Barzal has missed the last six games and he will be a game-time decision on Friday, but head coach Barry Trotz said that Zdeno Chara has a much better chance of returning to the lineup.
Washington Capitals (-110) at Vancouver Canucks (-110)
Alex Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals have picked up the pace on offense as of late, averaging four goals per game over their last five outings, and Vitek Vanecek should be back in the crease on Friday. The Canucks have won eight of their last 10 games, and they’ve taken out some tough competition. Thatcher Demko should be between the pipes on Friday, and if he is, my model estimates that the Capitals will win the game approximately 51 percent of the time.
Bet Summary:
Early Bets:
Pittsburgh Penguins -160 (to win 2 units)
Player Prop Bets:
Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI
There are no recommended player prop bets currently.