NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 2/25

February 25, 2022 10:03 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Thursday, Feb. 24th

There were no recommended bets on Thursday.

Record:

77-70, + 0.2 units, 0.1 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Friday, Feb. 25th

There are six games scheduled for Friday, and I have one early bet on a home team to cover the puck line.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Columbus Blue Jackets (+ 280) at Carolina Hurricanes (-340)

J-F Berube picked up his third win in a row in Florida on Thursday, as the Blue Jackets defeated the Panthers by a score of 6-3. The Panthers surprised everyone by starting Joonas Johansson in place of Sergei Bobrovsky, and that’s a big reason why the Blue Jackets were able to pull of the upset. It’s unclear who will start in goal for the Blue Jackets on Friday, as Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins are both on injured reserve. The Hurricanes have been off for three days and Frederik Andersen is expected to start in goal. Defender Tony DeAngelo will miss about a month, which isn’t ideal, but the Blue Jackets are missing Zach Werenski, and the Hurricanes should be priced around -440, according to my model. Of course, -340 is a big price to pay, and betting the Hurricanes to cover the puck line (-1.5) is justifiable because these markets are correlated. The Blue Jackets have won four in a row and have scored at least six goals in three of those games, but they’ve allowed at least three goals in each of those games and the Hurricanes are arguably the best defensive team in the league. The Blue Jackets are playing over their heads.

Notes: Frederik Andersen was in the starter’s crease this morning.

Update: J-F Berube will start his second game in as many nights, and Zach Werenski will not play.

Pick:

Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line -1.5, -135

Buffalo Sabres (+ 255) at St. Louis Blues (-310)

The Sabres are the in the middle of a five-game road trip, and the team has lost seven of their last 10, including four in a row to Ottawa, Colorado, Columbus and Montreal. Their injury list is long, and Victor Olofsson is the most notable player that’s currently absent from the lineup. The Blues are healthy, and while it’s unclear who will start in goal for the team, they shouldn’t be priced any lower than -260.

New Jersey Devils (+ 110) at Chicago Blackhawks (-130)

Dougie Hamilton made his return to the Devils’ lineup on Thursday, and New Jersey embarrassed the Penguins in Pittsburgh by a score of 6-1. Nico Daws ended up getting the start for New Jersey, which means John Gillies will probably be in goal on Friday. The Blackhawks have had four days off, but it wasn’t enough time for them to get healthy, as Jonathan Toews and Jake McCabe will not play. Kevin Lankinen was activated from injured reserve recently, but I would bet on Marc-Andre Fleury getting the start on Friday, while Lankinen gets back into the swing of things. According to my model, the Blackhawks should be priced around -120 if that’s the case.

Update: I was wrong. Fleury will not start, as Kevin Lankinen will be between the pipes for the Blackhawks on Friday.

Winnipeg Jets (+ 230) at Colorado Avalanche (-270)

Nathan MacKinnon did not play on Wednesday, and he’s listed as day-to-day, but if the Jets play like they did in Dallas earlier this week, it won’t matter. Connor Hellebuyck almost stole a win for Winnipeg, but the Jets were awful in front of him. According to my model, the Jets should be priced around + 220 if MacKinnon isn’t in the Colorado lineup, and there would be some value on the Avalanche if he is in the lineup, but not enough to justify laying -270. Winnipeg is still without Nikolaj Ehlers, and they’re also missing Dylan Demelo, Andrew Copp and Cole Perfetti, and it’s going to be up to Hellebuyck to carry the load again on Friday.

Update: It looks like Nathan MacKinnon will be back in the lineup.

Vegas Golden Knights (-250) at Arizona Coyotes (+ 220)

Robin Lehner is still day-to-day, according to the team, so it sounds like Laurent Brossoit or Logan Thompson will be in the crease for the Golden Knights on Friday in Arizona. The Golden Knights won their last game, 4-1 over the Sharks, but they were shutout twice in the three games prior, and loss all three. They will likely earn a victory over the Coyotes on Friday, but according to my model, their price tag of -250 is too high and betting on them would be -EV.

Los Angeles Kings (-115) at Anaheim Ducks (-105)

This is a big game with big playoff implications, as the Kings currently hold a two-point lead over the Ducks in the Pacific Division standings. There’s no doubt that the Kings are the better team, and if they start goaltender Jonathan Quick, my model thinks they should be priced around -117. John Gibson should start for Anaheim. He was having a great season up until a couple of weeks ago. Gibson has saved the team approximately nine goals above expected on the season, according to Evolving Hockey, but he’s cost them about 10 goals above expected over his last four games. I feel confident that Los Angeles will control shot attempts and scoring chances in the game, but from a betting perspective, it doesn’t look like I’ll be incentivized to bet on them.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line -1.5, -135

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

 

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