NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 2/11

February 11, 2022 08:51 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Thursday, Feb. 10th

There were no recommended plays on Thursday, mostly due to technical difficulties. I took the Flames as a home dog at around + 125 when it was confirmed that Jacob Markstrom would be in goal, but I could not log onto the VSiN website to update the report. Either way, I had my first profitable night in what seemed like forever, and although it won’t change my public record, I feel a lot better today than I did yesterday.

Also, I want to talk about the Propagator for a minute. Things obviously never went the way that I hoped they would, as managing a prop model during the pandemic became a nightmare. I was hoping that things would settle down, and I would get into a rhythm going into the playoffs, but VSiN’s partnership with Range Hockey has come to an end.

Cole Anderson, the brains behind the Propagator and Range Hockey, was hired by the Philadelphia Flyers as a Lead Data Analyst and can no longer continue working in the sports betting space in this compacity. The Flyers made a great hire, and I wish Cole all the best as he tries to help them win their first Stanley Cup since 1975.

Record:

71-66, -2.05 units, -1.5 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Friday, Feb. 11th

There are just four games scheduled for Friday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Winnipeg Jets (+ 140) at Dallas Stars (-160)

Dallas and Winnipeg are both coming off wins over Central Division rivals, and now they’re set to do battle with each other as they try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. The Jets have one game in hand on the Stars, but Dallas has a five-point lead on the Jets. Neither team is currently expected to make the playoffs, but the Stars are positioned to do so about twice as often as the Jets. A regulation win for Winnipeg would put them just three points behind Dallas, but a loss in regulation would give the Stars a seven-point lead with less than half the season to go. There’s a lot at stake, and the Jets aren’t at full strength. Nikolaj Ehlers, Pierre-Luc Dubois and several other regulars are out of the lineup for the Jets, and according to my model, the Stars should be priced around -150.

Update: Connor Hellebuyck is likely going to start in goal for the Jets, and Pierre-Luc Dubois and Neal Pionk are going to be back in the lineup after clearing COVID protocol. Dubois will apparently be eased back into the lineup, so I am only taking a small position on the Jets.

Pick: 

Winnipeg Jets + 140 (half size)

New York Islanders (+ 125) at Edmonton Oilers (-145)

Edmonton finally made a coaching change after another embarrassing loss at home. Jay Woodcroft takes over for Dave Tippett and the Oilers will look to turn their season around against the Islanders on Friday. Woodcroft comes from the American Hockey League, where he has coached the Bakersfield Condors since 2018-19. The Condors won the Calder Cup in 2020-21 with Woodcroft behind the bench. Based on what I’ve learned about Woodcroft over the last couple of days, it seems like we could see some big changes in Oil Country, but don’t expect them to happen overnight. This is the third game in four days for the Oilers, and the new head coach doesn’t play goal. According to my model, the Oilers should be priced somewhere between -135 and -145, depending on the starting goaltenders. It’ll be interesting to see how the Oilers respond to their new coach, but I don’t have any interest in this game from a betting perspective.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-300) at Arizona Coyotes (+ 250)

The Lightning are coming off a loss to the Colorado Avalanche on Thursday, which means we’ll probably see Brian Elliott get the start in Arizona on Friday. The Coyotes were on the road for a set of back-to-back games in Vancouver and Seattle, so this will be their third game in four days. The Lightning will win the game approximately 76 percent of the time with Elliott in goal, according to my model, which converts to a fair line of around -320. That only translates to about a one percent edge at -300, but there’s a good possibility that the market will move on Arizona once Elliott is announced as the starter. In other words, there might be an opportunity to lay the favorite later in the day, but I won’t be doing so unless I believe I’m going to get the best of it. The Lightning have not been scoring many goals lately, but playing the Coyotes, even tired, should help them pad their offensive stats, as only the Canadiens have allowed more goals on a per 60-minute basis than the Coyotes.

Seattle Kraken (+ 130) at Anaheim Ducks (-150)

Sonny Milano might return to the Ducks’ lineup on Friday, but Josh Manson will not play. The Kraken are coming off a 5-2 loss to the Coyotes, while the Ducks are playing their first game since Jan. 31st. Karel Vejmelka and John Gibson are expected to be the starting goaltenders. Jamie Oleksiak could be back in the Kraken lineup, so I am going to pencil him in just in case, as he’s a serviceable defender.

The Ducks have been playing well on the surface, winning four of their last six, but their underlying numbers suggest that they aren’t going to be able to sustain it, unless they start to play better. Anaheim ranks 25th by expected goals, according to Evolving Hockey. They’ve played 16 games since the end of December and have only outshot their opponents in four of those games. According to my model, the Ducks should be priced around -155, but that says more about how bad the Kraken are.

Anaheim has dealt with injuries, so there is a chance that they could show signs of improvement and revert to the team that we saw at the start of the season, but their current form is poor and they’re still not at full strength. They’ve also been off for a long time, too, and that isn’t necessarily a good thing. Seattle is a bad team, but I’m going to need to see the line drop closer to -140 before I will consider laying the favorite in this one.

Bet Summary:

Late Adds: 

Winnipeg Jets + 140 (half size)

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended play prop bets currently.

 

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