NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 1/28

January 28, 2022 11:10 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Thursday, Jan. 27th

The two recommended bets split 1-1 for a small profit on Thursday. The Kings were in full control of the game from start to finish, while the Hurricanes failed to cover the puck line thanks to an awful middle frame in which they let the game get away from them. Ottawa’s penalty killing also deserves some of the credit. Moving on to Friday.

Record:

71-61, + 3.95 units, 3.1 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Friday, Jan. 28th

There are five games scheduled for Friday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Detroit Red Wings (+ 200) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-240)

The Penguins fell 2-1 to the Kraken on Thursday night, but they have a good chance to bounce back on Friday when they host the Red Wings. The Penguins will be tired, as this will be their sixth game in nine days, but five of four of the previous five games were in Pittsburgh. Tristan Jarry started on Thursday, which means we should see Casey DeSmith between the pipes on Friday. But, the big question here is who will start for Detroit? Thomas Greiss will not play this weekend, and the Red Wings are set to host the Maple Leafs in Detroit on Saturday. Alex Nedeljkovic has started all but one game since Jan. 8th and running him on back-to-back nights (something the Red Wings did last week with poor results) is a terrible idea. Calvin Picard appears likely to get one of the next two starts, but it’s difficult to predict which one. According to my model, there could be some value on the Penguins if that happens. However, because the Penguins are a big favorite, I’m going to be cautious and wait for more information.

Update: Calvin Picard and Casey DeSmith will be the starting goaltenders. I was able to get a little bit of the Penguins on the puck line at -105 and -110, but the line moved to -120 across the board before I could get it out to all of you.

Minnesota Wild (-140) at New York Rangers (+ 120)

Cam Talbot has been confirmed as the starting goalie for the Wild, while Igor Shesterkin is expected to be between the pipes for the Rangers. Long-time Rangers’ goaltender Henrik Lundqvist will have his jersey retired before the game. The Rangers were defeated by the Blue Jackets 5-3 in Columbus on Thursday, but the team suffered an even bigger loss when superstar defender Adam Fox suffered an injury. Fox is listed day-to-day and is not expected to play on Friday. This puts the Rangers in a tough spot, as Fox has been a big part of their success and it would be an understatement to say that the team isn’t as good when he’s not on the ice. The Wild are almost back to full strength, but Jonas Brodin is still due to an upper-body injury. According to my model, the Rangers should be priced around + 120, and therefore, the Wild are going to have to pick up more steam if I’m going to get roped into taking the home dog.

Update: After running my model again with the Rangers updated lineup, a fair price ended up being closer to + 125. So, while there's a little bit of value at + 130, I'm going to pass. Igor Shesterkin will start in goal for the Rangers.

Colorado Avalanche (-180) at Chicago Blackhawks (+ 160)

The initial diagnosis for Nathan MacKinnon is a broken nose, after a hit from Bruins’ forward Taylor Hall. He wasn’t expected to travel with the team to Chicago. This is a big blow to the Avalanche, and oddsmakers didn’t really account for his absence when hanging the opening line. According to my model, there’s a little bit of value on the home team but not enough to justify making a bet. The Avalanche have been a frustrating team to handicap as of late. They’re winners of 12 of 13 games since returning to action but they’ve gone to overtime seven times and have only shown flashes of dominance over the last month. No team does that by design, and although the Avalanche will probably clean up their game down the stretch, losing MacKinnon doesn’t help.

Notes: Jonathan Toews will not play. Pavel Francouz and Marc-Andre Fleury will be the starting goaltenders.

Washington Capitals (+ 105) at Dallas Stars (-125)

John Klingberg practiced on Thursday and the team is hopeful that the defender will be able to play on Friday when they host the Capitals. Washington will be without T.J. Oshie and Nick Jensen. If Klingberg isn’t in the lineup, and the Capitals are still an underdog, I will take them, as my model currently prices Dallas as a -105 favorite. In other words, given that + 105 is a fair price if Klingberg is in the lineup, the Capitals would be a value bet if he is not. Klingberg probably doesn’t want to miss this game, though, as the franchise is set to retire defenseman Sergei Zubov’s No. 56 prior to the game. Klingberg is the best Stars’ defender since Zubov, and this night probably means a lot to him. The Stars have had two days off to prepare for this game.

Notes: Braden Holtby will start for the Stars. Vitek Vanecek will start for the Capitals.

Boston Bruins (-300) at Arizona Coyotes (+ 250)

Boston is coming off a loss against the Avalanche, but who isn’t? The Bruins won’t have to deal with Karel Vejmelka, who appears to be the only serviceable goaltender that the Coyotes have, as Scott Wedgewood will be in goal on Friday. The Coyotes have had two days off and they are scheduled to host the Sabres on Saturday. Boston doesn’t play again until Sunday, when they will be in Dallas to take on the Stars. Tuukka Rask is expected to start in goal for the Bruins. Matt Grzelcyk is still listed as day-to-day with an upper-body injury. According to my model, this game is priced appropriately.

Bet Summary

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended play prop bets currently.

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