NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 1/21

January 21, 2022 07:42 AM
USATSI_17489397

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report Recap for Thursday, Jan. 20th

Once again, focusing on the two games that I had the most interest in proved to be the right strategy, as the Predators defeated the Jets 5-2 and the Panthers shut out the Oilers 6-0.

Record: 66-58, + 2.4 units, 2 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Friday, Jan. 21st

There are eight games scheduled for Friday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

New York Rangers (+ 140) at Carolina Hurricanes (-160)

The Rangers are coming off a big win over the Maple Leafs, but they're on the road for this one, and the Hurricanes are riding high after they trounced the Bruins by a score of 7-1 on Tuesday. Of course, there's always the concern that a team coming off a big win will come into their next game feeling a little too good about themselves, but the Hurricanes are used to winning in dominant fashion, and intuitively, I'd be more concerned about the Rangers. New York is not a good team at even strength, and they rely on their special teams, and Igor Shesterkin, to win games. However, the Hurricanes have Frederik Andersen (who was in the starter's crease at practice) and are excellent on defense. They're also better than the Rangers on special teams, specifically the penalty kill, which ranks as the best in the league. According to my model, the Hurricanes should be priced north of -170, and therefore, I recommend laying -160 or better on the moneyline.

Pick:

Carolina Hurricanes -160

Update: Shortly after I added the Hurricanes bet to the report, it was announced that Alexandar Georgiev would be starting in goal for the Rangers and the line blew up. A good bet turned into a great one. If only I was able to get more down.

Pittsburgh Penguins (-220) at Columbus Blue Jackets (+ 190)

Both the Blue Jackets and Penguins are coming off wins last night, and both teams have had to travel to Columbus for this game. The game line opened around -180 but moved overnight and into the morning to where it sits now at -220. Casey DeSmith and Jonas Korpisalo are expected to be the starting goaltenders. According to my model, the Penguins should be priced around -215. I guess I wasn't expected so many soft opening lines and I missed a value play on the Penguins. That value is now gone, and it doesn't look like the market is going to come back.

Dallas Stars (-110) at Detroit Red Wings (-110)

Jake Oettinger and Alex Nedeljkovic are expected to be the starting goaltenders on Friday. Dallas earned a comeback-win over the Buffalo Sabres. Braden Holtby started in goal and picked up the win despite allowing four goals. Detroit has been off for three days. According to my model, the Stars should be priced around -110, so it doesn't look like there's going to be any reason to pay attention to this game.

Update: Braden Holtby will start in goal for the Stars, and that changes my handicap quite a bit. The Red Wings should now be priced around -110.

Arizona Coyotes (+ 220) at New York Islanders (-260)

Scott Wedgewood will start in goal for the Coyotes on Friday. They will play the Rangers in New York on Saturday.

More details to come.

Minnesota Wild (-115) at Chicago Blackhawks (-105)

Some heavy steam came in on the Blackhawks earlier today, but I don't know that it was warranted, as my model prices the Wild around -115. Minnesota is missing a few key players in Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin and goaltender Cam Talbot, and the Blackhawks have been hot as of late, but looking at the bigger picture, the Wild should be priced as a favorite in Chicago. If the line continues to trend toward the home team, I will consider betting on the Wild to win the game straight up.

Notes: Marc-Andre Fleury will start for the Blackhawks, and Kirby Dach has been removed from the COVID list. Kaapo Kakhonen is expected to start for the Wild.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-225) at Anaheim Ducks (+ 195)

Tampa Bay is scheduled to play the Sharks in San Jose on Saturday, which makes it tough to tell whether or they're going to start Andrei Vasilevskiy or Brian Elliott, and I think the current game line suggests that the market doesn't really know what to do either. There's also a lot of questions about what the Ducks' lineup is going to look like with so many players listed as day-to-day due to injury and illness. Check back later for an update.

Florida Panthers (-190) at Vancouver Canucks (+ 170)

J.T. Miller and Thatcher Demko have joined Bo Horvat, Connor Garland and Jaroslav Halak in COVID protocol. This means the Canucks are probably going to have to start Michael Dipetro in goal and it also means that they should have quite a bit of trouble generating offense. The Canucks have had a lot go their way since Bruce Boudreau took the job as head coach, but they’re about to face one of the best teams in the league and their lineup has been hit extremely hard by COVID. According to my model, the Panthers should be priced somewhere between -210 and -220, depending on who starts in goal. A tired Sergei Bobrovsky is a better option than a rested Spencer Knight, but even if it’s the latter, the Panthers should still be priced around -210. Florida hasn’t played up to their standard over the last couple of games, and they were fortunate that the Oilers didn’t capitalize on their chances early in Thursday’s game, but bettors should expect a solid effort out of the Panthers in Vancouver on Friday. The Canucks performed poorly on the road against Florida, Tampa Bay and Carolina earlier this month, and even though the Panthers are playing tired on the road this time around, it’s not going to deter me from laying the favorite in this spot.

Notes: I think there’s a chance that the Panthers could go back to Bobrovsky on Friday, but he was busy in Edmonton on Thursday, so they might choose to give him the night off. I’m going to bet the game as if Spencer Knight is the expected starter, and therefore, the Panthers are a value bet up to -195. Shop around, though, as there might be some shops that have been slow to move on from the opening number.

Pick:

Florida Panthers -190

St. Louis Blues (-170) at Seattle Kraken (+ 150)

The Blues are the healthiest they've been all season long, and the Kraken are missing a couple of key players in Jaden Schwartz and Jamie Oleksiak, but the game line hasn't really budged since opening at -170. According to my model, it's a fair price, too, and I feel even more confident in my assessment now that it appears the market agrees.

Bet Summary

Early Bets:

Florida Panthers -190

Carolina Hurricanes -160

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended play prop bets currently.

back to news

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

The Lombardi Line: Bookmakers love parleys, when playing them, you want a mix of favorites and underdogs.

Pro Football Blitz: When you back teams on the raod you want a good running team, when you back teams at home you want a good passing team. With teams on the road usually the underdog, you want a team that can control time of possession like the Tennessee Titans.

 

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Shaun King: Eagles -6.5 vs Jaguars

Brendan Gaughan: Brad Keselowski Top 3 +600

View new sortable Picks at a Glance page for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Screen_Shot_2022-09-30_at_6.23.35_PM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

Close