NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 1/14

January 14, 2022 11:34 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Thursday, Jan. 13th

Thursday was brutal, and now I’m back in the hole. It sucks to be back in this position, but it is what it is. All four plays closed strong, and none of them seemed to have a chance of winning at any point during the night.

Record: 61-57, -1.42 units, -1.3 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -109

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Friday, Jan. 14th

There are just three games on Friday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Anaheim Ducks (+ 135) at Minnesota Wild (-155)

The Wild have two wins in their last two games, but prior to that, they had lost five in a row. Injuries to players like Cam Talbot, Jared Spurgeon, Joel Eriksson Ek, Jordan Greenway and Jonas Brodin have contributed to the Wild’s recent struggles, but they overcame an injury to Kirill Kaprizov that caused him to leave one game and miss another. It looks like Kaprizov will be back in the lineup on Friday, after participating in practice on Thursday, but Spurgeon, Brodin and Eriksson Ek will not be in the lineup, and Talbot will not play. Alex Goligoski is also out due to COVID. Backup goaltender Kaapo Kakhonen will make his third consecutive start in goal for the Wild. Meanwhile, the Ducks are almost back at full strength, minus John Gibson, but it’s unclear if Adam Henrique and Josh Mahura will return to the lineup on Thursday. Both players have been on the shelf for a while and have just recently returned to practice. Anthony Stolarz is expected to be between the pipes. According to my model, the Wild should be priced around -150, assuming Henrique and Mahura are both held out of the game.

Update: Troy Terry has been placed in COVID protocol, which is a big loss for the Ducks. I have a little bit of Minnesota -145, on the moneyline, but the line moved so fast that I wasn't able to get a full bet down, and can't recommend betting on the Wild at -165, as I believe that line is fair.

Dallas Stars (+ 180) at Florida Panthers (-210)

Jake Oettinger and Sergei Bobrovsky will start in goal for their respective teams. The Stars will be without Alexander Radulov and Denis Gurianov, who were recently placed in COVID protocol, while the Panthers will be without Patric Hornqvist for the same reason. According to my mode, the Panthers should be priced around -215, which is where the line sits now, and therefore there is no value. Florida has a rest advantage, and they’re arguably the best team in the league, but since the market bet this game into shape earlier and moved the consensus line to -210, I’m not able to recommend a bet on the home team, even though I would like to.

Arizona Coyotes (+ 450) at Colorado Avalanche (-600)

Well, here’s something you don’t see every day, or ever, really. And there’s a good reason why. Luck plays a big role in determining the outcomes of hockey games, and typically, there’s not enough a gap between the best and the worst team to justify prices north of -400. According to my model, the Avalanche should be priced around -575, which means I’m a long way from taking the dog and hoping that the impossible happens. Arizona will only win the game about 15 percent of the time, but + 450 implies that they have an 18 percent chance. There’s no value in taking the dog, and although you’ll win 85 percent of the time betting on the Avalanche, it would be a -EV bet at -600.

Bet Summary

There are no recommended bets for Friday currently.

Player Prop Bets for Friday, Jan. 14th:

Record: 113-109, -9.5 units, -3.6 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -108

Recap for Thursday, January 13th: Player prop bets went 3-2 on Thursday for a small profit. There are no recommended player prop bets for Friday currently.

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