NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 10/21

October 21, 2022 08:35 AM

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. Follow me on Twitter to stay up to date as I handicap the NHL each day.

Market Report for Friday, Oct. 21st

Recap: The Predators led 3-1 going into the third period but blew their lead and lost 5-3 in regulation. I haven’t been on the right side of comebacks in any of my 10 wins this season, but I’ve been on the wrong side of team’s blowing multi-goal in four out of my 10 losses. Lame. The market agreed with me (there was a lot of value in betting Nashville at -130 and -135) but we were all surprised when backup goaltender Kevin Lankinen was announced as the starter shortly before game time. Losing a small bet on Carolina made the night extra lousy and I’m back at .500 (and in the red) after four straight losses.

Wins: 10 Losses: 10 Units Won: -1.17 units ROI: -6.1 percent

I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.

Today: There are just three games on Friday as we head into a busy weekend of hockey action.

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-110) at Florida Panthers (-110)

Florida has looked like a far more dangerous team than the Lightning to start the season and have scored goals at a much higher rate. Tampa Bay has also been bad defensively, so I don’t think we’ll see them shutdown the Panthers like they did in the playoffs in 2021-22. Neither team is at full strength, though:

Out for Lightning Anthony Cirelli, Zach Bogosian and Philippe Myers

Out for Panthers: Aaron Ekblad, Anthony Duclair and Brandon Montour

My model suggests the Panthers should be priced as a slight favorite (somewhere between -115 and -120) but there isn’t enough value to justify betting -110. Florida doesn’t have the depth they did last season after trading MacKenzie Weegar, so it’s going to be a lot tougher to fill Ekblad’s spot in the lineup this time around.

Detroit Red Wings (-115) at Chicago Blackhawks (-105)

No Tyler Bertuzzi. No Jakub Vrana. And I still bet on the Red Wings? This is not how I wanted to head into the weekend. Detroit is a bad hockey team. But Chicago might be the worst team in the league. Both teams are rested, and in my opinion, the market is overestimating the Blackhawks’ home ice advantage. Detroit is a much more competent team on offense, and assuming Ville Husso starts in goal. Detroit has games against the Ducks and Devils coming up, but they’re spread out over four days. In other words, there are no back-to-back situations coming up and that means there’s a good chance they start their best goaltender on Friday. My model estimates that Detroit’s odds should be around -125, and so I am reluctantly betting on the Red Wings at -115 or better. Shop around, though. Some shops have this game listed closer to -105 or -110 on each side.

Bet: Detroit Red Wings -115 Stake: 1.15 units to win 1 unit

Seattle Kraken (+ 225) at Colorado Avalanche (-265)

Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog is out long term with an injury, and now defender Devon Toews is listed as day-to-day. It’s unclear whether Toews will play on Friday or not, but either way, the Avalanche should be able to pick up a win over the Kraken on Friday. However, it will be their first of two games in two days as they are scheduled to host the Vegas Golden Knights on Saturday. I could see Alex Georgiev getting the first start, but head coach Jared Bednar hasn’t singled either goaltender as his go-to guy yet. Seattle has lost four of its first five games and they’ve allowed at least four goals in each loss. My model prices the Avalanche at around -220 if Georgiev gets the nod, which means there could be some value in backing the Kraken, but the home team would have a better chance of winning the game if they start Pavel Francouz.

Follow me on Twitter to stay up to date throughout the day.

2021-22 Betting Season Recap:

NHL Betting Guide (Futures): 25.9 units

Reg Season (Sides and Totals): 6.22 units

Player Props:  -15.33 units

Playoffs (Sides and Totals):  -14.43 units

Thoughts: I tried to do too much last season (The Propagator is one example) because it was the first time that I was going to be producing content at large scale. I was worried that my typical betting habits would be seen as too selective and therefore not enough for the average VSiN subscriber. I was wrong.

Going forward: I am back to focusing on what has worked for me all along: Making long term forecasts for futures markets and handicapping all 1,312 regular season games.

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