NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 10/15

By Andy MacNeil  (VSiN.com) 

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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

Market Report Recap for Thursday, Oct. 14

Yesterday’s play on the Red Wings looked like it was going to be an easy winner, but the Lightning had other plans, erasing numerous deficits to win 7-6 in extra time. Player prop bets went 5-4 but unfortunately two of the losing bets carried odds of -200 or worse.

Records: 

Game Lines 0-2, -2.35 units

Player Props 13-10, - 0.35 units, -1.2 percent ROI

Market Report for Friday, October 15th

Although there are just three games on Friday, it looks like there’s at least two value bets to make and they’re both underdogs.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Chicago Blackhawks (+ 115) at New Jersey Devils (-135)

Devils’ goaltender MacKenzie Blackwood is doubtful for Friday’s game in New Jersey against the Chicago Blackhawks. Ty Smith, Damon Severson and Miles Wood are also questionable. The Devils do have a solid second option in goal, but given the cluster of injuries, this game looks like a coin flip and backing the Blackhawks at + 115 or better is a value bet.

Pick:

Chicago Blackhawks + 115

Note: It has now been confirmed that Marc-Andre Fleury will start on Saturday in Pittsburgh which means Kevin Lankinen will get the nod on Friday. None of this is a surprise as the game was handicapped with this scenario in mind and nothing has changed.

Vancouver Canucks (+ 135) at Philadelphia Flyers (-155)

Still waiting to hear word on whether Brock Boeser will suit up for the Canucks on Friday, and we don’t know who will start in goal, but I’m fine with + 135 here. If Boeser plays and Thatcher Demko starts, this will become a bigger wager, but I’m going to feel good about my bet even if Boeser is out and Jaroslav Halak gets the nod. The Flyers have no business being priced at -155.

Pick:

Vancouver Canucks + 135

Note: It looks like Boeser is out, according to reports, but what's done is done and the Canucks are still a strong play.

Player Props:

Sean Couturier Under 0.5 Points + 135 (DraftKings)

The Propagator prices this prop at -122 to the over, so expect this bet to lose approximately 55 percent of the time.

Note: An earlier version of this report listed this prop at + 170 because that was the price that was listed at DraftKings at that time. However, it has come to my attention that it might have been an error. Of course, it could've been corrected by a sharp bettor, but either way, I'm going to use + 135 for tracking purposes. I think it's only fair.

Minnesota Wild (-160) at Anaheim Ducks (+ 140)

John Gibson was able to help the Ducks steal a victory over Winnipeg in their season opener but we have now learned he will be out of the lineup Friday when they take on the Wild I don't have any interest in playing either side here because we still don't know who will start for Minnesota. The Wild play again on Saturday so Cam Talbot could get the night off. However, now that I know Anthony Stolarz is in goal for the Ducks, I'm making a rare play on a total and betting that the game will go over 5.5 goals.

Pick:

Over 5.5 Goals -105

Player Props:

Trevor Zegras Under 0.5 Points -140 (DraftKings)

Alex Goligoski Under 0.5 Points -190 (DraftKings)

Betting against Zegras to score a point on Wednesday was a sweat, but despite the fact that he was getting top-line minutes, the bet cashed. So, I'm going back to the well because the Propagator prices it closer to -180 and the Ducks had a lot of trouble with the Wild last season. Gogligoski plays on the top pair, but he doesn't get any time on the power play. The Propagator prices the under closer to -240 so despite the big price, it's a value bet.

Summary

Early Bets:

Chicago Blackhawks + 115

Vancouver Canucks + 135

Sean Couturier Under 0.5 Points + 135 (DraftKings)

Alex Goligoski Under 0.5 Points -190 (DraftKings)

Trevor Zegras Under 0.5 Points -140 (DraftKings)

Late Adds:

Wild-Ducks Over 5.5 Goals -105

Don’t forget there’s still time to pick up your copy of VSiN’s 2021-22 NHL Betting Guide and follow me on Twitter

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