NHL Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Thursday, November 17th

November 17, 2022 08:13 AM
USATSI_17978469
The Jets are one of the top teams in the Western Conference and they have a 5-1-1 record on home ice this season.

The NHL has scheduled 13 games on Thursday, and with just one game scheduled on Friday, bettors will feel a certain obligation to exhaust themselves looking for the best NHL bets today. I know I do. There’s a lot to cover (injuries, starting goaltenders etc.) so let’s get into NHL predictions and bets for today.

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Today’s NHL schedule:

REST

AWAY

HOME

REST

4/6

PHI

BOS

3

3

NYR

SEA

3

1

ANA

WPG

3

2

COL

CAR

2

3

ARI

VGK

1

2

CGY

TBL

1

2

NYI

NSH

1

1

DAL

FLA

1

1

MTL

CBJ

1

1

NJD

TOR

1

1

PIT

MIN

1

1

DET

SJS

1

1

WSH

STL

0

 

NHL Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Thursday, November 17th

With all the marquee matchups on Thursday, it’s a bit sickening that I had to immediately direct my attention toward two games that don't mean much in the grand scheme of things.

Monday’s Bets: Winnipeg Jets (-210), Winnipeg Jets -1.5 (+120), Montreal Canadiens -115 and Dallas Stars (+150)

Wins: 27 Losses: 28 Units Won: -0.44 units ROI: -0.9 percent

I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.

Anaheim Ducks (+190) at Winnipeg Jets (-210)

Bets: Winnipeg Jets (-210) to win one unit and Winnipeg Jets -1.5 (+120) to win 1.2 units

Winnipeg legends Teemu Selanne and Teppo Numminen will be inducted into the team’s Hall of Fame prior to the Jets’ game against the Anaheim Ducks on Thursday. It should fire up both teams, but the Jets have played excellent on home ice. Starter Connor Hellebuyck has played every home game so far and given the special occasion, and the fact he hasn’t played since November 12th, it's likely that head coach Rick Bowness will start him on Thursday. Anaheim has been dominated on the road this season, winning just two games against the San Jose Sharks. In games outside of California, the Ducks have been outscored 36-14.  Anaheim is the worst team in the league by expected goals, and arguably the worst team on defense, as no team allows more shots. The Jets have been off for three days, and my NHL betting model estimates that they will win the game approximately 73 percent of the time. That converts to fair odds of around -270, and that means I can justify betting the home team at -210 to win one unit. I’m also going to bet one unit on the Jets to cover the puck line (1.5 goals) at +120.

Starting goaltenders: Connor Hellebuyck and John Gibson are expected to start in goal for their respective clubs.

Notes: Winnipeg Jets’ forward Nikolaj Ehlers has yet to return from injury, but the team has gone 9-4-1 without him.

Montreal Canadiens (-115) at Columbus Blue Jackets (-105)

Bet: Montreal Canadiens (-115) to win one unit

Even at full strength, Columbus is one of the worst teams in the league, and now injuries to key players have started to pile up. Patrik Laine is out for at least a month with an ankle injury. Star defenseman Zach Werenski is expected to miss the rest of the season with a shoulder injury.  Adam Boqvist, Jakub Voracek, Nick Blankenburg and Justin Danforth are also on injured reserve. Defenseman Jake Bean and starting goaltender Elvis Merzlikins are also injured after leaving Tuesday’s game. Montreal shouldn’t be favored on the road very often, but this is one of those rare occasions. Under normal circumstances, this game would be a coin flip, as the current odds suggest, but my NHL betting model estimates that the Canadiens will win the game roughly 56 percent of the time and, therefore, I can justify betting the road team at -115, or better, to win one unit.

Shop around: I was able to bet the Canadiens at -109, and I see shops that are offering -110 and -111.

Starting goaltenders: Montreal has confirmed that Samuel Montembeault will start in goal. Merzlikins could not put any weight on his left leg following a goal against in the second period on Tuesday, and Joonas Korpisalo is the expected starter.

Dallas Stars (+150) at Florida Panthers (-170)

Bet: Dallas Stars (+150) to win 1.5 units

Update: I would no longer bet the Stars at this price now that Scott Wedgewood is expected to start in goal. See below for more.

Dallas has the offense to keep up with Florida, and assuming they start Jake Oettinger in goal, they'll have the edge in goal. Spencer Knight has been good so far this season (.922 save percentage) but it's a small sample size and he's been facing off against a lot of weak teams that don't generate much offense. The Panthers have been somewhat average on offense, while the Stars rank as the second-best team in the league in goals per 60 minutes and they're among the top-10 teams in the league when it comes to defense, which has never been one of Florida's strengths. My NHL betting model estimates that the Panthers should be priced around -135, and therefore, I am risking one unit on the Stars to win 1.5 units. Hopefully Dallas doesn't let us down like they did in Tampa Bay on Tuesday.

Starting goaltenders: Sergei Bobrovsky was the first goaltender off the ice at morning skate so he is now expected to start.

Update: Scott Wedgewood is expected to start in goal for Dallas and I would no longer recommend betting the Stars at +150. I'm hoping for the best, but I expect the Stars to lose roughly 60 percent of the time.

Philadelphia Flyers (+280) at Boston Bruins (-340)

After a surprisingly hot start, the Philadelphia Flyers have cooled off, losing seven of their last nine games. Goaltender Carter Hart has been great, but it was never going to be enough to save the team. The Flyers rank 31st on offense after 16 games, which is where they ranked after 82 games last season. My model suggests the Bruins should make easy work out of the Flyers on Thursday and continue their winning ways, but there's not quite enough value to justify betting on them to do so.

Starting goaltenders: Carter Hart and Linus Ullmark will start in goal.

Colorado Avalanche (+105) at Carolina Hurricanes (-125)

This game would be a lot more fun with Val Nichushkin, Gabriel Landeskog, Teuvo Teravainen and Frederik Andersen involved, but there's still a lot of star power here. The Avalanche were a small favorite at home against the Hurricanes on November 12th, a game in which they won by a score of a 4-1. Colorado owned roughly 60 percent of the expected goals in that game, and through that lens, it was Carolina's worst game of the season. My NHL betting model suggests a fair line for this game is around -115 in favor of the home team.

Starting goaltenders: Antti Raanta will start in goal for the Hurricanes.

New Jersey Devils (+120) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-140)

One screen will be reserved for this game whether I have action on it or not. My model suggests a fair price for this game is around -120 in favor of the home team, but it's probably (criminally) underrating the Devils at this point. It's mostly a strength of schedule thing. Obviously, it's something I have to take a look at. The the market continues to see value on the Devils and they're cleaning up. New Jersey is 13-3 and it's no fun missing out on a profitable run like that.

Starting goaltenders: Matt Murray will start in goal for Toronto and Vitek Vanecek will start in goal for New Jersey.

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