NHL Best Bets for Thursday, March 2nd: Kraken to buck interconference trend in Detroit
The Kraken closed at -180 against the Red Wings in Seattle back on February 18th, so whatever theory has driven the betting market to price this game as is, with both teams listed at -110, has holes in it, if you ask me.
Sure, on the surface the Red Wings, like the rest of the Eastern Conference teams, have dominated their Western Conference counterparts, but most of their success against has come against the worst teams in the West, not the best. Detroit is 4-8 versus Western Conference playoff teams overall and 2-3 at home this season.
Seattle might not be among the best teams, but they are in a playoff spot, and they are one of four Western Conference teams with a positive ROI in games against teams from the East. The Kraken’s 17-12 record against the East.
Things haven’t been going well for the Kraken as of late, but the market has gone overboard here. I mean, we’re talking about more than a 10 percent swing from one game to the next in a matchup where the home team has virtually no advantage and their opponents are better on the road (18-9-3) than they are at home (15-12-3).
Detroit was on a roll, but since Seattle snapped their five-game win streak, the Red Wings have lost three of four games and have only scored three goals in their last three games. The Red Wings rank 26th in expected goals percentage (45.2) over the last month.
There was bound to be some price discrepancies across the market, and that’s the case here, as DraftKings Sportsbook currently lists the Kraken’s odds of winning by two goals or more at +225, which is the best price available right now. A fair price is closer to +205, which is the direction that this one will likely head toward as the day progresses.
The Kraken have covered the puck line 51.7 percent of the time in games where they’re the favorite, and - by my estimation - they should be priced around -125. There is some uncertainty in goal (no goaltender has been confirmed) it is outweighed by the line value.
Update: The Red Wings have traded forward Tyler Bertuzzi to the Boston Bruins.
- Seattle Kraken (Moneyline) -110
- Seattle Kraken (Puck Line, -1.5) +225
61-71, -19.27 units, -13 percent ROI
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