Youmans: Best bets for NFL Week 10

November 13, 2022 12:16 PM
TJ_Watt

At the season’s midpoint, there are few reasons to believe the Steelers have any hope of becoming a playoff contender. T.J. Watt’s comeback provides a little hope, and he’s probably Pittsburgh’s last shot.

In his 16th year as coach, Mike Tomlin is headed for his first losing season. The Steelers would need to stage a miraculous turnaround to dig out of their 2-6 hole and escape a last-place finish in the AFC North for the first time in Tomlin’s tenure. Tomlin said this week it’s time to “put up or shut up.”

The good news is that Watt is showing up. Sidelined since suffering a torn pectoral muscle in Week 1, Watt is returning to his outside linebacker spot Sunday when Pittsburgh plays host to the New Orleans Saints, another team backed into a corner. Watt, the NFL’s reigning Defensive Player of the Year, is the heart and soul of a defense with too many holes.

In seven games without Watt, the Steelers had only eight sacks. The pass rush has been weak, and this record is even worse – Pittsburgh is 1-10 during Watt’s career when he’s out of the lineup.

It’s not all about Watt, however.

The Steelers rank 31st in the league in scoring offense (15 points per game), and rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett has not provided a spark, something that needs to change. Pickett has two touchdown passes and eight interceptions.

If there is a good spot to back Pittsburgh, this is it after a bye week. It’s also hard to argue the Saints (3-6) deserve to be road favorites. New Orleans is fading fast, and coach Dennis Allen and quarterback Andy Dalton appear to be a hopeless duo.

Pick: Steelers +1.5

Four more plays for Week 10:

Buccaneers (-2.5) over Seahawks: It’s easier to find statistical evidence to make a case for Seattle, which has won four in a row to surge to 6-3. The Seahawks are getting it done on defense and getting stunningly good play from quarterback Geno Smith. But are the Seahawks for real? This game in Munich, Germany, will tell a lot. Tampa Bay’s defense is healthier and showing signs of improvement. Tom Brady is also playing better than it seems, ranking No. 2 in passing yards (2,547) while throwing only one interception in a league-high 398 attempts. Brady recaptured some magic when he led the Buccaneers to a last-minute comeback victory over the Rams in Week 9. I’m betting on Brady to find a way again this week.

BILLS (-3) over Vikings: With this line plummeting from an opener of 7.5, it appears obvious that Josh Allen will be out with an elbow injury and Case Keenum will be Buffalo’s starting quarterback. Keenum is capable of winning this game, and he’ll get a lot of help from the Bills’ No. 1-ranked scoring defense (14.8 PPG). Minnesota’s phony 7-1 record is mostly the product of a weak schedule. It’s a buy-low spot on Buffalo.

Broncos (+3) over TITANS: Derrick Henry, the league’s rushing leader with 870 yards, is carrying Tennessee’s one-dimensional offense. Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill is listed as questionable on a bad ankle, and rookie Malik Willis is no passing threat. While the Broncos have been no-dimensional on offense too often, Russell Wilson might be able to make something happen against a Tennessee defense that’s depleted by injuries. Denver ranks No. 2 in scoring defense (16.5 PPG). In what will be a low-scoring and ugly game, take the +3 that’s still available at a couple of books as of Saturday morning or buy the line up from 2.5.

PACKERS (+4.5) over Cowboys: Aaron Rodgers is hitting rock bottom. Green Bay (3-6) has lost five in a row and Rodgers is frustrated following a three-interception fiasco in a defeat at Detroit. Rodgers is in more trouble against a much better Dallas defense. The Packers are a mess, and the Cowboys are riding high off a bye, so this is simply a contrarian play and prayer that Rodgers gets his act together.

Last week: 1-2-2 against the spread

Season: 24-17-4

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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VSiN PrimeTime: Be aware of injuries on the offensive line, skill positions get the most publicity, but if an elite tackle is out it could have a huge impact on the game. View more tips.

A Numbers Game: If you’re just getting into soccer betting, make sure you know exactly what you’re betting. i.e. Double chance, to win, to advance, etc. View more tips.
 
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