Who will win the 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

May 1, 2023 05:30 PM

2023 NFL Draft is in the books and player awards odds have been posted

A lot of players had their dreams come true during the 2023 NFL Draft, but which ones are positioned to have the biggest impacts during their rookie seasons? DraftKings Sportsbook had Offensive Rookie of the Year odds up after the first round was completed, but there were some really interesting players taken in the other rounds. Several are listed on the betting board.

Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds (DraftKings)

Odds as of May 1, 3:30 p.m. PT

  • Bijan Robinson +300
  • Bryce Young +475
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba +700
  • CJ Stroud +700
  • Jahmyr Gibbs +900
  • Anthony Richardson +900
  • Jordan Addison +1700
  • Zay Flowers +1800
  • Hendon Hooker +2000
  • Zach Charbonnet +2000
  • Quentin Johnston +2000
  • Josh Downs +2500
  • Will Levis +2500
  • Jalin Hyatt +200
  • Tyjae Spears +3000
  • Devon Achane +3500
  • Tank Bigsby +3500
  • Rashee Rice +3500
  • Dalton Kinchard +3500
  • Cedric Tillman +3500
  • Michael Mayer +4000
  • Tyler Scott +4500
  • Roschon Johnson +4500
  • Marvin Mims +5000
  • Jayden Reed +5000
  • All others +5500 or higher

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year winners

Dating back to 2000, there have been nine quarterbacks, nine running backs, and five wide receivers to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Quarterbacks: Justin Herbert (2020), Kyler Murray (2019), Dak Prescott (2016), Robert Griffin III (2012), Cam Newton (2011), Sam Bradford (2010), Matt Ryan (2008), Vince Young (2006), Ben Roethlisberger (2004)

Running Backs: Saquon Barkley (2018), Alvin Kamara (2017), Todd Gurley (2015), Eddie Lacy (2013), Adrian Peterson (2007), Cadillac Williams (2005), Clinton Portis (2002), Anthony Thomas (2001), Mike Anderson (2000)

Wide Receivers: Garrett Wilson (2022), Ja’Marr Chase (2021), Odell Beckham Jr. (2014), Percy Harvin (2009), Anquan Boldin (2003)

You don’t have to be a first-round draft pick to win the award, but it certainly helps. The Offensive Rookie of the Year winners by draft round break down like this since 2000:

  • Wilson (1st round, 10th overall)
  • Chase (1st round, 5th overall)
  • Herbert (1st round, 6th overall)
  • Murray (1st round, 1st overall)
  • Barkley (1st round, 2nd overall)
  • Kamara (3rd round, 67th overall)
  • Prescott (4th round, 135th overall)
  • Gurley (1st round, 10th overall)
  • Beckham (1st round, 12th overall)
  • Lacy (2nd round, 61st overall)
  • Griffin (1st round, 2nd overall)
  • Newton (1st round, 1st overall)
  • Bradford (1st round, 1st overall)
  • Harvin (1st round, 22nd overall)
  • Ryan (1st round, 3rd overall)
  • Peterson (1st round, 7th overall)
  • Young (1st round, 3rd overall)
  • Williams (1st round, 5th overall)
  • Roethlisberger (1st round, 11th overall)
  • Boldin (2nd round, 54th overall)
  • Portis (2nd round, 51st overall)
  • Thomas (2nd round, 38th overall)
  • Anderson (6th round, 189th overall)

Of the last 19 winners, 16 have been first-round picks, including each of the last five.

Bijan Robinson Rookie of the Year odds

Robinson is the favorite at +300 to win the hardware this season.

You have to go back to 2018 to find the last running back to win the award, but that’s also the last time a back was taken as high as Robinson. Barkley went second overall in that draft. There were zero RB taken in the first round in 2022. Najee Harris went 24th in 2021 and Josh Jacobs went 24th in 2019, while Clyde Edwards-Helaire went 32nd in 2020 to be the only one drafted in the first round.

Robinson went eighth overall and found a great landing spot with an Atlanta Falcons team that ran the ball a league-high 559 times last season.

Bryce Young Rookie of the Year odds

Young is the second favorite at +475 and he got a pretty good landing spot by the standards of going first overall. Most teams that pick first were absolutely awful the previous season, but Carolina traded up to take Young. First-year head coach Frank Reich is a former QB and an offensive guru, plus Young has some pretty good weapons.

As lacking as the Carolina offense was, the team only surrendered 36 sacks over 17 games with a carousel of QBs at the position, so Young has a really good chance at having immediate success.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Rookie of the Year odds

Smith-Njigba is the co-third favorite with his Ohio State teammate Stroud to be the Rookie of the Year at +700. The worry for Smith-Njigba is how many touches he’ll get on a team with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and a 1,000-yard rusher in Kenneth Walker III. That being said, Chase went to a team with Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and a pass-catching back in Joe Mixon and still won in 2021.

CJ Stroud Rookie of the Year odds

Stroud has an uphill climb with a Texans team pretty devoid of talent and a first-time offensive coordinator in Bobby Slowik. He isn’t the first quarterback to go to a team in need of major upgrades and win the award, but guys like Herbert, Murray, and Prescott had much stronger supporting casts. He’s +700 along with JSN.

Jahmyr Gibbs Rookie of the Year odds

Gibbs was thought to be a pretty big reach at No. 12, but the Lions, who certainly had other needs, felt strong enough about potential usage to take him that high. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is a rising star in the business and Gibbs was probably the best receiving back in the draft, so he could be very interesting at +900.

Anthony Richardson Rookie of the Year odds

Richardson is also +900 and a guy that may not start right away for the Colts based on his college tape and resume. The Colts also surrendered 60 sacks last season, so they have some offensive line work to do. Richardson has all the measurables, though, and is the truest dual-threat QB out of the quarterbacks taken high.

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