VSiN Analytics Report for Week 5
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 5. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Matchups
Strategies using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the Betting Splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2023 NFL Betting Guide Part 2, Steve Makinen outlined 12 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022 season. The stats of these systems are as of the start of the season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
DK Betting Splits system #1: When more than 65% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 35-53 ATS (39.8%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, MIAMI, DETROIT, PHILADELPHIA, NY JETS, SAN FRANCISCO, LAS VEGAS
DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 66-92 ATS (41.8%). The NFL is the most public of all bet-able sports. If 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings likes a particular side, fade ‘em.
It's safe to assume that you don’t want to be part of the supermajority of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, BUFFALO, MIAMI, BALTIMORE, DETROIT, HOUSTON, PHILADELPHIA, NY JETS, KANSAS CITY, SAN FRANCISCO, GREEN BAY
DraftKings bettors were at their absolute worst last season when analyzing divisional games:
DK Betting Splits system #3: In NFL divisional games of 2022, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group was just 36-64 ATS (36%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, TENNESSEE
DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game last year, this majority group was just 37-60 ATS (38.1%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, TENNESSEE
DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority handle and the number of bets were on road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups were just 36-52 ATS (40.9%) & 35-53 ATS (39.8%) respectively. Both are losing propositions, and most often, these majorities match up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, PHILADELPHIA
DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle and number of bets were on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups actually produced winning records, 26-25 ATS (51%) and 34-32 ATS (51.5%) respectively. This matches somewhat with the logic I used to explain some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain”, they win. In this case, mildly.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): NY JETS
DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games, these majority groups were just 28-44 ATS (38.9%) and 29-44 ATS (39.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, SAN FRANCISCO
DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 26-22 ATS (54.2%). This is another situation where going against the grain paid off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW ENGLAND, PITTSBURGH, MINNESOTA, LAS VEGAS
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total last year was 44.2. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors struggled, going 28-53 ATS (34.6%). Not surprisingly, they sided with the favored team in 59 of the games.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, MIAMI, PHILADELPHIA, KANSAS CITY
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle was on the Under in an NFL game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 26-18 ATS (59.1%). This number for a “supermajority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets produced a 23-17 record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYG-MIA, NO-NE, BAL-PIT, TEN-IND
DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #11, the magic mark for the supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably last season with a record of 38-63 (37.6%). This has been a long-standing belief to me, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same supermajority percentage produced a slightly improved 41-52 record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): JAX-BUF, NYG-MIA, HOU-ATL, PHI-LAR, KC-MIN, DAL-SF
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a supermajority (>=64%) of handle was on the Over, and DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group lost big, going just 9-29 (23.7%). Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of those behind the counter being smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYG-MIA, HOU-ATL
NFL Rookie/Re-Trend Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2023 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Jonathan Gannon (Arizona), DeMeco Ryans (Houston), Shane Steichen (Indianapolis) as well as re-tread coaches Sean Payton (Denver) and Frank Reich (Carolina).
Rookie Coach Systems
In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Divisional games 122-135-7 ATS (47.5%). These are not groundbreaking betting numbers by any means, but it could serve as a foundational concept that the more familiar the opponent, the less successful the rookie coach.
System Matches: FADE INDIANAPOLIS (+1 vs. Tennessee)
Rookie head coaches have shown a tendency to start and finish their first season most successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in games #5-#12, they’ve gone 157-178-9 ATS (46.9%). Think of these trends when you see the schedules of the six rookie head coaches in 2023 released shortly.
System Matches: FADE INDIANAPOLIS (+1 vs. Tennessee), FADE HOUSTON (+2 at Atlanta), FADE ARIZONA (+3 vs. Cincinnati)
Among the key challenges new head coaches face is keeping teams grounded after wins as they’ve gone 137-152-10 ATS (47.4%) in that situation.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (+2 at Atlanta)
Re-tread Coach Systems
Like the rookie head coaches, re-tread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. In fact, their record in home games – 79-118 ATS (40.1%).
System Match: FADE DENVER (-2 vs NY Jets)
Re-tread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites since 2013. They’ve gone 87-65 SU but just 49-91-12 ATS, for 35%!
System Match: FADE DENVER (-2 vs NY Jets)
Digging deeper into the two trends described just above, as home favorites, re-tread coaches have gone just 55-40 SU and 29-61-5 ATS (32.2%) in their first seasons over the last decade.
System Match: FADE DENVER (-2 vs NY Jets)
Re-tread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in Weeks 1-10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 89-139-7 ATS (39%)
System Matches: FADE DENVER (-2 vs. NY Jets), FADE CAROLINA (+9.5 at Denver)
There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2013, when coming off a loss, the record has been just 94-130-8 ATS (42%).
System Match: FADE CAROLINA (+9.5 at Denver)
NFL rookie quarterback systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters out of the gate in 2023 include Bryce Young (Carolina), CJ Stroud (Houston), and Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis), although others could join them down the road.
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
- Earlier I indicated winning percentages of 40.9% straight up and 50.4% ATS for rookie quarterbacks since 2004. The results of late are far worse. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are just 147-275-2 SU (34.8%) and 193-228-3 ATS (45.8%).
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA (+9.5 at Detroit), FADE HOUSTON (+2 at Atlanta), FADE INDIANAPOLIS (+1 vs. Tennessee)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
- The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 101-109-1 ATS (48.1%) in home games but just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-18, they are just 27-80 SU and 42-63-2 ATS (40%).
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA (+9.5 at Detroit), FADE HOUSTON (+2 at Atlanta)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
- Since 2004, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 7 points or more have won just 26 games, going 26-158 SU and 75-100-9 ATS (42.9%).
System Match: FADE CAROLINA (+9.5 at Detroit)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been tough for rookie starting quarterbacks
- The breakdown of success levels against Division, Conference, and nonconference opponents has been definitive for rookie starting quarterbacks. Since the start of the 2013 season, versus non-divisional conference and non-conference opponents, they are about 49% ATS. However, against divisional foes, they are just 64-87-1 ATS (42.4%). As divisional dogs of 5 points or more, rookie QBs are just 7-61 SU and 25-42-1 ATS (37.3%) in that span.
System Match: FADE INDIANAPOLIS (+1 vs Tennessee)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
- In their last 102 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 32-74-1 SU and 44-62-1 ATS (41.5%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA (+9.5 at Detroit), FADE INDIANAPOLIS (+1 vs. Tennessee)
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
- Alternatively, to #6 above, NFL teams that win by 35 points or more in a home or neutral field game have not been good bets in the follow-up contest, going 20-16 SU but 12-23-1 ATS (34.3%) when favored in their last 36 opportunities.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (+3.5 at San Francisco)
DON’T DISMISS TEAMS OFF DREADFUL OFFENSIVE OUTINGS
- NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 17-29 SU but 32-14 ATS (69.6%) over the last decade-plus.
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND ATS (**ONLY** if they become underdogs vs New Orleans)
TNF, SNF, & MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, including some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 27-23 SU and 31-17-2 ATS (64.6%) in the last 50.
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS
- There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 18-16 SU but 9-23-2 ATS (28.1%). However, home-field advantage has picked up slightly in the second half of the season in recent years, with week 9-17 home teams going 14-17 SU and 15-18 ATS (75%) in that same time span. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 30-23 SU and 31-20-2 ATS (60.8%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON ATS
- A wild trend has developed over the last 3+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 14-12 SU and 19-6-2 ATS (76%) record.
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS
- Unfortunately, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last four seasons, going 19-26 SU and 16-28-1 ATS (36.4%).
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have gone the complete opposite direction, showing a record of 9-12 SU and 5-16 ATS (23.8%) in their last 21 after going 40-18-2 ATS prior.
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO
- Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 9-14 SU and 9-13-1 ATS (40.9%) in their last 23, but those coming off a win are on a current 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS (62.5%) surge.
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO
UNDER the Total SNF Team Trends
Dallas 14-5 Under since 2016
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DAL-SF
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 9-8 SU and 11-5-1 ATS (68.8%) dating back to September 2021. The last 15 of these games have seen Under the total go 13-1-1 (92.9%) as well, games producing just 34.4 PPG.
System Match: PLAY LAS VEGAS, also PLAY UNDER (o/u at 44.5)
- In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 20-19 SU but 9-28-2 ATS (23.7%) in the last 39.
System Match: FADE LAS VEGAS ATS
- In concert with the theme of big underdogs faring well on MNF, teams scoring 17.5 PPG or less at the time have gone 7-10 SU and 12-5 ATS (70.6%) in their last 17 tries against teams scoring higher than that.
System Match: PLAY LAS VEGAS ATS
- Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 27-19 SU but just 16-28-2 ATS (36.4%) in the last 46 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match: FADE GREEN BAY ATS
Good MNF Team Trends
Green Bay is 9-1 SU in the last 10, with four straight ATS wins
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY ATS
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Dallas 9-2 ATS in the last 11
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS
Green Bay 13-5 SU and 14-4 ATS in the last 18
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY ATS
Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF and MNF) Team Trends
Chicago 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in the last 10
System Match: FADE CHICAGO ATS
Washington 10-20 & 9-20-1 ATS in primetime since 2013
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON ATS
Pre-Bye-Week Systems and Trends
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason.
Pre-bye week system #1:
Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent. (Record: 50-20-1 ATS since 2013, 71.4%, +28.0 Units, 40% R.O.I., Grade 73)
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+4 vs Baltimore)
Pre-bye week system #3
Play home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 31-17-2 ATS since 2015, 64.5%, +12.3 Units, 24.6% R.O.I., Grade 68)
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+4 vs Baltimore)
Pre-bye week system #5
Play Over the total in Monday Night Games featuring a team heading into their bye week. (Record: 30-14-1 since ‘09, 68.2%, +14.62 Units, 33.2% R.O.I., Grade 65)
System Match: PLAY OVER in GB-LVR (o/u at 44.5)
Pre-bye week system #6
Play on any road team heading into their bye week on Monday Night. (Record: 23-17 SU and 26-12 ATS since 1996, 68.4%, +13.7 Units, 34.3% R.O.I., Grade 65)
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (-2.5 at Las Vegas)
GREEN BAY Pre-Bye Week Game: MON 10/9 at Las Vegas
- The Packers are 4-0 SU and ATS in pre-bye week games under head coach Matt LaFleur
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY
- Green Bay is on a 5-6 SU and 2-9 ATS slide in pre-bye week road games dating back to 1992 but did win at Chicago last year
System Match: FADE GREEN BAY
PITTSBURGH Pre-Bye Week Game: 10/8 BALTIMORE
- Pittsburgh is just 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 pre-bye week home games
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH
- The Steelers have lost their last 3 pre-bye week games versus the Ravens franchise SU and ATS, the last two at home where they scored 14 total points
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH
This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
This week's Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANAPOLIS +1 (+1.8), 2. LA RAMS +4 (+1.3), 3. NY JETS +2 (+0.4)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUFFALO -5.5 (+3.5), 2. GREEN BAY -1 (+2.1), 3. KANSAS CITY -4.5 (+1.0), 4(tie). DETROIT -9.5 (+0.9) and MIAMI -11 (+0.9) and BALTIMORE -4 (+0.9)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA RAMS +4 (+6.6), 2. NY JETS +2 (+5.9), 3. ARIZONA +3 (+4.8), 4. INDIANAPOLIS +1 (+2.3), 5. DALLAS +3.5 (+1.9)
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BALTIMORE -4 (+4.5), 2. MIAMI -11 (+4.1), 3. DETROIT -9.5 (+1.4)
This week’s Top 4 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYJ-DEN OVER 43 (+3.0), 2. NO-NE OVER 40 (+1.9), 3. NYG-MIA OVER 48.5 (+1.8), 4. CIN-ARI OVER 44.5 (+0.1)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. KC-MIN UNDER 53 (-5.9), 2. JAX-BUF UNDER 48.5 (-4.2), 3. TEN-IND UNDER 42.5 (-2.2), 4. CHI-WAS UNDER 44.5 (-2.1), 5. DAL-SF UNDER 45 (-2.0)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NY GIANTS +11 (+4.5), 2. CHICAGO +6 (+2.7), 3. INDIANAPOLIS +1 (+2.5), 4. PITTSBURGH +4 (+2.1), 5(tie). CAROLINA +9.5 (+1.3) and JACKSONVILLE +5.5 (+1.3)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CINCINNATI -3 (+7.8), 2. ATLANTA -2 (+4.6), 3. DENVER -2 (+2.1), 4. NEW ENGLAND -1 (+1.8), 5. SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 (+0.8)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-SF OVER 45 (+2.0), 2. CAR-DET OVER 44.5 (+1.2), 3. NYJ-DEN OVER 43 (+0.7), 4(tie). HOU-ATL OVER 41 (+0.6) and BAL-PIT OVER 38.5 (+0.6)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. KC-MIN UNDER 53 (-5.1), 2. GB-LVR UNDER 45 (-3.7), 3. TEN-IND UNDER 42.5 (-3.0), 4. PHI-LAR UNDER 50.5 (-1.6), 5. NO-NE UNDER 40 (-1.5)
Top NFL Starting Quarterback Betting Trends
Here are 19 top betting trends detailing various quarterback performance records in situations as a starter:
* Jared Goff (DET) is 15-19 SU but 24-10 ATS (70.6%) with current head coach Dan Campbell. The average line was +4.1, Team average PF: 23.1
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS (-9.5 vs Carolina)
* Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) is 15-4 SU and 14-5 ATS (73.7%) in home games. The average line was -2.1, Team average PF: 26.2
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-11 vs. NY Giants)
Top NFL Team Situational Trends
These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
* ARIZONA is 18-24 ATS (42.9%) at home since 2018
* ARIZONA is 16-9 ATS (64%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (+3 vs Cincinnati)
* ATLANTA is 15-26 ATS (36.6%) at home since 2018
* ATLANTA is 29-47 ATS (38.2%) as a favorite since 2014
* ATLANTA is 13-27 ATS (32.5%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-2 vs Houston)
* BALTIMORE is 38-51 ATS (42.7%) as a favorite since 2015
* BALTIMORE is 34-17 ATS (66.7%) in road/neutral games since 2017
System Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of BALTIMORE (-4 at Pittsburgh)
* BUFFALO is 33-22 ATS (60%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-5.5 vs Jacksonville)
* CAROLINA is 15-28 ATS (34.9%) in non-divisional conference games since 2018
System Match: FADE CAROLINA (+9.5 at Detroit)
* CHICAGO is 13-28-1 ATS (31.7%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* CHICAGO is 24-39 ATS (38.1%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
* CHICAGO is 20-39 ATS (33.9%) in road/neutral games since 2016
* CHICAGO is 16-33-1 ATS (32.7%) as an underdog since 2019
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (+6 at Washington)
* CINCINNATI is 46-26 ATS (63.9%) in road/neutral games since 2015
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-3 at Arizona)
* DALLAS is 25-15 ATS (62.5%) in non-divisional conference games since 2019
* DALLAS is 14-7 ATS (66.7%) in road/neutral games since 2021
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (+3.5 at San Francisco)
* DENVER is 14-30-1 ATS (31.8%) as a favorite since 2017
* DENVER is 83-52 UNDER the total (61.5%) since 2015
System Match: FADE DENVER (-2 vs. NY Jets), PLAY UNDER in NYJ-DEN (o/u at 43)
* DETROIT is 14-4 ATS (77.8%) at home since 2021
* DETROIT is 26-11 ATS (70.3%) overall since 2021
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-9.5 vs Carolina)
* GREEN BAY is 18-9 ATS (66.7%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (-1 at Las Vegas)
* JACKSONVILLE is 24-15 UNDER the total (61.5%) since 2021
System Match: PLAY UNDER in JAX-BUF (o/u at 48.5)
* KANSAS CITY is 9-3 ATS (75%) vs. non-conference foes since 2021
* KANSAS CITY is 48-31 ATS (60.8%) in road/neutral games since 2014
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-4.5 at Minnesota)
* LA RAMS are 35-24 UNDER the total (59.3%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER in PHI-LAR (o/u at 50.5)
* LAS VEGAS is 25-41-1 ATS (37.9%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
System Match: FADE LAS VEGAS (+1 vs Green Bay)
* MIAMI is 51-24 ATS (68%) at home since 2014
* MIAMI is 23-14 ATS (62%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-11 vs. NY Giants)
* MINNESOTA is 13-23 ATS (36%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* MINNESOTA is 10-18 ATS (35.7%) at home since 2020
* MINNESOTA is 28-15 ATS (65.1%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
* MINNESOTA is 44-28 OVER the total (61.1%) since 2019
System Match: 2 FADEs, 1 PLAY of MINNESOTA (+4.5 vs Kansas City), PLAY OVER in KC-MIN (o/u at 53)
* NEW ORLEANS is 21-14 ATS (60%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* NEW ORLEANS is 30-14-1 ATS (68.2%) in road/neutral games since 2018
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+1 at New England)
* NY GIANTS are 36-17 UNDER the total (67.9%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NYG-MIA (o/u at 49.5)
* NY JETS are 16-35 ATS (31.4%) in road/neutral games since 2017
System Match: FADE NY JETS (+2 at Denver)
* PHILADELPHIA is 14-23 ATS (37.8%) in road/neutral games since 2019
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-4 at LA Rams)
* PITTSBURGH is 84-56 UNDER the total (60%) since 2015
* PITTSBURGH is 26-13 ATS (66.7%) as an underdog since 2018
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+4 vs. Baltimore), PLAY UNDER in BAL-PIT (o/u at 38.5)
* SAN FRANCISCO is 31-19 ATS (62%) when coming off SU win since 2019
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5 vs Dallas)
* TENNESSEE is 22-14 ATS (61%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
System Match: PLAY TENNESSEE (-1 at Indianapolis)
* WASHINGTON is 13-24 ATS (35.1%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 33-20 UNDER the total (62.3%) since 2020
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-6 vs. Chicago), PLAY UNDER in CHI-WAS (o/u at 44.5)
Top NFL Head-to-Head Series Trends
These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:
CHICAGO at WASHINGTON
Washington is on 11-3 ATS run vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS
BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH
Underdogs are 14-1-2 ATS in the last 17 of BAL-PIT rivalry
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH ATS
CAROLINA at DETROIT
Underdogs are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the DET-CAR series
System Match: PLAY CAROLINA ATS
CINCINNATI at ARIZONA
Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in the last five of the CIN-ARI series
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA ATS
DALLAS at SAN FRANCISCO
Favorites are 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight of the DAL-SF rivalry
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO ATS
HOUSTON at ATLANTA
Home teams have swept all five prior HOU-ATL matchups ATS
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS
JACKSONVILLE vs. BUFFALO
Underdogs have won the last 5 ATS in the JAC-BUF series
System Match: PLAY JACKSONVILLE ATS
KANSAS CITY at MINNESOTA
Home teams are on a 5-0-1 ATS run in the KC-MIN series
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS
NEW ORLEANS at NEW ENGLAND
NEW ORLEANS is 6-3 ATS vs. New England since 1992
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS
NY GIANTS at MIAMI
Favorites have won the last three ATS in the NYG-MIA series
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS
NY JETS at DENVER
Denver is on a 12-5-1 ATS surge vs. NY Jets
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS
PHILADELPHIA at LA RAMS
Philadelphia has won the last four ATS at LA Rams
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS
TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS
Tennessee has won the last five ATS at Indianapolis
System Match: PLAY TENNESSEE ATS
GREEN BAY at LAS VEGAS
The last six games of the GB-LVR series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER in GB-LVR