VSiN Analytics Report for Week 4
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 4. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Matchups
Strategies using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the Betting Splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2023 NFL Betting Guide Part 2, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the ’22 season. The stats of these systems are as of the start of the season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
DK Betting Splits system #1: When more than 65% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 35-53 ATS (39.8%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, JACKSONVILLE, MIAMI, CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA, DENVER, MINNESOTA, KANSAS CITY
DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 66-92 ATS (41.8%). The NFL is the most public of all bet-able sports. If 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings likes a particular side, fade 'em.
It's safe to assume that you don’t want to be part of the supermajority of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, JACKSONVILLE, MIAMI, PITTSBURGH, LA RAMS, CINCINNATI, PHILADELPHIA, DENVER, MINNESOTA, TAMPA BAY, LA CHARGERS, KANSAS CITY, SEATTLE
DraftKings bettors were at their absolute worst last season when analyzing divisional games:
DK Betting Splits system #3: In NFL divisional games of 2022, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group was just 36-64 ATS (36%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, MIAMI, CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA, NEW ORLEANS, LA CHARGERS, ARIZONA
DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game last year, this majority group was just 37-60 ATS (38.1%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, MIAMI, CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA, TAMPA BAY, LA CHARGERS, SAN FRANCISCO
DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority handle and number of bets were on road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups were just 36-52 ATS (40.9%) and 35-53 ATS (39.8%) respectively. Both are losing propositions, and most often, these majorities match up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, CINCINNATI, DENVER, MINNESOTA, KANSAS CITY
DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle and number of bets were on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups actually produced winning records, 26-25 ATS (51%) & 34-32 ATS (51.5%) respectively. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain”, they win. In this case, mildly.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MIAMI, LA RAMS, SEATTLE
DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games, these majority groups were just 28-44 ATS (38.9%) & 29-44 ATS (39.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, KANSAS CITY, SEATTLE
DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 26-22 ATS (54.2%). This is another situation where going against the grain paid off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, LA RAMS, ARIZONA
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total last year was 44.2. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, the majority number of bettors struggled, going 28-53 ATS (34.6%). Not surprisingly, they sided with the favored team in 59 of the games.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, LA RAMS, LA CHARGERS, SEATTLE
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle was on the Under in an NFL game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 26-18 ATS (59.1%). This number for a “supermajority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets produced a 23-17 record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-GB, ATL-JAX, BAL-CLE, CIN-TEN, WAS-PHI, NE-DAL, KC-NYJ
DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #11, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably last season with a record of 38-63 (37.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 41-52 record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-BUF, PIT-HOU, MIN-CAR, SEA-NYG
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle was on the Over, and DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group lost big, going just 9-29 (23.7%). Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): SEA-NYG
NFL Rookie/Re-Trend Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2023 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Jonathan Gannon (Arizona), DeMeco Ryans (Houston), Shane Steichen (Indianapolis) as well as re-tread coaches Sean Payton (Denver) and Frank Reich (Carolina).
Rookie Coach Systems
In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Divisional games 122-134-7 ATS (47.7%), These are not groundbreaking betting numbers by any means, but it could serve as a foundational concept that the more familiar the opponent, the less successful the rookie coach.
System Match: FADE ARIZONA ATS
Among the key challenges new head coaches face is keeping teams grounded after wins as they’ve gone 136-150-10 ATS (47.6%) in that situation.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (+3 vs. Pittsburgh), FADE ARIZONA (+14 at San Francisco), FADE INDIANAPOLIS (-1 vs. LA Rams)
Re-tread Coach Systems
Like the rookie head coaches, re-tread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. In fact, their record in Home games – 79-117 ATS (40.3%).
System Match: FADE CAROLINA (+3.5 vs Minnesota)
Re-tread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites since 2013. They’ve gone 86-65 SU but just 49-91-11 ATS, for 35%!
System Match: FADE DENVER ATS (-3.5 at Chicago)
Re-tread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in Weeks 1-10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 89-138-6 ATS (39.2%)
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA, FADE DENVER
There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2013, when coming off a loss, the record has been just 94-129-7 ATS (42.2%).
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA, FADE DENVER
NFL rookie quarterback systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters out of the gate in 2023 include Bryce Young (Carolina), CJ Stroud (Houston), and Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis), although others could join them down the road.
**Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson are both questionable as of Wednesday**
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
- Earlier I indicated winning percentages of 40.9% straight up and 50.4% ATS for rookie quarterbacks since 2004. The results of late are far worse. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are just 146-273-2 SU (34.8%) and 192-226-3 ATS (45.9%).
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+3 vs Pittsburgh)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QB’s
- In their last 102 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 32-73-1 SU and 44-61-1 ATS (41.9%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Match: FADE CAROLINA (if BRYCE YOUNG plays)
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
- NFL teams that have gained an explosive 8.75 yards per play or more in any given game have responded the next week by going just 21-20-1 SU and 14-26-2 ATS (35%) in their L43 tries.
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+3 at Buffalo)
BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
- NFL teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have been nearly automatic when playing as road favorites in the next contest, winning their last 14 tries outright while going 12-1-1 ATS (92.3%)!
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-3.5 at Chicago)
DON’T DISMISS TEAMS OFF DREADFUL OFFENSIVE OUTINGS
- NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 16-29 SU but 31-14 ATS (68.9%) over the last decade-plus.
System Match: PLAY TENNESSEE (+2 vs Cincinnati)
TNF, SNF and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew which also included some Wednesday & Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 26-23 SU and 30-17-2 ATS (63.8%) in the last 49.
System Match: PLAY DETROIT
- There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 18-15 SU but 9-22-2 ATS (29%). However, home-field advantage has picked up slightly in the second half of the season in recent years, with week 9-17 home teams going 14-17 SU and 15-18 ATS (75%) in that same time span. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 30-23 SU and 31-20-2 ATS (60.8%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match: FADE GREEN BAY ATS
- Home underdogs on TNF have really struggled of late, going 4-15 SU and 6-13 ATS (25%) in their last 19, scoring just 14.6 PPG. In terms of totals, 15 of the last 17 (88.2%) TNF games featuring a home dog went Under.
System Match: FADE GREEN BAY, PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 46)
- A long-running trend of Thursday night home-field advantage being crucial in divisional games has turned lately, with these hosts going 12-12 SU but 7-17 ATS (29.2%) since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match: FADE GREEN BAY ATS
Good TNF Team Trends
Green Bay is 6-3 SU and 6 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine games
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (+1.5 vs Detroit)
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 15-17 SU and 19-11-2 ATS (63.3%) dating back to 2017.
System Match: PLAY NY JETS ATS
- SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 7-18 SU and ATS (28%) in their last 25 tries against teams off a win.
System Match: FADE NY JETS
- Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 9-13 SU and 8-13-1 ATS (38.1%) in their last 22, but those coming off a win are on a current 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS (82.5%) surge.
System Match: FADE NY JETS
- More on unusual stat angles, the best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 8-20 SU and 10-18 ATS (35.7%) against worse defenses on SNF since 2019.
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY ATS
Over the total SNF Team Trends
Kansas City 13-6 OVER since ’16, combined avg. 54.8 PPG
System Match: PLAY OVER in KC-NYJ (o/u at 42.5)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on a 12-12 SU & 16-8 ATS (66.7%) surge since ’19.
System Match: PLAY NY GIANTS ATS
- In concert with the theme of big underdogs faring well on MNF, teams scoring 17.5 PPG or less at the time have gone 7-9 SU and 12-4 ATS (75%) in their last 16 tries against teams scoring higher than that.
System Match: PLAY NY GIANTS ATS
- Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 28-19 SU but just 15-28-2 ATS (34.9%) in the last 46 MNF games not matching their teams with identical records.
System Match: PLAY NY GIANTS ATS
Bad MNF Team Trends
NY Giants seven straight losses (3-4 ATS)
System Match: FADE NY GIANTS (+1 vs. Seattle)
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Green Bay 13-4 SU and 14-3 ATS in the last 17 games
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY
Kansas City 13-5 SU and ATS in the last 18 road primetime games
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY
Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF & MNF) Team Trends
NY Giants are 3-19 SU since the last back-to-back wins (9-13 ATS)
System Match: FADE NY GIANTS
NY Jets is 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in the last nine games
System Match: FADE NY JETS
OVER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Kansas City 16-5 OVER surge in road games
System Match: PLAY OVER in KC-NYJ
UNDER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF & MNF) Team Trends
Seattle 7-1 UNDER in the last eight
System Match: PLAY UNDER in SEA-NYG
Pre Bye-Week Systems and Trends
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason
Pre-bye week system #1:
Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent. (Record: 49-19 ATS since ‘13, 72.1%, +28.1 Units, 41.3% R.O.I., Grade 73)
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND, PLAY LA CHARGERS, PLAY TAMPA BAY
Pre-bye week system #5
Play OVER the total in Monday Night Games featuring a team heading into their bye week. (Record: 30-13-1 since ‘09, 69.8%, +15.7 Units, 35.7% R.O.I., Grade 65)
System Matches: PLAY OVER in Seattle-NY Giants
Pre-bye week system #6
Play on any ROAD team heading into their BYE week on Monday Night. (Record: 22-17 SU and 25-12 ATS since 1996, 67.6%, +12.7 Units, 34.3% R.O.I., Grade 65)
System Matches: PLAY SEATTLE
CLEVELAND Pre-Bye Week Game: 10/1 BALTIMORE
- Cleveland is on a 3-9 SU and ATS slide in pre-bye week games, including 3-6 SU and ATS at home
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
- The Browns are 6-1-1 Under the total in their last eight pre-bye week games vs. divisional rivals
System Match: PLAY UNDER in BAL-CLE
LA CHARGERS Pre-Bye Week Game: 10/1 LAS VEGAS
- The Chargers are just 1-8 SU and ATS in their last nine pre-bye week games
System Match: FADE LA CHARGERS
- While bad overall in pre-bye week games lately, the Chargers are 9-3 ATS in that situation in their last 12 versus divisional foes
System Match: PLAY LA CHARGERS ATS
SEATTLE Pre-Bye Week Game: MON 10/2 at NY Giants
- Seattle lost the league’s longest pre-bye week winning streak a year ago, as it ended at 11 games in a loss to Tampa Bay. The Seahawks are now 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS in pre-bye week games since 2011
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE
- The Seahawks have won their last five pre-bye week true road games while going 4-1 ATS
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE
TAMPA BAY Pre-Bye Week Game: 10/1 at New Orleans
- Tampa Bay is just 4-10 SU and 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 pre-bye week games overall but did beat Seattle a year ago overseas
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY
- The Buccaneers are on a 6-1 OVER the total surge in pre-bye week divisional contests
System Match: PLAY OVER in TB-NO
This week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
This week;'s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +3 (+2.6), 2. CHICAGO +3 (+1.9), 3. GREEN BAY +1.5 (+1.7), 4(tie). CAROLINA +3.5 (+1.5) and NY GIANTS +1 (+1.5)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -8.5 (+1.5), 2. JACKSONVILLE -3 (+0.6), 3(tie). CLEVELAND -2.5 (+0.5) and NEW ORLEANS -3 (+0.5), 5. LA CHARGERS -5 (+0.4)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +3 (+6.2), 2. HOUSTON +3 (+5.9), 3. TENNESSEE +2.5 (+5.8), 4. WASHINGTON +8.5 (+3.5), 5. MIAMI +3 (+3.3)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. KANSAS CITY +9.5 (+4.3), 2. LA CHARGERS -5 (+1.7), 3. SAN FRANCISCO -14 (+1.1), 4. CLEVELAND -2.5 (+0.8), 5. DETROIT -1.5 (+0.5)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA-CAROLINA OVER 45 (+2.2), 2(tie). PITTSBURGH-HOUSTON OVER 42 (+1.9) and WASHINGTON-PHILADELPHIA OVER 43.5 (+1.9), 4. DENVER-CHICAGO OVER 46 (+1.7), 5. BALTIMORE-CLEVELAND OVER 40.5 (+0.5)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SEATTLE-NY GIANTS UNDER 47 (-3.3), 2. ATLANTA-JACKSONVILLE UNDER 43 (-1.3), 3. DETROIT-GREEN BAY UNDER 46 (-0.5), 4. CINCINNATI-TENNESSEE UNDER 41.5 (-0.3), 5. LAS VEGAS-LA CHARGERS UNDER 48 (-0.2)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NY JETS +9.5 (+5.0), 2. CHICAGO +3 (+3.7), 3. BALTIMORE +2.5 (+2.7), 4. LA RAMS +1 (+2.2), 5. NY GIANTS +1 (+1.6)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -3 (+2.3), 2. DETROIT -1.5 (+2.2), 3. JACKSONVILLE -3 (+2.1), 4. SAN FRANCISCO -14 (+1.5), 5. PHILADELPHIA -8.5 (+0.8)
This week’s Top 4 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER-CHICAGO OVER 46 (+3.0), 2. BALTIMORE-CLEVELAND OVER 40.5 (+1.7), 3. PITTSBURGH-HOUSTON OVER 42 (+1.2), 4. NEW ENGLAND-DALLAS OVER 43 (+0.5)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TAMPA BAY-NEW ORLEANS UNDER 40.5 (-3.0), 2. ARIZONA-SAN FRANCISCO UNDER 44.5 (-1.5), 3. MIAMI-BUFFALO UNDER 53.5 (-1.4), 4. LAS VEGAS-LA CHARGERS UNDER 48 (-1.3), 5. SEATTLE-NY GIANTS UNDER 47 (-1.2)
Top NFL Starting Quarterback Betting Trends
Here are 19 top betting trends detailing various quarterback performance records in situations as a starter:
* Jared Goff (DET) is 14-19 SU but 23-10 ATS (69.7%) with current head coach Dan Campbell. The average line was +4.3, Team average PF: 22.8
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS (-1.5 at Green Bay)
* Jalen Hurts (PHI) is 13-1 SU and 10-2-2 ATS (83.3%) as a home favorite. The average line was -7.7, Team average PF: 31.1
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-8.5 vs Washington)
* Lamar Jackson (BAL) is 9-5 SU and 12-2 ATS (85.7%) as an underdog. The average line was +3.1, Team average PF: 25
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (+2.5 at Cleveland)
* Joe Burrow (CIN) is 15-5 SU and ATS (75%) vs. non-divisional conference foes. The average line was -0.1, Team average PF: 25.1
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-2.5 at Tennessee)
* Ryan Tannehill (TEN) is 17-10 SU and 17-7-3 ATS (70.8%) as a home underdog. The average line was +3.7, Team average PF: 24.8
System Match: PLAY TENNESSEE (+2.5 vs Cincinnati)
* Justin Fields (CHI) is 4-19 SU and 6-17 ATS (26.1%) in Sunday games. The average line was +4.9, Team average PF: 18.7
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (+3.5 vs Denver)
* Matthew Stafford (LAR) is 2-15 SU and 5-11-1 ATS (31.2%) as an underdog of more than 7 points. The average line was +10.5, Team average PF: 17.4
System Match: FADE LA RAMS (+1 at Indianapolis)
* Patrick Mahomes (KC) is 24-1 SU but 10-14-1 ATS (41.7%) in his last 25 games as a favorite of more than 7 points. The average line was -11, Team average PF: 29.2
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY ATS (-9.5 at NY Jets)
* Mac Jones (NE) is 0-10 SU and ATS (0%) as an underdog of 7 points or less. The average line was +2.9, Team average PF: 18.2
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+6.5 at Dallas)
* Trevor Lawrence (JAC) is 1-9 SU and ATS (10%) in non-conference games. The average line was +4.5, Team average PF: 17.1
System Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (-3 vs. Atlanta)
Top NFL Team Situational Trends
These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
* ARIZONA is 7-12 ATS (37%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
* ARIZONA is 22-14 ATS (61%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* ARIZONA is 16-8 ATS (66.7%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of ARIZONA ATS (+14 at San Francisco)
* ATLANTA is 13-26 ATS (33%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+3 vs Jacksonville)
* BALTIMORE is 33-17 ATS (66%) in road/neutral games since 2017
* BALTIMORE is 23-7 ATS (76.7%) as an underdog since 2017
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (+2.5 at Cleveland)
* CAROLINA is 11-21-1 ATS (34%) at home since 2019
* CAROLINA is 15-27 ATS (35.7%) in non-divisional conference games since 2018
System Match: FADE CAROLINA (+3.5 vs Minnesota)
* CHICAGO is 13-28 ATS (31.7%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* CHICAGO is 16-33 ATS (32.7%) as an underdog since 2019
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (+3.5 vs Denver)
* CINCINNATI is 41-22 ATS (65%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
* CINCINNATI is 46-25 ATS (65%) in road/neutral games since 2015
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-2.5 at Tennessee)
* CLEVELAND is 25-38 ATS (39.7%) at home since 2015
* CLEVELAND is 17-33 ATS (34%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
* CLEVELAND is 14-26 ATS (35%) as a favorite since 2017
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-2.5 vs Baltimore)
* DALLAS is 9-1 ATS (90%) when coming off SU loss since 2021
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-6.5 vs New England)
* DENVER is 14-30 ATS (31.8%) as a favorite since 2017
* DENVER is 83-51 Under the total (61.9%) since 2015
System Match: FADE DENVER ATS (-3.5 at Chicago), PLAY UNDER in Den-Chi (o/u at 45.5)
* DETROIT is 16-8 ATS (67%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
* DETROIT is 25-11 ATS (69.4%) overall since 2021
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-1.5 at Green Bay)
* GREEN BAY is 24-13 ATS (64.9%) at home since 2019
* GREEN BAY is 17-8 ATS (68%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
* GREEN BAY is 15-5 ATS (75%) as an underdog since 2019
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (+1.5 vs Detroit)
* INDIANAPOLIS is 22-11 ATS (67%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
System Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS (-1 vs. LA Rams)
* JACKSONVILLE is 21-34 ATS (38.2%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 12-23 ATS (34.3%) as a favorite since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 7-31 ATS (18%) vs. nonconference foes since 2014
* JACKSONVILLE is 23-15 Under the total (60.5%) since 2021
System Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (-3 vs. Atlanta), PLAY UNDER in Atl-Jax (o/u at 43)
* KANSAS CITY is 48-30 ATS (61.5%) in road/neutral games since 2014
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-10 at NY Jets)
* LA CHARGERS are 29-43 ATS (40%) at home since 2014
System Match: FADE LA CHARGERS (-5 vs. Las Vegas)
* LA RAMS are 19-9 ATS (67.9%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* LA RAMS are 8-15 ATS (35%) vs. nonconference foes since 2018
* LA RAMS are 35-23 UNDER the total (60.3%) since 2020
System Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LA RAMS (+1 at Indianapolis), PLAY UNDER in Lar-Ind (o/u at 46.5)
* LAS VEGAS is 25-41 ATS (37.9%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 20-11 ATS (65%) vs. divisional opponents since 2018
* LAS VEGAS is 29-43 ATS (40.3%) in road/neutral games since 2015
System Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of LAS VEGAS (+5 at LA Chargers)
* MIAMI is 30-18 ATS (62.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
* MIAMI is 48-30 ATS (62%) as an underdog since 2014
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+3 at Buffalo)
* MINNESOTA is 28-19-1 ATS (59.6%) when coming off SU loss since 2014
* MINNESOTA is 44-27 OVER the total (62%) since 2019
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-3.5 at Carolina), PLAY OVER in Min-Car (o/u at 45)
* NEW ENGLAND is 5-12 ATS (29.4%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+6.5 at Dallas)
* NEW ORLEANS is 21-13 ATS (62%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* NEW ORLEANS is 18-32 ATS (36%) at home since 2017
System Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of NEW ORLEANS (-3 vs. Tampa Bay)
* NY GIANTS are 35-17 Under the total (67.3%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER in SEA-NYG (o/u at 47)
* PITTSBURGH is 14-25 ATS (36%) as a favorite since 2018
* PITTSBURGH is 83-56 Underthe total (59.7%) since 2015
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-3 at Houston), PLAY UNDER in Pit-Hou (o/u at 42)
* SAN FRANCISCO is 30-19 ATS (61.2%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* SAN FRANCISCO is 16-10 ATS (61.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-14 vs. Arizona)
* SEATTLE is 34-45 ATS (43%) when coming off SU win since 2015
System Match: FADE SEATTLE ATS (-1 at NY Giants)
* TAMPA BAY is 18-31 ATS (37%) when coming off SU loss since 2016
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (+3 at New Orleans)
* TENNESSEE is 30-43 ATS (41.1%) in non-divisional conference games since 2014
System Match: FADE TENNESSEE (+2.5 vs. Cincinnati)
* WASHINGTON is 12-24 ATS (33%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 12-22 ATS (35%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
* WASHINGTON is 33-19 Under the total (63.5%) since 2020
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+8.5 at Philadelphia), PLAY UNDER in Was-Phi (o/u at 43.5)
Top NFL Head-to-Head Series Trends
These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:
Thursday, September 28
(101) DETROIT at (102) GREEN BAY
* DETROIT is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 vs. Green Bay
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS
Sunday, October 1
(275) ARIZONA at (276) SAN FRANCISCO
* The last three games in ARI-SF rivalry went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER in ARI-SF
(259) BALTIMORE at (260) CLEVELAND
* BALTIMORE is on 12-3 ATS run at Cleveland but lost last year
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE ATS
(269) CINCINNATI at (270) TENNESSEE
* CINCINNATI is on 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS run vs. Tennessee
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI ATS
(257) DENVER at (258) CHICAGO
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven DEN-CHI meetings
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DEN-CHI
(252) JACKSONVILLE vs. (251) ATLANTA
* ATLANTA is on 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS run vs. Jacksonville
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS
(277) KANSAS CITY at (278) NY JETS
* Home teams have won the last five ATS in KC-NYJ head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY NY JETS ATS
(263) LA RAMS at (264) INDIANAPOLIS
* The last six LAR-IND head-to-head meetings went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER in LAR-IND
(271) LAS VEGAS at (272) LA CHARGERS
* Under the total is 18-4 in the LVR-LAC series at Chargers since 2001
System Match: PLAY UNDER in LVR-LAC
(253) MIAMI at (254) BUFFALO
* Over the total is 11-5-1 in the last 17 MIA-BUF head-to-head matchups
System Match: PLAY OVER in MIA-BUF
(255) MINNESOTA at (256) CAROLINA
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six MIN-CAR head-to-head matchups
System Match: PLAY OVER in MIN-CAR
(273) NEW ENGLAND at (274) DALLAS
* Road teams have won the last five ATS in the NE-DAL head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND ATS
(261) PITTSBURGH at (262) HOUSTON
* Favorites have swept the last six games in PIT-HOU head-to-head series ATS
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH ATS
(265) TAMPA BAY at (266) NEW ORLEANS
* Road teams are on a 5-1 ATS run in the TB-NO head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY ATS
(267) WASHINGTON at (268) PHILADELPHIA
* WASHINGTON is 9-4-2 ATS in the last 15 trips to Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS
Monday, October 2
(279) SEATTLE at (280) NY GIANTS
* SEATTLE is on a 5-1 ATS run vs. the NY Giants
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE ATS