VSiN Analytics Report for Week 3
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 3. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Matchups
Avoid these Week 3 NFL traps
These are systems that look at the NFL week 3 slate while considering what the teams have accomplished in their first two games.
Teams that start out 0-2 SU in the NFL are 23-23 SU but 33-13 ATS (71.7%) against 1-1 teams in Week 3 since 2010
System Matches: CAROLINA (+6) at Seattle, NEW ENGLAND (-3) at New York Jets, HOUSTON (+9.5) at Jacksonville, CHICAGO (+12.5) at Kansas City, CINCINNATI (-2.5) vs. LA Rams
Winless teams in the NFL are 18-32-1 SU but 34-17 ATS (66.7%) in Week 3 when playing as underdogs of +3.5 points or more since 2010
System Matches: ARIZONA (+12.5) vs. Dallas, CAROLINA (+6) at Seattle, HOUSTON (+9.5) at Jacksonville, CHICAGO (+12.5) at Kansas City
Teams allowing more than 6.50 yards per play in the first two weeks have rebounded in week 3 with a record of 25-16 SU & 26-15 ATS (63.4%) since 2015.
System Match: LA CHARGERS (+1) at Minnesota
The league’s best defensive teams after two weeks, or those allowing 14 PPG or less so far, are 25-20 SU but just 14-30-1 ATS (31.8%) in week 3 since ’05 when favored by 3 points or more.
System Match: DALLAS (-11.5) at Arizona
Teams gaining more than 6.75 yards per play in the first two weeks have continued their impressive play in week 3 with a record of 17-7 SU and ATS (70.8%) since 2015.
System Match: MIAMI (-6) vs. Denver
Since 2008, the league’s best undefeated teams after two weeks, those having outscored teams by 25 points or more, are 24-21 SU but 15-28-2 ATS (34.9%) in Week 3.
System Matches: DALLAS (-11.5) at Arizona, SAN FRANCISCO (-10) vs. NY Giants
Strategies using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the Betting Splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals.
In an article published in the 2023 NFL Betting Guide Part 2, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 season. The stats of these systems are as of the start of the season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated article on Sunday morning.
DK Betting Splits system #1: When more than 65% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 35-53 ATS (39.8%). The number for this “supermajority” in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, MIAMI, BUFFALO, GREEN BAY, MINNESOTA, SEATTLE, KANSAS CITY, DALLAS, PHILADELPHIA
DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 66-92 ATS (41.8%). The NFL is the most public of all sports that can be bet. If 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings likes a particular side, fade ‘em. It's safe to assume that you don’t want to be part of the supermajority of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, MIAMI, NEW ENGLAND, BALTIMORE, TENNESSEE, BUFFALO, DETROIT, SEATTLE, KANSAS CITY, DALLAS, PHILADELPHIA
DraftKings bettors were at their absolute worst last season when analyzing divisional games:
DK Betting Splits system #3: In NFL divisional games of 2022, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group was just 36-64 ATS (36%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE BOTH): NEW ENGLAND, JACKSONVILLE
DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game last year, this majority group was just 37-60 ATS (38.1%).
System Matches (FADE BOTH): NEW ENGLAND, JACKSONVILLE
DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority handle and the number of bets were on road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups were just 36-52 ATS (40.9%) & 35-53 ATS (39.8%) respectively. Both are losing propositions, and most often, these majorities match up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, BUFFALO, DALLAS, PHILADELPHIA
DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle and the number of bets were on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups actually produced winning records, 26-25 ATS (51%) and 34-32 ATS (51.5%) respectively. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they win. In this case, mildly.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TENNESSEE, LA RAMS
DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and the number of bets backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games, these majority groups were just 28-44 ATS (38.9%) & 29-44 ATS (39.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, PHILADELPHIA, LA RAMS
DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 26-22 ATS (54.2%). This is another situation where going against the grain paid off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): GREEN BAY, BUFFALO, INDIANAPOLIS, NEW ENGLAND
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total last year was 44.2. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher, and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, the majority number of bettors struggled, going 28-53 ATS (34.6%). Not surprisingly, they sided with the favored team in 59 of the games.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, DETROIT, MINNESOTA, KANSAS CITY
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle was on the Under in an NFL game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 26-18 ATS (59.1%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets produced a 23-17 record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NE-NYJ, TEN-CLE, HOU-JAX, CAR-SEA, CHI-KC, DAL-ARI, PIT-LVR
DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for the supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably last season with a record of 38-63 (37.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same supermajority percentage produced a slightly improved 41-52 record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): DEN-MIA, IND-BAL, BUF-WAS, ATL-DET, PHI-TB
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over rap, but when a supermajority (>=64%) of the handle was on the Over and DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group lost big, going just 9-29 (23.7%). Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-TB
NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2023 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Jonathan Gannon (Arizona), DeMeco Ryans (Houston), Shane Steichen (Indianapolis) as well as retread coaches Sean Payton (Denver) and Frank Reich (Carolina).
Rookie Coach Systems
In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Divisional games 120-133-7 ATS (47.4%), These are not groundbreaking betting numbers by any means, but it could serve as a foundational concept that the more familiar the opponent, the less successful the rookie coach.
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+9.5 at Jacksonville)
Among the key challenges new head coaches face is keeping teams grounded after wins as they’ve gone 135-150-10 ATS (47.4%) in that situation.
System Match: FADE INDIANAPOLIS (+7.5 at Baltimore)
Re-tread Coach Systems
Re-tread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 89-136-6 ATS (39.6%)
System Matches: FADE DENVER (+6 at Miami), FADE CAROLINA (+6 at Seattle)
There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2013, when coming off a loss, the record has been just 94-127-7 ATS (42.5%).
System Matches: FADE DENVER (+6 at Miami), FADE CAROLINA (+6 at Seattle)
NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters out of the gate in 2023 include Bryce Young (Carolina), CJ Stroud (Houston), and Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis), although others could join them down the road.
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
- Earlier I indicated winning percentages of 40.9% straight up and 50.4% ATS for rookie quarterbacks since 2004. The results of late are far worse. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are just 145-273-2 SU (34.7%) and 191-226-3 ATS (45.8%).
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA (+6 at Seattle), FADE HOUSTON (+9.5 at Jacksonville), FADE INDIANAPOLIS (+7.5 at Baltimore)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #3 – Rookie quarterbacks have gotten off to very slow starts of late
- As part of their overall recent struggles, rookie quarterbacks have struggled for bettors as early season starters, going 2-20-1 SU and 5-17-1 ATS (22.7%) in their last 23 Week 1-3 games. They are also on a 23-8 UNDER the total run in their last 31 such contest.
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA (+6 at Seattle), FADE HOUSTON (+9.5 at Jacksonville), FADE INDIANAPOLIS (+7.5 at Baltimore)
Also: Play Under in these three contests
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
- The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 100-107-1 ATS (48.3%) in home games but just 91-114 ATS (44.4%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-18, they are just 27-80 SU and 42-63-2 ATS (40%).
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA (+6 at Seattle), FADE HOUSTON (+9.5 at Jacksonville), FADE INDIANAPOLIS (+7.5 at Baltimore)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
- Since 2004, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 7 points or more have won just 25 games, going 25-158 SU and 74-100-9 ATS (42.5%).
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (+9.5 at Jacksonville), FADE INDIANAPOLIS (+7.5 at Baltimore)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been tough for rookie starting quarterbacks
- The breakdown of success levels against Division, Conference, and Non-Conference opponents has been definitive for rookie starting quarterbacks. Since the start of the 2013 season, versus non-divisional conference and non-conference opponents, they are about 49% ATS. However, against divisional foes, they are just 63-87-1 ATS (42%). As divisional dogs of 5 points or more, rookie QBs are just 6-61 SU & 24-42-1 ATS (36.4%) in that span.
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+9.5 at Jacksonville)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
- In their last 102 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 31-73-1 SU and 43-61-1 ATS (41.3%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA (+6 at Seattle), FADE HOUSTON (+9.5 at Jacksonville)
TNF, SNF and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday NIGHT games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played ON SUNDAY NIGHT, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew which also included some Wednesday & Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 26-22 SU and 30-16-2 ATS (65.2%) in the last 48.
System Match: PLAY NY GIANTS
- There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 17-15 SU but 8-22-2 ATS (26.7%). However, home-field advantage has picked up slightly in the second half of the season in recent years, with week 9-17 home teams going 14-17 SU and 15-18 ATS (75%) in that same time span. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 & later are 30-23 SU and 31-20-2 ATS (60.8%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO
- NFL Home Favorites of 7 points or more are on a 26-2 SU and 19-7-2 ATS (73.1%) run on Thursday games since the start of the 2014 season.
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO
Bad TNF Team Trends
NY Giants 0-6 SU slide but two straight ATS wins
System Match: FADE NY GIANTS SU
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have gone the complete opposite direction, showing a record of 9-11 SU & 5-15 ATS (25%) in their last 20 after going 40-18-2 ATS prior.
System Match: FADE LAS VEGAS
- SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 7-17 SU and ATS (29.2%) in their last 24 tries against teams off a win.
System Match: FADE LAS VEGAS
- Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 9-12 SU and 8-12-1 (40%) in their last 21, but those coming off a win are on a current 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS (62.5%) surge..
System Match: FADE LAS VEGAS
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 9-7 SU and 11-4-1 ATS (73.3%) dating back to September ’21. The last 14 of these games have seen UNDER the total go 12-1-1 (92.3%) as well, games producing just 34.3 PPG.
System Matches: PLAY TAMPA BAY, also PLAY UNDER in PHI-TB
- In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 19-19 SU but 9-28-1 ATS (23.7%) in the last 38.
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI ATS
- In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on a 12-11 SU and 16-7 ATS (69.7%) surge since ’19.
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY
- Won/lost records have mattered on MNF as teams with the better record are 26-18 but just 15-26-1 ATS (34.9%) in the last 44 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match: FADE LA RAMS ATS
UNDER the total MNF Team Trends
Cincinnati 4-1-1 UNDER last six, scoring 15.5 PPG
System Match: PLAY UNDER in LAR-CIN
Philadelphia are 8-3-1 UNDER in the last 12
System Match: PLAY UNDER in PHI-TB
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going OVER or UNDER regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF & MNF) Team Trends
NY Giants are 3-18 SU since last back-to-back wins (9-12 ATS)
System Match: FADE NY GIANTS
Tampa Bay are 10-13 SU and 6-17 ATS in their last 23
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY
UNDER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF & MNF) Team Trends
LA Rams 12-3 UNDER surge
System Match: PLAY UNDER in LAR-CIN
This week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
This week's Top 5 UNDERPRICE UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NY JETS +3 (+4.6), 2. WASHINGTON +6.5 (+1.3), 3. PITTSBURGH +2.5 (+1.1), 4. TAMPA BAY +4.5 (+0.8), 5. NEW ORLEANS +2 (+0.6)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BALTIMORE -8 (+1.8), 2(tie). MIAMI -6 (+1.5) and DALLAS -12 (+1.5), 4. CLEVELAND -3 (+1.4), 5(tie). MINNESOTA -1 (+1.0) and DETROIT -3.5 (+1.0)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). PITTSBURGH +2.5 (+2.0) and INDIANAPOLIS +8 (+2.0), 3(tie). HOUSTON +9.5 (+1.9) and NEW ORLEANS +2 (+1.9), 5. ATLANTA +3.5 (+0.1)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ENGLAND -3 (+3.2), 2. PHILADELPHIA -4.5 (+2.4), 3. MINNESOTA -1 (+2.2), 4(tie). DALLAS -12 (+2.0) and CINCINNATI -2.5 (+2.0)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TEN-CLE OVER 39.5 (+2.2), 2. NYG-SF OVER 44.5 (+1.9), 3. ATL-DET OVER 46.5 (+1.7), 4(tie). NO-GB OVER 42 (+1.4) and PHI-TB OVER 45.5 (+1.4)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-MIN UNDER 54.5 (-4.6), 2. IND-BAL UNDER 44.5 (-1.5), 3. LAR-CIN UNDER 43.5 (-1.1), 4. DAL-ARI UNDER 43.5 (-0.6), 5. PIT-LVR UNDER 43.5 (-0.4)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NY JETS +3 (+5.3), 2. PITTSBURGH +2.5 (+1.7), 3. WASHINGTON +6.5 (+1.4), 4(tie). CAROLINA +6 (+1.2) and HOUSTON +9.5 (+1.2)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -12 (+1.7), 2. CLEVELAND -3 (+1.6), 3(tie). MINNESOTA -1 (+0.4) and GREEN BAY -2 (+0.4), 5. KANSAS CITY -12.5 (+0.3)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TEN-CLE OVER 39.5 (+4.7), 2. ATL-DET OVER 46.5 (+1.9), 3. DEN-MIA OVER 48 (+1.6), 4. CAR-SEA OVER 42 (+1.2), 5. NYG-SF OVER 44.5 (+1.1)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-MIN UNDER 54.5 (-3.8), 2. PIT-LVR UNDER 43.5 (-2.7), 3. LAR-CIN UNDER 43.5 (-1.0), 4(tie). NE-NYJ UNDER 36.5 (-0.8) and NO-GB UNDER 42 (-0.8)
Top NFL Starting Quarterback Betting Trends
Here are 19 top betting trends detailing various quarterback performance records in situations as a starter:
* Jared Goff (DET) is 13-19 SU but 22-10 ATS (68.8%) with current HC Dan Campbell. The average line was +4.5, Team average PF: 22.9
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS (-3.5 vs Atlanta)
* Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) is 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS (72.2%) in home games. The average line was -1.9, Team average PF: 23.8
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-6 vs. Denver)
* Derek Carr (NO) is 14-24 SU and 13-23-2 ATS (36.1%) vs. NFC foes. The average line was +1, Team average PF: 19.8
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (+2 at Green Bay)
* Justin Fields (CHI) is 4-18 SU and 6-16 ATS (27.3%) in Sunday games. The average line was +4.5, Team average PF: 19.1
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (+12.5 at Kansas City)
* Patrick Mahomes (KC) is 23-1 SU but 9-14-1 ATS (39.1%) in his last 18 games as a favorite of more than 7 points. The average line was -10.9, Team average PF: 28.7
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY ATS (-12.5 vs. Chicago)
Top NFL Team Situational Trends
These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
* ARIZONA is 17-24 ATS (41.5%) at home since 2018
* ARIZONA is 15-8 ATS (65.2%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (+11.5 vs Dallas)
* BALTIMORE is 38-50 ATS (43%) as a favorite since 2015
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-7.5 vs Indianapolis)
* BUFFALO is 22-14 ATS (61%) in road/neutral games since 2019
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-6.5 at Washington)
* CAROLINA is 15-26 ATS (37%) in non-divisional conference games since 2018
System Match: FADE CAROLINA (+6 at Seattle)
* CHICAGO is 13-27 ATS (32.5%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* CHICAGO is 20-38 ATS (34.5%) in road/neutral games since 2016
* CHICAGO is 16-32 ATS (33%) as an underdog since 2019
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (+12.5 at Kansas City)
* CLEVELAND is 24-38 ATS (39%) at home since 2015
* CLEVELAND is 13-26 ATS (33%) as a favorite since 2017
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-3.5 vs Tennessee)
* DALLAS is 25-14 ATS (64%) in non-divisional conference games since 2019
* DALLAS is 14-6 ATS (70%) in road/neutral games since 2021
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-11.5 at Arizona)
* DENVER is 83-50 UNDER the total (62.4%) since 2015
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DEN-MIA (o/u at 48)
* DETROIT is 13-4 ATS (76.5%) at home since 2021
* DETROIT is 24-11 ATS (68.6%) overall since 2021
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-3.5 vs Atlanta)
* GREEN BAY is 17-9 ATS (65%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* GREEN BAY is 23-13 ATS (64%) at home since 2019
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (-2 vs. New Orleans)
* JACKSONVILLE is 21-33 ATS (39%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 12-22 ATS (35%) as a favorite since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 23-14 UNDER the total (62.2%) since 2021
System Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (-9.5 vs. Houston), PLAY UNDER in HOU-JAX (o/u at 44)
* KANSAS CITY is 8-3 ATS (73%) vs. non-conference foes since 2021
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-12.5 vs Chicago)
* LA CHARGERS are 12-6 ATS (67%) as an underdog since 2020
System Match: PLAY LA CHARGERS (+1 at Minnesota)
* LA RAMS are 19-9 ATS (67.9%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* LA RAMS are 8-15 ATS (35%) vs. non-conference foes since 2018
* LA RAMS are 34-23 UNDER the total (59.6%) since 2020
System Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LA RAMS (+2.5 at Cincinnati), PLAY UNDER in LAR-CIN (o/u at 43.5)
* LAS VEGAS is 25-40 ATS (38%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 10-17 ATS (37%) as a favorite since 2019
System Match: FADE LAS VEGAS (-2.5 vs Pittsburgh)
* MIAMI is 50-24 ATS (68%) at home since 2014
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-6 vs. Denver)
* MINNESOTA is 28-18-1 ATS (61%) when coming off SU loss since 2014
* MINNESOTA is 10-17 ATS (37%) at home since 2020
* MINNESOTA is 28-14 ATS (67%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
* MINNESOTA is 44-26 OVER the total (62.9%) since 2019
System Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of Minnesota (-1 vs. LA Chargers), PLAY OVER in LAC-MIN (o/u at 54)
* NEW ORLEANS is 30-13-1 ATS (70%) in road/neutral games since 2018
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+2 at Green Bay)
* NY GIANTS are 34-17 UNDER the total (66.7%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NYG-SF (o/u at 44.5)
* NY JETS are 16-27 ATS (37%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016
System Match: FADE NY JETS (+3 vs New England)
* PHILADELPHIA is 13-23 ATS (36%) in road/neutral games since 2019
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-4.5 at Tampa Bay)
* PITTSBURGH is 82-56 UNDER the total (59.4%) since 2015
* PITTSBURGH is 25-13 ATS (65.8%) as an underdog since 2018
System Match: PLAY UNDER in PIT-LVR (o/u at 43.5), PLAY PITTSBURGH (+2.5 at Las Vegas)
* SAN FRANCISCO is 29-19 ATS (60.4%) when coming off SU win since 2019
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-10 vs NY Giants)
* SEATTLE is 33-45 ATS (42%) when coming off SU win since 2015
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (-6 vs. Carolina)
* TAMPA BAY is 31-41 ATS (43.1%) at home since 2014
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (+4.5 vs Philadelphia)
* TENNESSEE is 30-42 ATS (41.7%) in non-divisional conference games since 2014
System Match: FADE TENNESSEE (+3.5 at Cleveland)
* WASHINGTON is 16-7 ATS (69.6%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 32-19 UNDER the total (62.7%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+6.5 vs. Buffalo), PLAY UNDER in BUF-WAS (o/u at 44.5)
Top NFL Head-to-Head Series Trends
These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:
Thursday, September 21
NY GIANTS at SAN FRANCISCO
ROAD TEAMS are on 6-1 ATS run in NYG-SF head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY NY GIANTS ATS
Sunday, September 24
ATLANTA at DETROIT
UNDER the total is 10-3 in ATL-DET head-to-head series since 1998
System Match: PLAY UNDER in ATL-DET
BUFFALO at WASHINGTON
BUFFALO is on an 8-1 ATS run vs. Washington
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO ATS
CAROLINA at SEATTLE
OVER the total is 7-0 in CAR-SEA series since 2015
System Match: PLAY OVER in CAR-SEA
CHICAGO at KANSAS CITY
The last 7 games of CHI-KC head-to-head series went UNDER the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER in CHI-KC
DALLAS at ARIZONA
ARIZONA is on a 6-1 ATS run vs. Dallas
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA ATS
DENVER at MIAMI
UNDERDOGS are on a 7-0-1 ATS run in the last eight DEN-MIA matchups
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS
HOUSTON at JACKSONVILLE
HOUSTON is on an 8-3 ATS run at Jacksonville
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS
INDIANAPOLIS at BALTIMORE
INDIANAPOLIS is 7-1 in their last eight at Baltimore
System Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS
LA CHARGERS at MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA has won their last five ATS versus Chargers
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS
NEW ENGLAND at NY JETS
NEW ENGLAND is on a 9-2 ATS run vs. NY Jets
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND ATS
NEW ORLEANS at GREEN BAY
OVER the total is 9-2 in NO-GB head-to-head series since 1995
System Match: PLAY OVER in NO-GB
PITTSBURGH at LAS VEGAS
RAIDERS have won their last four ATS hosting Pittsburgh
System Match: PLAY LAS VEGAS ATS
TENNESSEE at CLEVELAND
OVER the total is 10-2 in TEN-CLE head-to-head series since 2001
System Match: PLAY OVER in TEN-CLE
Monday, September 25
LA RAMS at CINCINNATI
UNDER the total is 8-1 in the last nine games of the LAR-CIN head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY UNDER in LAR-CIN
PHILADELPHIA at TAMPA BAY
HOME TEAMS have won the last three ATS in the PHI-TB head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY ATS