VSiN Analytics Report for Week 2
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 2. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Matchups
NFL betting systems turn Week 1 results into Week 2 profit
These systems take into account the NFL Week 1 results and use them to build actionable betting concepts for Week 2 (article with further analysis on VSiN website).
1. Week 2 teams playing as favorites OR underdogs of less than 3 points against an opponent that scored more than 30 points in the prior week are 44-16 SU & 38-19-3 ATS (66.7%) since '03 (+17 units, R.O.I.: 28.3%, Grade 62)
2023 Plays: SAN FRANCISCO, KANSAS CITY, NEW ENGLAND, ATLANTA
2. Teams that beat their Week 1 point spread by 8 points or more in non-conference games are 20-9-3 UNDER (69%) the total in Week 2 since 2002 (+10.1 units, R.O.I.: 31.6%, Grade 64)
2023 Play: PLAY UNDER in SAN FRANCISCO-LA RAMS
3. Teams playing a second straight divisional game in Week 2 are an impressive 34-16-1 SU and ATS (68%) since 2003 (+16.4 units, R.O.I.: 32.2%, Grade 65)
2023 Plays: CLEVELAND, CINCINNATI, CAROLINA, LA RAMS, INDIANAPOLIS
4. Teams playing as underdogs in their second of back-to-back divisional games are 15-14-1 SU and 20-10 ATS (66.7%) in Week 2 since 2004 (+9 units, R.O.I.: 30%, Grade 63)
2023 Plays: LA RAMS, CAROLINA
5. Teams that lost (or tied) as road favorites in Week 1 have bounced back with a record of 20-11 SU and ATS (64.5%) in Week 2 over the last 11 seasons (+7.9 units, R.O.I.: 25.5%, Grade 60)
2023 Plays: CINCINNATI, BUFFALO
6. Teams that lost on the point spread by more than 14 points in Week 1 divisional games are 14-7 SU and 14-6-1 ATS (70%) in Week 2 since 2007 (+7.4 units, R.O.I.: 35.2%, Grade 65)
2023 Plays: SEATTLE, CHICAGO, CINCINNATI, NY GIANTS
7. Teams that won close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 37-18-1 UNDER (67.3%) the total in Week 2 since '05 (+16.1 units, R.O.I.: 28.8%, Grade 65)
2023 Plays: UNDER in Seattle-DETROIT, Chicago-TAMPA BAY, LAS VEGAS-Buffalo, MIAMI-New England, NEW ORLEANS-Carolina
8. Week 2 teams that went under their Week 1 total by at least 17 points are 25-17 OVER (59.5%) the total since 2008 (+7.3 units, R.O.I.: 17.5%, Grade 52)
2023 Plays: OVER in Baltimore-CINCINNATI, CLEVELAND-Pittsburgh
9. Teams that lost by double-digits in Week 1 have responded by going 45-25-2 ATS (64.3%) in Week 2 over the last 11 seasons (+17.5 units, R.O.I.: 24.3%, Grade 60)
2023 Plays: SEATTLE, CAROLINA, CHICAGO, CINCINNATI, PITTSBURGH, NY GIANTS
10. Teams whose opponent played in the weeknight season-opening game and thus have extra rest are 14-22 SU but 21-14-1 ATS (60%) in Week 2 since '05 (+5.6 units, R.O.I.: 15.6%, Grade 55)
2023 Plays: SEATTLE, JACKSONVILLE
11. Teams that recorded big Week 1 divisional wins by 7 points or more are 26-20 SU and 25-17-2 ATS (59.5%) since '06 in week 2 (+6.3 units, R.O.I.: 14.3%, Grade 52)
2023 Plays: DALLAS, CLEVELAND, LA RAMS, JACKSONVILLE
Strategies using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the Betting Splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals.
In an article published in the 2023 NFL Betting Guide Part 2, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 season. The stats of these systems are as of the start of the season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated article on Sunday morning.
DK Betting Splits system #1: When more than 65% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 35-53 ATS (39.8%). The number for this “supermajority” in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BUFFALO, KANSAS CITY, LA CHARGERS, DETROIT, GREEN BAY, NY GIANTS, SAN FRANCISCO, DALLAS, MIAMI, CLEVELAND
DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 66-92 ATS (41.8%). The NFL is the most public of all sports that can be bet. If 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings likes a particular side, fade ‘em. It's safe to assume that you don’t want to be part of the supermajority of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BALTIMORE, INDIANAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY, LA CHARGERS, GREEN BAY, NY GIANTS, SAN FRANCISCO, DALLAS, MIAMI, NEW ORLEANS, CLEVELAND
DraftKings bettors were at their absolute worst last season when analyzing divisional games:
DK Betting Splits system #3: In NFL divisional games of 2022, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group was just 36-64 ATS (36%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, INDIANAPOLIS, SAN FRANCISCO, MIAMI, NEW ORLEANS, CLEVELAND
DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game last year, this majority group was just 37-60 ATS (38.1%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, INDIANAPOLIS, SAN FRANCISCO, MIAMI, NEW ORLEANS, CLEVELAND
DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority handle and the number of bets were on road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups were just 36-52 ATS (40.9%) & 35-53 ATS (39.8%) respectively. Both are losing propositions, and most often, these majorities match up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY, LA CHARGERS, GREEN BAY, NY GIANTS, SAN FRANCISCO, MIAMI, NEW ORLEANS, CLEVELAND
DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of BETS backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games, these majority groups were just 28-44 ATS (38.9%) & 29-44 ATS (39.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, MIAMI, NEW ORLEANS, CLEVELAND
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total last year was 44.2. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher, and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, the majority number of bettors struggled, going 28-53 ATS (34.6%). Not surprisingly, they sided with the favored team in 59 of the games.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, LAS VEGAS, BALTIMORE, KANSAS CITY, DETROIT, MIAMI
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle was on the Under in an NFL game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 26-18 ATS (59.1%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets produced a 23-17 record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): LVR-BUF, BAL-CIN, IND-HOU, LAC-TEN, SEA-DET, CHI-TB, WAS-DEN, NYJ-DAL, CLE-PIT
DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #11, the magic mark for the supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably last season with a record of 38-63 (37.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same supermajority percentage produced a slightly improved 41-52 record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): KC-JAX, SF-LAR
NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2023 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Jonathan Gannon (Arizona), DeMeco Ryans (Houston), Shane Steichen (Indianapolis) as well as retread coaches Sean Payton (Denver) and Frank Reich (Carolina).
Rookie Coach Systems
In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Divisional games 120-133-7 ATS (47.4%), These are not groundbreaking betting numbers by any means, but it could serve as a foundational concept that the more familiar the opponent, the less successful the rookie coach.
System Match: *CONFLICT b/c HOUSTON and INDIANAPOLIS play against each other
Re-tread Coach Systems
Like the rookie head coaches, retread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. In fact, their record in home games is 79-116 ATS (40.5%).
System Match: FADE CAROLINA
Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites since 2013. They’ve gone 86-64 SU but just 49-90-11 ATS, for 35.3%!
System Match: FADE DENVER
Digging deeper into the two trends described just above, as home favorites, retread coaches have gone just 55-39 SU and 29-60-5 ATS (32.6%) in their first seasons over the last decade.
System Match: FADE DENVER
Retread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in Weeks 1-10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 89-135-5 ATS (39.7%)
System Match: FADE DENVER, FADE CAROLINA
There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these retread head coaches. Since 2013, when coming off a loss, the record has been just 94-126-6 ATS (42.7%).
System Match: FADE DENVER, FADE CAROLINA
NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters out of the gate in 2023 include Bryce Young (Carolina), CJ Stroud (Houston), and Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis), although others could join them down the road.
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
- Earlier, I indicated winning percentages of 40.9% straight up and 50.4% ATS for rookie quarterbacks since 2004. The results of late are far worse. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are just 144-271-2 SU (34.7%) and 190-225-2 ATS (45.8%).
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (+1 vs. Indianapolis), FADE INDIANAPOLIS (-1 at Houston), FADE CAROLINA (+3 vs. New Orleans)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #3 – Rookie quarterbacks have gotten off to very slow starts of late
- As part of their overall recent struggles, rookie quarterbacks have struggled for bettors as early season starters, going 1-18-1 SU and 4-16 ATS (20%) in their L20 week 1-3 games. They are also on a 22-6 Under the total run in their last 28 such contests.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (+1 vs. Indianapolis), FADE INDIANAPOLIS (-1 at Houston), FADE CAROLINA (+3 vs. New Orleans)
ALSO: PLAY UNDER IN THESE 2 GAMES
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
- The results of late for rookie quarterbacks on the road are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 100-106 ATS (48.5%) in home games but just 90-114 ATS (44.1%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-18, they are just 27-80 SU and 42-63-2 ATS (40%).
System Match: FADE INDIANAPOLIS (-1 at Houston)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been tough for rookie starting quarterbacks
- The breakdown of success levels against Division, Conference, and Non-Conference opponents has been definitive for rookie starting quarterbacks. Since the start of the 2013 season, versus non-divisional conference and non-conference opponents, they are about 49% ATS. However, against divisional foes, they are just 62-86 ATS (41.9%). As divisional dogs of 5 points or more, rookie QBs are just 6-61 SU and 24-42-1 ATS (36.4%) in that span.
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA (+3 vs. New Orleans), *CONFLICT b/c HOUSTON and INDIANAPOLIS play against each other
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
- In their last 102 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 30-71-1 SU and 42-60 ATS (41.2%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA (+3 vs. New Orleans), *CONFLICT b/c HOUSTON and INDIANAPOLIS play against each other
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Non-Sunday games have been a respite for rookie QBs
- Rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 9-11 SU but 13-7 ATS (65%) in their last 20 such tries. Moreover, they are 14-5 ATS (73.7%) in their last 19 Monday Night contests.
System Match: PLAY CAROLINA (+3 vs. New Orleans on MNF)
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
Shutouts are extremes
- Teams that get shut out in a game have been solid bounce-back teams in the next outing, going 22-33 SU but 33-20-2 ATS (62.3%) since 2012.
System Match: PLAY NY GIANTS ATS (-5.5 at Arizona)
Blowout games are red flags
- NFL teams that lose by 35 points or more in a home or neutral field game have been fantastic bets in the follow-up contest, going 9-11-2 SU but 18-4 ATS (81.8%) in their last 22 tries.
System Match: PLAY NY GIANTS ATS (-5.5 at Arizona)
- NFL teams that beat a point spread by 32 points or more in any given game have gone just 17-14 SU and 10-21 ATS (32.3%) when playing at home the next week since 2012.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-9 vs. NY Jets)
TNF, SNF and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday NIGHT games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played ON SUNDAY NIGHT, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew which also included some Wednesday & Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 26-21 SU and 30-16-1 ATS (65.2%) in the last 47.
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS
- There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 16-15 SU but 8-22-1 ATS (26.7%). However, home-field advantage has picked up slightly in the second half of the season in recent years, with week 9-17 home teams going 14-17 SU and 15-18 ATS (75%) in that same time span. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 & later are 30-23 SU and 31-20-2 ATS (60.8%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA ATS
- NFL Home Favorites of 7 points or more are on a 26-2 SU and 19-7-2 ATS (73.1%) run on Thursday games since the start of the 2014 season.
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA
- There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 3+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 14-12 SU and 19-6-1 ATS (76%) record.
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 15-16 SU and 19-10-2 ATS (65.5%) dating back to 2017.
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND ATS
- Home-field advantage has been big in divisional SNF games of late, with hosts owning a 17-11 SY and 16-11-1 ATS (59.3%) record since 2019.
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND
- SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 7-16 SU & ATS (30.4%) in their last 23 tries against teams off a win.
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND
- Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last game are just 9-11 SU and 8-11-1 ATS (42.1%) in their last 20, but those coming off a win are on a current 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS (62.5%) surge.
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND
Good SNF Team Trends
New England 7-2 ATS at home since ‘13
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND ATS
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 8-6 SU and 10-4 ATS (71.4%) dating back to September ’21. The last 12 of these games have seen UNDER the total go 11-0-1 (100%) as well, games producing just 32.9 PPG.
System Match: PLAY CAROLINA and PLAY PITTSBURGH, PLAY UNDER in BOTH games as well
- Home teams have enjoyed little advantage in divisional MNF games of late, going 15-13 SU and 10-17-1 ATS (37%) in their last 20 tries.
System Match: FADE CAROLINA ATS, FADE PITTSBURGH ATS
- Blowout wins have been great momentum builders for road MNF teams, as those coming off wins by 20 points or more have gone 9-3 SU and ATS (75%) in their last 12 tries.
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND
Bad MNF Team Trends
New Orleans 4-12 ATS in the last 16
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS ATS
UNDER the total MNF Team Trends
Cleveland 4-1-1 Under run
System Match: PLAY UNDER in CLE-PIT
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF and MNF) Team Trends
Carolina 7-12 SU and 6-13 ATS in the last 19 primetime games
System Match: FADE CAROLINA
UNDER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF and MNF) Team Trends
Cleveland 16-5-1 primetime Under run
System Match: PLAY UNDER in CLE-PIT
Miami seven straight UNDERS
System Match: PLAY UNDER in MIA-NE
Minnesota 18-9 UNDER primetime record since 2015
System Match: PLAY UNDER in MIN-PHI
New Orleans UNDERS in 16 of the last 20 on the road
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NO-CAR
This week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
This week's Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. JACKSONVILLE +3 (+4.1), 2. TENNESSEE +3 (+2.7), 3. ATLANTA +2 (+2.1), 4. NEW ENGLAND +2.5 (+1.8), 5. PITTSBURGH +2 (+1.7)
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -7 (+2.0), 2. DENVER -3.5 (+1.4), 3. DETROIT -5.5 (+0.2)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. JACKSONVILLE +3 (+6.5), 2. ATLANTA +2 (+5.9), 3. TENNESSEE +3 (+3.0), 4. CHICAGO +3 (+2.3), 5. BALTIMORE +3.5 (+1.3)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NY GIANTS -5.5 (+1.4), 2. CLEVELAND -2 (+1.1), 3(tie). DENVER -3.5 (+0.7) and SAN FRANCISCO -7.5 (+0.7), 5. DALLAS -9 (+0.4)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GB-ATL OVER 40.5 (+3.2), 2. NYJ-DAL OVER 39 (+2.6), 3. SEA-DET OVER 47.5 (+2.4), 4. CHI-TB OVER 41 (+2.2), 5. KC-JAX OVER 51 (+1.3)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-NE UNDER 47 (-1.0), 2. MIN-PHI UNDER 49 (-0.8), 3. LVR-BUF UNDER 46.5 (-0.5), 4. BAL-CIN UNDER 46.5 (-0.4), 5. WAS-DEN UNDER 38.5 (-0.2)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NY JETS +9 (+3.2), 2. BALTIMORE +3.5 (+2.7), 3. JACKSONVILLE +3 (+2.4), 4. NEW ENGLAND +2.5 (+1.9), 5. TENNESSEE +3 (+1.8)
This week’s Top 4 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -3.5 (+1.0), 2. PHILADELPHIA -7 (+0.9), 3. NY GIANTS -5.5 (+0.5), 4. BUFFALO -8.5 (+0.3)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). GB-ATL OVER 40.5 (+4.1) and NYJ-DAL OVER 39 (+4.1), 3. CHI-TB OVER 41 (+3.0), 4. SEA-DET OVER 47.5 (+2.5), 5. IND-HOU OVER 39.5 (+2.4)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SF-LAR UNDER 44.5 (-2.0), 2(tie). KC-JAX UNDER 51 (-1.5) and BAL-CIN UNDER 46.5 (-1.5) and NO-CAR UNDER 40 (-1.5), 5. MIA-NE UNDER 47 (-0.9)
Top NFL Starting Quarterback Betting Trends
Here are some top betting trends detailing various quarterback performance records in situations as a starter:
* Jared Goff (DET) is 13-18 SU but 22-9 ATS (71%) with current head coach Dan Campbell. The average line was +4.8, Team average PF: 22.6
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS (-5.5 vs Seattle)
* Jalen Hurts (PHI) is 12-1 SU and 10-2-1 ATS (83.3%) as a home favorite. The average line was -7.8, Team average PF: 30.9
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-6 vs Minnesota)
* Lamar Jackson (BAL) is 8-5 SU and 11-2 ATS (85%) as an underdog. The average line was +3.1, Team average PF: 24.8
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (+3.5 at Cincinnati)
* Ryan Tannehill (TEN) is 16-10 SU and 16-7-3 ATS (70%) as a home underdog. The average line was +3.7, Team average PF: 24.7
System Match: PLAY TENNESSEE (+3 vs Los Angeles Chargers)
* Derek Carr (NO) is 13-24 SU and 13-23-1 ATS (36.1%) vs. NFC foes. The average line was +1.1, Team average PF: 19.8
* Derek Carr (NO) is 28-20 SU and 16-30 ATS (34.8%) as a Favorite. The average line was -3.9, Team average PF: 23.4
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS ATS (-3 at Carolina)
* Justin Fields (CHI) is 4-17 SU and 6-15 ATS (28.6%) in Sunday games. The average line was +4.6, Team average PF: 19.2
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (+3 at Tampa Bay)
* Matthew Stafford (LAR) is 2-14 SU and 4-11-1 ATS (27%) as an underdog of more than 7 points. The average line was +10.7, Team average PF: 17.1
System Match: FADE LA RAMS (+7.5 vs San Francisco)
* Mac Jones (NE) is 0-9 SU and ATS (0%) as an underdog of 7 points or less. The average line was +2.9, Team average PF: 18.3
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+2.5 vs Miami)
Top NFL Team Situational Trends
These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
* ARIZONA is 16-24 ATS (40%) at home since 2018
* ARIZONA is 14-8 ATS (64%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: 1 PLAY on Arizona, 1 FADE on Arizona (+5.5 vs. NY Giants)
* ATLANTA is 15-25 ATS (38%) at home since 2018
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+1.5 vs Green Bay)
* BALTIMORE is 32-17 ATS (65%) in road/neutral games since 2017
* BALTIMORE is 22-7 ATS (76%) as an underdog since 2017
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (+3.5 at Cincinnati)
* BUFFALO is 32-22 ATS (59%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-8.5 vs Las Vegas)
* CAROLINA is 11-21 ATS (34%) at home since 2019
System Match: FADE CAROLINA (+3 vs. New Orleans)
* CHICAGO is 13-26 ATS (33%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* CHICAGO is 24-38 ATS (39%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
* CHICAGO is 20-37 ATS (35%) in road/neutral games since 2016
* CHICAGO is 16-31 ATS (34%) as an underdog since 2019
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (+2.5 at Tampa Bay)
* CLEVELAND is 17-32 ATS (35%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
* CLEVELAND is 13-25 ATS (34%) as a favorite since 2017
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-2 at Pittsburgh)
* DENVER is 14-29 ATS (33%) as a favorite since 2017
* DENVER is 83-49 UNDER the total (63%) since 2015
System Match: FADE DENVER (-3.5 vs. Washington), PLAY UNDER in WAS-DEN (o/u at 38.5)
* DETROIT is 13-3 ATS (81%) at home since 2021
* DETROIT is 24-10 ATS (71%) overall since 2021
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-5.5 vs Seattle)
* JACKSONVILLE is 22-14 UNDER the total (61%) since 2021
System Match: PLAY UNDER in KC-JAX (o/u at 51)
* KANSAS CITY is 47-30 ATS (61%) in road/neutral games since 2014
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-3 at Jacksonville)
* LA RAMS are 34-22 UNDER the total (61%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER in SF-LAR (o/u at 44.5)
* LAS VEGAS is 29-42 ATS (41%) in road/neutral games since 2015
System Match: FADE LAS VEGAS (+8.5 at Buffalo)
* MIAMI is 29-18 ATS (62%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-2.5 at New England)
* MINNESOTA is 28-18 ATS (61%) when coming off SU loss since 2014
* MINNESOTA is 43-26 OVER the total (62%) since 2019
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (+6 at Philadelphia), PLAY OVER in MIN-PHI (o/u at 49)
* NEW ENGLAND is 5-11 ATS (31%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+2.5 vs Miami)
* NEW ORLEANS is 30-13 ATS (70%) in road/neutral games since 2018
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (-3 at Carolina)
* NY GIANTS are 34-16 UNDER the total (68%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NYG-ARI (o/u at 40)
* NY JETS are 9-20 ATS (31%) when coming off SU win since 2017
* NY JETS are 11-22 ATS (33%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
* NY JETS are 16-34 ATS (32%) in road/neutral games since 2017
System Match: FADE NY JETS (+9 at Dallas)
* PITTSBURGH is 82-55 UNDER the total (60%) since 2015
* PITTSBURGH is 24-13 ATS (65%) as an underdog since 2018
System Match: PLAY UNDER in CLE-PIT (o/u at 39.5), PLAY PITTSBURGH (+2 vs Cleveland)
* SAN FRANCISCO is 29-18 ATS (62%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* SAN FRANCISCO is 16-9 ATS (64%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-7.5 at Los Angeles Rams)
* SEATTLE is 28-17 ATS (62%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
* SEATTLE is 28-18 ATS (61%) as an underdog since 2016
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+5.5 at Detroit)
* TAMPA BAY is 30-41 ATS (42%) at home since 2014
* TAMPA BAY is 27-42 ATS (39%) as a favorite since 2014
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (-3 vs Chicago)
* TENNESSEE is 29-42 ATS (41%) in non-divisional conference games since 2014
System Match: FADE TENNESSEE (+3 vs Los Angeles Chargers)
* WASHINGTON is 12-24 ATS (33%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 32-18 UNDER the total (64%) since 2020
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+3.5 at Denver), PLAY UNDER in WAS-DEN (o/u at 38.5)
Top NFL Head-to-Head Series Trends
These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:
Thursday, September 14
(103) MINNESOTA at (104) PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 hosting Minnesota
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA
Sunday, September 17
(277) BALTIMORE at (278) CINCINNATI
BALTIMORE is on 4-1 ATS run at Cincinnati
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE
(271) CHICAGO at (272) TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 8-4 ATS hosting Chicago since '96
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY
(267) INDIANAPOLIS at (268) HOUSTON
UNDER the total is 7-0 in IND-HOU series at Houston since '17
System Match: PLAY UNDER
(275) KANSAS CITY at (276) JACKSONVILLE
UNDER the total is 5-1 in last 6 of KC-JAC h2h series
System Match: PLAY UNDER
(263) LA CHARGERS at (264) TENNESSEE
HOME TEAMS are on 5-0-1 ATS run in LAC-TEN head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY TENNESSEE
(273) LAS VEGAS at (274) BUFFALO
OVER the total is 10-2-1 in the last 13 of Raiders-Bills head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY OVER
(287) MIAMI at (288) NEW ENGLAND
MIAMI has won their last five ATS vs. New England
System Match: PLAY MIAMI
(279) NY GIANTS at (280) ARIZONA
ARIZONA has won their last four SU and ATS vs. NY Giants
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA
(283) NY JETS at (284) DALLAS
UNDERDOGS are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six of NYJ-DAL head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY NY JETS
(281) SAN FRANCISCO at (282) LA RAMS
SAN FRANCISCO is on a 7-0 ATS streak vs. LA Rams
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO
(269) SEATTLE at (270) DETROIT
SEATTLE is on a 4-0 ATS streak vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE
(285) WASHINGTON at (286) DENVER
HOME TEAMS have won their last four ATS in WAS-DEN head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY DENVER
(291) CLEVELAND at (292) PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 hosting Cleveland
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH
Monday, September 18
(289) NEW ORLEANS at (290) CAROLINA
The last five games of the NO-CAR rivalry went UNDER the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER