VSiN Analytics Report for Week 11
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 11. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Matchups
Strategies using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published in the 2023 NFL Betting Guide Part 2, Steve Makinen outlined 12 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until kickoff for best usage.
DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past 1-1/2 seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 61-81 ATS (42.9%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, HOUSTON, JACKSONVILLE, DETROIT, DALLAS, SAN FRANCISCO, BUFFALO, MINNESOTA, KANSAS CITY
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 112-132 ATS (45.9%). Although these bettors are over .500 for the 2023 season, I’m still leaving this system on, as I believe they will return to norms down the stretch. The NFL is the most public of all bet-able sports. If 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings like a particular side, I would still feel comfortable to fade ’em.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, HOUSTON, JACKSONVILLE, DETROIT, LA CHARGERS, DALLAS, SAN FRANCISCO, BUFFALO, SEATTLE, MINNESOTA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: In NFL divisional games of 2022 and 2023, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 52-84 ATS (38.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, PITTSBURGH, WASHINGTON, JACKSONVILLE, DETROIT, LA RAMS, BUFFALO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 55-78 ATS (41.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, CLEVELAND, WASHINGTON, JACKSONVILLE, DETROIT, SEATTLE, BUFFALO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority handle and the number of bets have backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 58-75 ATS (43.6%) and 56-76 ATS (42.4%) respectively. Both remain losing propositions and most often, these majorities match up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HANDLE - LA CHARGERS, DALLAS
# of BETS – LA CHARGERS, DALLAS, SEATTLE
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle and the number of bets were on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have produced adequate records, 33-34 ATS (49.3%) & 46-43 ATS (51.5%) respectively going back to September 2022. This matches somewhat with the logic I used to explain some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can at least maintain.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): HANDLE – CINCINNATI, PITTSBURGH, MINNESOTA, # of Bets - CINCINNATI, MINNESOTA, PHILADELPHIA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and the number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last 1-1/2 seasons, these majority groups are just 42-56 ATS (42.9%) and 42-56 ATS (42.9%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HANDLE – CINCINNATI, MINNESOTA, KANSAS CITY # of BETS – CINCINNATI, MINNESOTA, PHILADELPHIA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 38-29 ATS (60.3%). This is another situation where going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, LA RAMS, KANSAS CITY
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total last year was 44.2. This season, it’s dropped a bit. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have rebounded incredibly in 2023 after, going 28-53 ATS last season. They are 22-6 ATS (78.6%) this year! We’ll see if that continues to hold the rest of the way.
System Matches: MIAMI, HOUSTON, DETROIT
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the HANDLE has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has been quite sharp, 45-29 ATS (60.8%). This number for a “supermajority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets has also produced a 35-22 (61.4%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): HANDLE – UNDER LVR-MIA, UNDER PIT-CLE, UNDER NYJ-BUF, UNDER SEA-LAR, UNDER MIN-DEN # of BETS – UNDER PIT-CLE, UNDER NYJ-BUF, UNDER SEA-LAR, UNDER MIN-DEN
DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #10, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group has performed miserably in 2022 & 2023 with a record of 55-93 (37.2%). This has been a long-standing belief to me, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same supermajority percentage produced a slightly improved 59-77 (43.4%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): HANDLE – UNDER ARI-HOU, UNDER TEN-JAC, UNDER DAL-CAR # of BETS – UNDER LVR-MIA, UNDER DAL-CAR, UNDER TB-SF
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 19-46 (29.2%) over the past 1-1/2 seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of those behind the counter being smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UNDER TEN-JAC
NFL Rookie/Re-Trend Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2023 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Jonathan Gannon (Arizona), DeMeco Ryans (Houston), Shane Steichen (Indianapolis), as well as re-tread coaches Sean Payton (Denver) and Frank Reich (Carolina).
Rookie Coach Systems
Rookie head coaches have shown a tendency to start and finish their first season most successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in games #5-#12, they’ve gone 166-186-9 ATS (47.2%). Think of these trends when you see the schedules of the six rookie head coaches in 2023 released shortly.
System Matches: CONFLICT b/c Arizona plays at Houston this week
Among the key challenges new head coaches face is keeping teams grounded after wins as they’ve gone 140-154-10 ATS (47.6%) in that situation.
System Matches: CONFLICT b/c Arizona plays at Houston this week
Re-Tread Coach Systems
Like the rookie head coaches, re-tread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. In fact, their record in Home games – 81-120-1 ATS (40.3%).
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA, FADE DENVER
Re-tread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites. Since 2013, they’ve gone 88-66 SU but just 49-92-13 ATS, for 34.8%!
System Match: FADE DENVER
Digging deeper into the two trends described just above, as home favorites, re-tread coaches have gone just 56-41 SU and 29-62-6 ATS (31.9%) in their first seasons over the last decade.
System Match: FADE DENVER
There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2013, when coming off a loss, the record has been just 96-133-9 ATS (41.9%).
System Match: FADE CAROLINA
NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters out of the gate in 2023 include Bryce Young (Carolina), CJ Stroud (Houston), and Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis), although others could join them down the road.
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
- Earlier, I indicated winning percentages of 40.9% straight up and 50.4% ATS for rookie quarterbacks since 2004. The results of late are far worse. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are just 151-282-2 SU (34.9%) and 198-234-3 ATS (45.8%).
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON, FADE CAROLINA
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Rookie quarterbacks have experienced major late-season woes
- For as much as rookie QBs have struggled early in recent years, over the long haul, or since 2008, the part of the season in which they have struggled worst is in weeks 10-15, as they are just 86-134 SU and 91-121-8 ATS (42.9%) in that time span.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON, FADE CAROLINA, FADE TENNESSEE, FADE LAS VEGAS, FADE NY GIANTS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
- The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 105-110-1 ATS (48.8%) in home games but just 97-122 ATS (44.3%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-18, they are just 28-83 SU and 44-65-2 ATS (40.4%).
System Matches: FADE LAS VEGAS, FADE TENNESSEE, FADE NY GIANTS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
- Since 2004, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 7-points or more have won just 26 games, going 26-164 SU and 76-105-9 ATS (42%).
System Matches: FADE NY GIANTS, FADE LAS VEGAS, FADE CAROLINA
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been tough for rookie starting quarterbacks
- The breakdown of success level against Division, Conference, and Nonconference opponents has been definitive for rookie starting quarterbacks. Since the start of the 2013 season, versus non-divisional conference and nonconference opponents, they are about 49% ATS. However, against divisional foes, they are just 65-88-1 ATS (42.5%). As divisional dogs of 5 points or more, rookie QBs are just 7-62 SU & 25-43-1 ATS (36.8%) in that span.
System Matches: FADE TENNESSEE, FADE NY GIANTS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QB’s
- In their last 102 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 37-82-1 SU and 50-69-1 ATS (42%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA, FADE TENNESSEE, FADE NY GIANTS
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
DON’T DISMISS TEAMS OFF DREADFUL OFFENSIVE OUTINGS
NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 18-30 SU but 33-15 ATS (68.8%) over the last decade-plus.
System Match: PLAY LA RAMS (+1 vs Seattle)
TNF, SNF, and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 29-27 SU and 35-19-2 ATS (64.8%) in the last 56.
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI
- There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 20-18 SU but 10-26-2 ATS (27.8%). However, home-field advantage has picked up slightly in the second half of the season in recent years, with Week 9-17 home teams going 16-17 SU and 16-19 ATS (45.7%) in that same time span. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 32-23 SU and 32-21-2 ATS (60.4%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE
- A long-running trend of Thursday night home-field advantage being crucial in divisional games has turned lately, with these hosts going 13-13 SU but 8-18 ATS (30.8%) since the start of the 2019 season. Prior to that, divisional hosts were on an amazing 17-2-1 ATS run.
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE ATS
- There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 3+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 15-15 SU & 22-7-1 ATS (75.9%) record.
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI ATS
- Unfortunately, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last four seasons, going 22-28 SU and 17-32-1 ATS (34.7%).
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE
UNDER the total TNF Team Trends
Cincinnati is 6-2-1 Under the total since 2014
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have gone the complete opposite direction, showing a record of 12-11 SU and 8-15 ATS (34.8%) in their last 23 after going 40-18-2 ATS prior.
System Match: FADE DENVER ATS
- In SNF games pitting nonconference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are just 22-20 SU & 16-24-2 ATS (40%) in the last 42. Under the total is also 22-12 (64.7%) in the L34.
System Match: FADE DENVER ATS, also PLAY UNDER the total
- Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 1-14 SU and 11-14-1 ATS (44%) in their last 26, but those coming off a win are on a current 16-3 SU and 13-6 ATS (68.4%) surge.
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS
Bad SNF Team Trends
Denver 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS skid
System Match: FADE DENVER
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- In MNF games pitting nonconference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 22-20 SU but 11-29-2 ATS (27.5%) in the L42.
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY ATS
- Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 29-23 SU but just 18-32-2 ATS (36%) in the last 52 MNF games not matching teams with identical records/
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Good MNF Team Trends
Kansas City 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS since 2012
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY
Under the total MNF Team Trends
Philadelphia 9-3-1 under in the last 13
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Baltimore 20-10 SU and 18-11-1 ATS in the last 30
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE
Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF and MNF) Team Trends
Denver 6-19 SU and 8-15-2 ATS in the last 25
System Match: FADE DENVER
Under the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF and MNF) Team Trends
Denver 16-2 Under since 2017
Minnesota 19-10 Under primetime record since 2015
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors
The following betting systems were part of an article released in Week 8 of the NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.
NFL Streaks Betting System #8: NFL teams that have lost their last five games ATS but were playing against a team whom they have at least an equal won-lost record with have gone 18-13 SU and 20-11 ATS (64.5%) in their L31 tries.
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-7 vs NY Jets)
Pre-Bye-Ween Systems and Trends
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason.
NO PRE-BYE WEEK GAMES THIS WEEK
Post-Bye-Week Systems and Trends
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason.
Post-bye-week system #2:
Play against home teams coming out of their bye week against non-conference opponents. (Record: 20-17 SU and 23-11-1 ATS since 2015, 67.6%, +10.89 Units, 32% R.O.I., Grade 72)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (+2.5 at Kansas City)
Post-bye week system #3:
Play against home underdogs coming out of their bye week. (Record: 38-15 SU and 32-20-1 ATS since 1999, 61.5%, +9.89 Units, 19% R.O.I., Grade 62)
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-1 at LA Rams)
Post-bye week system #5:
Play against double-digit favorites coming off their bye week. (Record: 17-7-1 ATS since 2014, 70.8%, +9.3 Units, 37.2% R.O.I., Grade 62)
System Match: PLAY LAS VEGAS (+12.5 at Miami)
** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.
KANSAS CITY Post-Bye Week Game: MON 11/20 PHILADELPHIA
- Head Coach Andy Reid’s teams are 22-3 SU and 16-9 ATS in post-bye-week games
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY
- The Chiefs are 9-3-1 Under the total in their last 13 post-bye-week games
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
LA RAMS Post-Bye Week Game: 11/19 SEATTLE
- The Rams are on an 8-4 SU and 8-3-1 ATS run in their last 12 post-bye-week games at home
System Match: PLAY LA RAMS
- The Rams are on a 5-2 ATS run in post-bye-week games vs. NFC West rivals
System Match: PLAY LA RAMS
MIAMI Post-Bye Week Game: 11/19 LAS VEGAS
- Miami is currently on a 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS surge in post-bye-week games
System Match: PLAY MIAMI
- The Dolphins are 5-1 Under the total in their last six post-bye week games
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
PHILADELPHIA Post-Bye Week Game: MON 11/20 at Kansas City
- Philadelphia is 7-2 Under the total in its last nine post-bye week road games
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
- Philadelphia is 6-2 Under the total in the last eight post-bye-week games vs. AFC foes
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
Handicapping NFL Rematch Games
The following trends and betting systems come from same-season rematch data over the last 12 seasons.
Best NFL rematch teams lately
- Cincinnati: 13-11 SU and 18-5 ATS in the last 23 rematch opportunities
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI ATS (+4 at Baltimore)
Worst NFL rematch teams lately
- Cleveland: lengthy 8-25-1 ATS rematch skid in the last 34
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND ATS (-4 vs Pittsburgh)
- NY Jets: 4-18 SU and 7-14-1 ATS skid
System Match: FADE NY JETS (+7 at Buffalo)
Best NFL HOME rematch teams lately
- Buffalo: 14-4 SU and 11-7 ATS in the last 18 home rematches, scoring 30.1 PPG
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-7 vs NY Jets)
Worst NFL HOME rematch teams lately
- Baltimore: 1-8 ATS in the last nine rematch home games
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE ATS (-4 vs Cincinnati)
- Cleveland: Lost 12 of their last 13 home rematch games ATS! (5-8 SU)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI ATS (-4 vs Pittsburgh)
- Washington: 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in the last 10 at home
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON ATS (-10 vs NY Giants)
Best NFL ROAD rematch teams lately
- Cincinnati: Won nine of the last 10 road rematches ATS
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI ATS (+4 at Baltimore)
Worst NFL REVENGE teams lately
- Cleveland: 4-10 SU and 3-10-1 ATS in the last 14 revenge games
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND ATS (-4 vs Pittsburgh)
Rematch Betting Systems
Teams that lost the prior game to an opponent but now have a record 20% or better outright have gone 40-12 SU and 35-17 ATS (67.3%) in the rematch contest
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (-10 vs NY Giants), PLAY SEATTLE (-1 at LA Rams)
This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
This week’s Top 4 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -4 (+2.4), 3(tie). DENVER -2 (+0.6) and BUFFALO -7 (+0.6), 5. DETROIT -9 (+0.5)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NY GIANTS +9.5 (+1.9), 2. LAS VEGAS +12 (+1.5), 3. GREEN BAY +3 (+1.4), 4. TAMPA BAY +11.5 (+0.5), 5. LA RAMS +1 (+0.4)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +2 (+3.8), 2. LA RAMS +1 (+2.6), 3. NY JETS +7 (+2.5), 4. TENNESSEE +6.5 (+2.0), 5. TAMPA BAY +11.5 (+1.7)
This week’s Top 4 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BALTIMORE -4 (+2.6), 2. DETROIT -9 (+1.8), 3. DALLAS -10.5 (+1.5), 4. KANSAS CITY -3 (+0.8)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-DEN OVER 43.5 (+2.0), 2. NYG-WAS OVER 37.5 (+1.9), 3. PIT-CLE OVER 33.5 (+1.8), 4. LVR-MIA OVER 46.5 (+0.8), 5. LAC-GB OVER 44.5 (+0.6)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CIN-BAL UNDER 46 (-4.5), 2. DAL-CAR UNDER 42.5 (-2.5), 3. SEA-LAR UNDER 46 (-2.1), 4. PHI-KC UNDER 45.5 (-1.4), 5. TB-SF UNDER 41.5 (-0.7)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NY GIANTS +9.5 (+5.4), 2(tie). CINCINNATI +4 (+1.6) and TAMPA BAY +11.5 (+1.6), 4. LAS VEGAS +12 (+1.2), 5. CAROLINA +10.5 (+1.1)
This week’s Top 4 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUFFALO -7 (+2.9), 2. DETROIT -9 (+0.8), 3. DENVER -2 (+0.6), 4. LA CHARGERS -3 (+0.4)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PIT-CLE OVER 33.5 (+1.8), 2. NYG-WAS OVER 37.5 (+1.4), 3(tie). DAL-CAR OVER 42.5 (+1.2) and MIN-DEN OVER 43.5 (+1.2), 5. TB-SF OVER 41.5 (+0.8)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SEA-LAR UNDER 46 (-3.0), 2. CHI-DET UNDER 47.5 (-1.5), 3. NYJ-BUF UNDER 40 (-1.3), 4. CIN-BAL UNDER 46 (-1.0), 5. TEN-JAX UNDER 39.5 (-0.5)
Top NFL Starting Quarterback Betting Trends
Here are top betting trends detailing various quarterback performance records in situations as a starter:
* Jared Goff (DET) is 18-20 SU but 27-11 ATS (71.1%) with current head coach Dan Campbell. The average line was +3.5, Team average PF: 23.1
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS (9.5 vs Chicago)
* Joe Burrow (CIN) is 8-8-1 SU and 14-3 ATS (82.4%) as an underdog of 7 points or less. The average line was +4.3, Team average PF: 24.5
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI ATS (+4 at Baltimore)
* Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) is 17-4 SU and 16-5 ATS (76.2%) in home games. The average line was -2.8, Team average PF: 25
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-12.5 vs Las Vegas)
* Justin Fields (CHI) is 4-21 SU and 6-18-1 ATS (25%) in Sunday games. The average line was +4.8, Team average PF: 18.5
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (+9.5 at Detroit)
Top NFL Team Situational Trends
These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
* ARIZONA is 22-18 ATS (55%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* ARIZONA is 18-13 ATS (58.1%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA (+4 at Houston)
* BALTIMORE is 42-54 ATS (43.8%) as a favorite since 2015
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-4 vs Cincinnati)
* CAROLINA is 12-23 ATS (34.3%) at home since 2019
* CAROLINA is 16-29 ATS (35.6%) in non-divisional conference games since 2018
System Match: FADE CAROLINA (+10.5 vs Dallas)
* CHICAGO is 6-20 ATS (23.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
* CHICAGO is 22-40 ATS (35.5%) in road/neutral games since 2016
* CHICAGO is 19-35 ATS (35.2%) as an underdog since 2019
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (+9.5 at Detroit)
* CINCINNATI is 48-26 ATS (64.9%) in road/neutral games since 2015
* CINCINNATI is 21-10 ATS (67.7%) as an underdog since 2020
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (+4 at Baltimore)
* CLEVELAND is 27-39 ATS (40.9%) at home since 2015
* CLEVELAND is 18-34 ATS (34.6%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
* CLEVELAND is 15-28 ATS (34.9%) as a favorite since 2017
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-4 vs Pittsburgh)
* DALLAS is 26-16 ATS (61.9%) in non-divisional conference games since 2019
* DALLAS is 15-9 ATS (62.5%) in road/neutral games since 2021
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-10.5 at Carolina)
* DENVER is 14-31 ATS (31.1%) as a favorite since 2017
* DENVER is 87-53 Under the total (62.1%) since 2015
System Match: FADE DENVER (-2 vs Minnesota), also PLAY UNDER in MIN-DEN (o/u at 43.5)
* DETROIT is 16-4 ATS (80%) at home since 2021
* DETROIT is 17-8 ATS (68%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
* DETROIT is 30-12 ATS (71.4%) overall since 2021
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-9.5 vs Chicago)
* GREEN BAY is 19-11 ATS (63.3%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* GREEN BAY is 25-15 ATS (62.5%) at home since 2019
* GREEN BAY is 16-9 ATS (64%) as an underdog since 2019
System Match:
* JACKSONVILLE is 22-34 ATS (39.3%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 15-23 ATS (39.5%) as a favorite since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 27-17 Under the total (61.4%) since 2021
System Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (-6.5 vs Tennessee), also PLAY UNDER in TEN-JAX (o/u at 39.5)
* KANSAS CITY is 10-3 ATS (76.9%) vs. nonconference foes since 2021
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-2.5 vs Philadelphia)
* LA RAMS are 20-11 ATS (64.5%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* LA RAMS are 39-25 Under the total (60.9%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY LA RAMS (+1 vs Seattle), also PLAY UNDER in SEA-LAR (o/u at 46)
* LAS VEGAS is 29-45 ATS (39.2%) in road/neutral games since 2015
System Match: FADE LAS VEGAS (+12.5 at Miami)
* MIAMI is 54-24 ATS (69.2%) at home since 2014
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-12.5 vs Las Vegas)
* MINNESOTA is 17-24 ATS (41.5%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* MINNESOTA is 28-16 ATS (63.6%) vs. nonconference foes since 2014
* MINNESOTA is 46-32 Over the total (59%) since 2019
System Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of MINNESOTA (+2 at Denver), also PLAY OVER in MIN-DEN (o/u at 43.5)
* NY GIANTS are 41-18 Under the total (69.5%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NYG-WAS (o/u at 37.5)
* NY JETS are 16-28 ATS (36.4%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016
* NY JETS are 17-36 ATS (32.1%) in road/neutral games since 2017
System Match: FADE NY JETS (+7 at Buffalo)
* PHILADELPHIA is 16-24 ATS (40%) in road/neutral games since 2019
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (+2.5 at Kansas City)
* PITTSBURGH is 88-57 Under the total (60.7%) since 2015
* PITTSBURGH is 28-14 ATS (66.7%) as an underdog since 2018
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+4 at Cleveland),
* SAN FRANCISCO is 32-20 ATS (61.5%) when coming off SU win since 2019
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-11.5 vs Tampa Bay)
* SEATTLE is 35-47 ATS (42.7%) when coming off SU win since 2015
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (-1 at LA Rams)
* TENNESSEE is 22-15 ATS (59.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
System Match: PLAY TENNESSEE (+6.5 at Jacksonville)
* WASHINGTON is 15-26 ATS (36.6%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 13-24 ATS (35.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
* WASHINGTON is 36-23 Under the total (61%) since 2020
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-10 vs NY Giants), also PLAY UNDER in NYG-WAS (o/u at 37.5)
Top NFL Head-to-Head Series Trends
These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(311) CINCINNATI at (312) BALTIMORE
* CINCINNATI is on a 7-2 ATS run at Baltimore
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI ATS
(453) ARIZONA at (454) HOUSTON
* HOME TEAMS are 4-1 ATS in the last five of the ARI-HOU series
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS
(461) CHICAGO at (462) DETROIT
* DETROIT is 9-4 ATS hosting Chicago since 2010
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS
(465) DALLAS at (466) CAROLINA
* FAVORITES are on a 5-0 ATS streak in the DAL-CAR series
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS
(455) LA CHARGERS at (456) GREEN BAY
* CHARGERS have won the last two ATS vs. Green Bay after six straight losses
System Match: PLAY LA CHARGERS ATS
(463) LAS VEGAS at (464) MIAMI
* The last eight games of the LVR-MIA series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(473) MINNESOTA at (474) DENVER
* Underdogs are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight of the MIN-DEN series
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS
(457) NY GIANTS at (458) WASHINGTON
* NY GIANTS are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the last five trips to Washington
System Match: PLAY NY GIANTS ATS
(471) NY JETS at (472) BUFFALO
* Under the total is 10-5 in the NYJ-BUF series at Buffalo since 2007
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(451) PITTSBURGH at (452) CLEVELAND
* Under the total is 7-3 in the last 10 of the PIT-CLE series at Cleveland
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(469) SEATTLE at (470) LA RAMS
* LA RAMS have won the last four ATS hosting Seattle
System Match: PLAY LA RAMS ATS
(467) TAMPA BAY at (468) SAN FRANCISCO
* SAN FRANCISCO is 6-2 ATS in the last eight hosting Tampa Bay
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO ATS
(459) TENNESSEE at (460) JACKSONVILLE
* TENNESSEE is 5-1 ATS in the last six at Jacksonville
System Match: PLAY TENNESSEE ATS
(475) PHILADELPHIA at (476) KANSAS CITY
* KANSAS CITY has won the last four ATS vs. Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY ATS