Monday was mostly a day to catch up on some sleep after the crazy Sunday NFL action and tracking the opening line movement for Super Bowl LVII.
We also caught up on some chores and errands in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office, including returning to our regular Monday family chauffeur duties of picking up my son Maddux after school and taking him to Las Vegas Youth Orchestra practice (and our weekly father-son trip to In N Out Burger for an early dinner).
After following the first half of my Baylor +3.5 Best Bet (and I got +4 on Monday afternoon) on my phone, I arrived home to watch the second half. Texas was in control and covering most of the game, so I can’t call Baylor’s 76-71 loss, though it was still disappointing as they pulled within 1 point at 72-71 with 51 seconds to play and couldn’t hold onto the cover. Baylor gave up a basket, missed a wild 3-point attempt, Texas hit two free throws and then another 3-point attempt followed by the Bears allowing Texas to dribble out the rest of the clock.
I was left to wonder if it was a smart bet that just happened to lose or if I had forced a play because I felt pressure to post a Best Bet since I’ve had so much success in these daily columns the last few months.
I mean, I nearly passed because nothing really jumped out at me when posting my column late Sunday/early Monday morning. I was at least happy that I passed in the NBA after stating that the card looks chalky (see recaps below as faves went 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS). If being honest, while I felt Baylor was indeed the top play on Monday’s card, it was more of a coin-flip in my mind and I wouldn’t have used it as a “Best Bet” if not for the slim pickings on the day.
Let’s get to our daily recaps of all of Monday’s betting action and I do have a Best Bet for Tuesday, plus an update on my early Super Bowl Best Bet.
NBA: Faves went 7-1 SU, but just 5-3 ATS as the Pistons (+10.5 at Mavericks) and Hawks (+5.5 at Blazers) covered in SU losses. The lone upset was by the Magic (+10 at 76ers). Home/road teams split 4-4 SU, but road teams led 6-2 ATS. Unders went 5-2-1 with push in Raptors-Suns (220) game.
More NBA: On the season, faves lead 483-269 SU with 11 games closing pick-'em, but dogs still lead 380-353-19 ATS (51.8%). Home teams lead 457-306 SU and 392-354-18 ATS (52.5%). In totals wagering, Overs still lead 388-362-13 (51.7%).
CBB: Texas Tech beat No. 13 Iowa State 80-77 in OT, but it wasn't an upset as the Red Raiders were 2.5-point home favorites (and ended up covering in OT). No. 10 Texas (-4) held off No. 11 Baylor 76-71 and covered. No. 6 Virginia (-5) beat Syracuse 67-62 and pushed.
NHL: Faves went 1-0 Monday as the Jets (-230) rallied to beat Blues 4-2. The game pushed on the betting total of 6 goals. On the season, faves lead 461-296 with 20 games closing pick-'em. Home teams lead 405-359 with 4 neutral-site games. Unders still hold the slimmest of leads at 365-364-34.
Tuesday NBA Best Bet
Bulls +3 vs. Clippers: This is actually a mini anti-swagger play against the Clippers as they had their 5-game winning streak snapped Sunday in Cleveland. They now travel to Chicago and laying 3 points against a Bulls team that is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games. I was hoping for a little higher spread, though BetMGM was dealing Bulls +3.5 overnight so hopefully it goes a little higher.
Early Super Bowl Best Bet
Chiefs +8.5/Over 43.5 vs. Eagles: We respect everything the Eagles have down, but we’re siding with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid with two weeks to prepare (even though they lost Super Bowl LV two years ago with two weeks to prepare). We’ll be going into more detail with the way we expect the game to play out, including tons of prop bets, in our columns over the next 13 days.
Tuesday update: The line has dipped to Eagles -2, but you can still tease the Chiefs up to +8. It’s still acceptable to tease +1.5 up to +7.5, but obviously get the best number you can.