Tuley: Tuesday Best Bets, Contest Corner, early NFL playoff picks

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

January 10, 2023 06:56 AM
Luka_Doncic_Mavericks

Tuesday Best Bets, Monday recaps

Monday was mostly a day of catching up on some sleep in the Tuley’s Take home bedroom after a long, exciting weekend. I also had to play chauffeur for my son Maddux’s Las Vegas Youth Orchestra practice as we led up to the CFB National Championship Game.

And, boy, was that anticlimactic as we lost our Best Bet on TCU +13.5 as Georgia de-horned the Frogs early in a 65-7 rout.

That dropped our record to 43-28-2 ATS (60.6%) with our daily top play the last 73 days since late October as well as 33-20 ATS (62.2%) since the start of football season and 20-11 ATS (64.5%) since the start of November with our advance plays on “The Greg Peterson Experience.” I’m proud of all three of those records with our “dog-or-pass” approach, but I’m trying to keep the first one over 60% heading into the NFL playoffs and need to go 2-0 ATS with the Dolphins +11 and Buccaneers +3 this upcoming weekend to get the last one back to 66.7%.

Enough looking back, except let’s get to the recaps of the rest of Monday’s action and we have a Contest Corner update as we tie up a few loose ends from the football contest season (we’re still confirming final results from the Westgate and Golden Nugget contests). Then, we’ll turn to the hardwood and ice for Tuesday’s Best Bets as well as those early NFL plays in advance of our writeups on all six wild-card games in Wednesday morning’s column.

Monday Recaps

CBB: No. 1 Georgia dominated No. 3 TCU from start to finish in 65-7 rout in CFB Playoff National Championship Game. The ViewFromVegas is the Bulldogs easily covered after closing as 13.5-point favorites. The game went Over betting total of 61.5 points as Georgia exceeded it by itself.

NBA: Faves went 4-2 SU, but dogs led 4-1-1 ATS with push in Nuggets (-13) 122-109 win vs. Lakers. The upsets were by the Pelicans (+1.5 in 132-112 win at Wizards) and Bucks (+1 in 111-107 win at Knicks). The Spurs (+11 at Grizzlies) and Bulls (+9 at Celtics) covered in SU losses. Home teams went 4-2 SU but road teams led 4-1-1 ATS. Unders led 4-2. 

More NBA: On the season, favorites improved to 383-218 SU with 9 games closing pick-'em while underdogs improved to 307-276-18 ATS (52.7%). Home teams lead 370-240 SU and 315-278-17 ATS (53.1%). In totals wagering, Overs dipped to 314-289-7 (52.1%).

NHL: Dogs went 2-1 Monday with Kings-Oilers closing pick-'em. Upsets were by the Flyers (+192 in 4-0 win at Sabres) and Predators (+100 in 3-0 win at Senators). Kraken (-205) won 4-0 at Canadiens). Road teams went 3-1. Unders led 3-1. On the season, faves lead 366-237 w/ 19 PKs, home teams lead 318-292 w/ 4 neutral-site games; Unders lead 298-289-27.

Contest Corner

Our 3 stories from Sunday on how the Circa Sports Million and Circa Survivor finished can be found at VSiN.com:

Lions won $1 million for 4 Detroit fans in Circa Sports Million

Wrapup of Circa Survivor with 2 winners collecting more than $3 million each

THE ENEMY WITHIN’s $2 million Bad Beat in Circa Survivor

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams swept 5-0 in NFL Week 18 to finish 47-38-5 (55.3%) with Bengals +1 graded a push in Week 17. The wins were on the Dolphins +1 vs. Jets (No. 1 picks finished 13-5, 72.2%), Steelers -2.5 vs. Browns, Rams +6 at Seahawks, Titans +6 at Jaguars and Lions +5.5 at Packers.

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams swept 5-0 in NFL Week 18 to finish 50-38-1 (56.8%) with Bengals +1 graded no-action in Week 17. The wins were on the Dolphins +1 vs. Jets (No. 1 picks finished 8-10, 44.4%), Lions +5.5 at Packers, Rams +6.5 at Seahawks, Steelers -2.5 vs. Browns and Titans +6 at Jaguars.

Congrats to our VSiN colleague Wes Reynolds (@WesReynolds1) for earning $21,300 for his victory in the 2022-23 Pro Football Season Wins Challenge at the Westgate SuperBook. The pushes were on the Ravens (10) and Dolphins (9). Bills and Bengals were graded no-action for not playing 17 games.

Tuesday NBA Best Bet

Mavericks +3.5 at Clippers: The pickings are a little slim with the way we play in the mid-week cards without football, but we’ll go with Luka Doncic and the Mavs against the Clippers, who are just .500 at 21-21 and on a 6-game losing streak. This is one of those “the wrong team is favored games,” which can be a red flag but we can’t resist taking the better team with more than a 3-pointer and the hook.

Tuesday NHL Best Bet

Penguins -1.5 +130 vs. Canucks: We almost made this our top play of the day (and we did make the mistake last week when we felt more comfortable with a basketball play over hockey and lost with the Mavericks vs. the Celtics while winning with the Predators +200), so we’re also playing this. The Penguins are a swagger play as they just snapped a 6-game losing streak on Saturday. Some readers will point out I’m betting the chalk, but we’re turning them into a dog by going with the puck line and asking Sidney Crosby and Co. to win by multiple goals.

Early NFL playoff Best Bets

Dolphins +11 at Bills: We’re not sure who will be at QB for Miami, but the Bills have let teams stick around all season and we’ve had a lot of success fading them. We also can’t pass up a double-digit dog in the playoffs. 

Buccaneers +3 vs. Cowboys: Give me the home underdog in the wild-card weekend finale on Monday Night Football. More on this pick during the week, but I believe the time to grab the +3 is now.

 

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Live Bet Saturday: Don't rush to the college basketball futures market, unless you're taking some long shots that you believe will shorten greatly. For the top teams, you can often get the same number or better in March when you know their draw for the tournament. View more tips.

The Greg Peterson Experience: Focus on a single team or smaller conference, as a way into college basketball handicapping. View more tips.

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Dave Tuley: A 6-pt teaser - Chiefs +8.5 with Over 43.5. View more picks

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