Tuley: Tuesday Best Bet, Contest Corner, NFL Week 13 picks

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

November 29, 2022 04:26 AM
Kraken_celebrate

Monday was a day full of recovering from a non-stop holiday weekend and handicapping the rest of next weekend’s NFL Week 13 card and the college football conference championship games.

And of course, Monday’s always center around MNF. We do a weekly recap for VSiN.com, so here’s my Monday Night Football recap as we give the betting perspective of the Steelers’ 24-17 upset of the Colts and wrap up our Week 13 betting stats and update our season-long stats (which can also be found below).

As for my personal bets, we won our Best Bet on our posted 2-team, 6-point teaser on the Steelers +8.5/Over 33 (along with other teasers from Sunday’s games for those who followed us on those earlier in the week with the Panthers +8.5, Titans +7.5 and Eagles -0.5).

Monday’s win improved our daily Best Bets to 19-9 ATS (67.9%) the first 28 days of November, including 15-6 ATS (71.4%) the last 21 days.

As for BetsGiving, I was DQ’d because my prop bet on “Colts score 1st/Win Game” was ruled by the Betsgiving commissioner to be a parlay and not a prop (even though it was on the DraftKings app on the props list). Anyway, as I Tweeted earlier in the evening, I was more concerned with winning my teasers with the Steelers for me and my faithful followers, so I can live with the result (and the prop lost anyway).

Let’s get to the recaps of the rest of Monday’s actual betting action, then look for a Best Bet on Tuesday, plus update our NFL Week 13 plays that we gave out on our weekly appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” at 12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday nights and which also appear in these daily columns along with the VSiN daily newsletter.

Sunday’s Recaps

NFL: Steelers (2.5-point road dog) upset Colts 24-17 on MNF to wrap up NFL Week 12 (went Over total of 39.5 points). Faves went 10-4 SU and 7-7 ATS in Week 12 with 2 pick-’ems (DEN-CAR & CIN-TEN). Home teams dominated at 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS. Over/Unders split 8-8 while primetime Overs swept 3-0 in the Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games this weekend.

More NFL: On the season, faves lead 109-66-1 SU with 4 PKs, but dogs improved to 95-75-6 ATS (55.9%). Home teams dipped to 96-77-1 SU with 6 neutral-site games but dipped to 86-82-6 ATS (51.2%). Unders lead 100-78-2 (56.2%) while primetime Unders dipped to 19-17-1 (52.8%) after starting 13-6 through the first 6 weeks of the season.

NBA: Faves went 7-2 SU on Monday but only 5-4 ATS with Suns-Kings closing pick-'em. The upsets were by the Bulls (+2 at Jazz) and Pacers (+3.5 at Lakers). The Magic (+12 at Nets) and Thunder (+5.5 at Pelicans) covered in SU losses. Home teams went 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS. Unders 6-4.

More NBA: On the season, faves lead 199-103 SU with 6 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 152-139-11 ATS (52.2%). Home teams lead 190-118 SU and 154-143-11 ATS (51.9%). Overs' slim lead dipped to 152-151-5 (50.2%) overall.

NHL: Faves went 4-1 Monday with Panthers-Oilers closing pick'em. The lone upset was by the Devils (small -105 road dog in 5-3 win at Rangers). Roads teams led 5-1. Overs went 3-2-1 with push in TOR-DET (6). On the season, faves lead 200-141 with 9 PKs. Home teams' lead was cut to 180-166 with 4 neutral-site games. Overs took lead at 170-169-11.

Contest Corner

Circa Sports Million is led again by TAIL PARTY-2, who regained the top spot by going 2-2-1 in NFL Week 12 to stand at 41-16-3 (71.9%) as former co-leader Enut34-1 went 2-3 to drop into sole possession of 2nd place at 41-17-2 (70.7%). A lot of contestants struggled as the Top 5 consensus plays in Circa Sports Million went 2-3.

ICYMI: Circa Survivor still has 71 live entries as the Dolphins, Jets, 49ers, Commanders and Chiefs all won straight-up on Sunday to allow all 71 to advance out of the Thanksgiving/Week 12 gauntlet. Onto NFL Week 13 with $6.133 million on the line in the record-setting prize pool. 

SuperContest has new co-leaders as JHAAS07 (41-6-3) and SA247LLC (42-17-1) both have 42.5 points (wins count for 1 point while pushes are worth 0.5) with last week's leader HEINEKEN 21 (41-17-2) going 2-3 to drop into sole possession of 3rd place, half a point back. In SuperContest Gold, JORD20 (42-16-2, 72.4%) has a 3.5-point lead over their nearest competitor in the winner-take-all $5,000 version of the SuperContest.

Tuesday’s Best Bet

Kraken +105 at Kings: On a small Tuesday betting menu, this is my top play as the Kraken are a small dog despite being the hotter team on a 5-game winning streak while the Kings have lost 5 of 7. Overall, the Kraken average 3.5 goals per game while allowing 2.8 goals with the Kings averaging just 3.2 goals and allowing 3.5. And, again, the Kraken are in far better recent form.

NFL Week 13 early Best Bets

Broncos +8 at Ravens: We might have jumped the gun on this game as it’s up to 8.5 at Stations Casinos in Las Vegas (a good indicator that chalk bettors are going to bet this even higher, plus we’re seeing 78% of the bets and 76% of the money on the Ravens -8.5 at DraftKings on the VSiN Betting Splits Page, so you might want to wait to bet this if with me.

Colts +9.5 at Cowboys: We took this early in case it dropped if the Colts looked impressive on Monday Night Football. That didn’t happen as they lost 24-17 to the Steelers, but it doesn’t look like this line is moving at the books that reposted it after the game. We’ll update in our Wednesday column.

Saints +6 at Buccaneers: This is down to 4 and even 3.5 at a lot of books and is the reason why we’ve been trying to get our regular readers to listen to our weekly appearances on “The Greg Peterson Experience” or to bet these early plays in our Monday columns. Those plays are 25-12 ATS (67.6%) this season and 12-3 ATS (80%) in November, so I know those who have been following have been very happy.

back to news

help_desk_promo

PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO PICKS

Lou Finocchiaro: Kenneth Gainwell Anytime TD +380. View more picks.

Pauly Howard: Score Every Quarter (+600). View more picks.

PRO TIPS

Live Bet Sunday: The majority of the handle for the Super Bowl will come relatively late, ramping up a few days before the game. Expect this action to alter the money line prices if not the spread. View more tips.

The Lombardi Line: The Chiefs have FOUR rookie DBs with Trent McDuffie, Joshua Williams, Jaylen Watson, and Bryan Cook. If the Chiefs D focuses on pass rush and leaves the DBs to play man-to-man, the Eagles' pass catchers have the advantage. View more tips.

QUICK LINKS

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Close