Tuley: Thursday Best Bet, updated 'takes' on full NFL Week 13 schedule

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

December 1, 2022 04:51 AM
Kevin_Hayes

Wednesday was an interesting hump day as we had plenty of sports betting action even without any football as we did have World Cup futbol, NBA and college basketball, plus some hockey for good measure.

Unfortunately, I lost my Best Bet of the day on the Clippers +6.5 at the Jazz as they lost 125-112, but we can’t complain too much as we finished the month at 20-10 ATS (66.7%) with our daily Best Bets here in these columns, including 16-7 ATS (69.5%) the last 23 days.

I’d like to ask a favor of our regular reader: please vote for me Thursday in The 4th Annual @VSiNLive People’s Broadcast Excellence Golden Mic Awards (aka #TheMitchys2022) hosted by @beatpeatmoss, a popular parody account on Twitter and a huge fan of VSiN. I’m slated to be in the “Most Trusted Advisor” category and competition is expected to be stiff with all the popular hosts and guests that appear on our network. I’m at a disadvantage as I won’t be on the air Thursday like some of the other nominees, so that’s why I’m stumping for votes here and hope you’ll vote if you’ve enjoyed the advice shared here this season.

OK, let’s get back to our regularly scheduled column and recap Wednesday’s betting action and then look for a Best Bet on Thursday. I’m not making a bet on the Bills-Patriots game on Thursday Night Football – hey, my mantra is “dog-or-pass,” so we don’t force plays and believe passing on games is an important part of being a disciplined winning sports bettor.

And, then, as has become our custom here, we’ll rerun our Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on every game on the NFL Week 13 schedule. Even if we don’t have a Best Bet on a particular game, we give our “pool play” strategy, especially for those that are in contests where you do have to pick every game. We always love to hear from readers that we help win contests and pools during the course of the season.

Wednesday’s Recaps

NBA: Faves dominated at 11-2 SU and 10-2-1 ATS with the only upsets by the Timberwolves (+3 in 109-101 home win vs. Grizzlies) and Pelicans (+2.5 in 126-108 home win vs. Raptors). Home teams also dominated at 11-2 SU. 11-1-1 ATS. The only road team to cover on the night was the Hawks (-6.5 in 125-108 win at Magic). Overs led 8-5.

More NBA: On the season, faves improved to 212-106 SU with 6 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still hold a slim lead at 155-151-12 ATS (50.7%). Home teams also improved to 202-122 SU and 166-146-12 ATS (53.2%) while Overs improved their slim lead to 163-156-5 (51.1%) overall.

CBB: Notre Dame beat No. 20 Michigan State 70-52 in game that closed pick-'em in ACC/Big Ten Challenge. In other ACC/Big Ten games between ranked teams, No. 10 Indiana (-4.5) covered in 77-65 home win vs. No. 18 North Carolina and No. 17 Duke (-5) covered in 81-72 home win vs. No. 25 Ohio State.

NHL: Faves/dogs split 2-2 with minor upsets by the Sabres (+115 in 5-4 win at Red Wings) and Rangers (-105 in 3-1 win at Senators). Road teams went 3-1. Over/Unders split 2-2. On the season, faves lead 205-148 with 10 PKs, home teams lead 186-173 with 4 neutral-site games and Unders hold slim lead at 178-174-11.

Thursday’s Best Bet

Flyers +1.5 -130 vs. Lightning: This is one of our patented swagger plays as the Flyers broke a 10-game losing streak on Tuesday with a 3-1 win vs. the Islanders as Kevin Hayes scored two goals to give Philly its swagger back. The Flyers were a .500 team before their recent slump and coach John Tortorella will try to get them back the form they showed with a 3-0 start to the season that included a 3-2 road win vs. the Lightning in the only previous meeting this season between the two Eastern Conference teams. Tampa Bay is obviously a tough opponent, so that’s why we’re taking the Flyers on the puck line as our Best Bet, though we’ll also put some on the +190 money line to pull the outright upset.

 

Here's the rerun of our Wednesday "Tuley's Takes Today" column, including updates as odds change during the course of the week and we try to time our bets to get the best numbes possible:

Welcome to the weekly Wednesday version of my “Tuley’s Takes Today” column in which we go over the full NFL Week 13 schedule.

We love to hear from readers that we’ve helped have a successful football season. Last week was another winning one as we started with the Lions and Giants covering on Thanksgiving. Sunday was close to break even as my top plays went 1-3 ATS (losers on the Texans, Bears and Falcons, but a big win on the Raiders) but we swept all of our 2-team, 6-point teasers on the Panthers +8.5, Titans +7.5 and Eagles -1, plus had live teasers to the Steelers +8.5 on Monday Night Football.

Then, in Monday’s version of this column, we added Steelers +8.5/Over 33 for those who hadn’t jumped on the teaser gravy train yet.

That win improved our season-long record on our regular appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. Sunday nights) to 25-12 ATS (67.6%) and 12-3 ATS (80%) with our November plays, all of which have been NFL early lines for the next week.

Let’s get to the full NFL Week 13 schedule. Even if we don’t have a Best Bet on a game, we still offer our “pool play” strategy, especially for those in contests where you have to make a pick in every game.

Note: Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of early Wednesday morning unless otherwise noted. Check out VSIN.com's live NFL odds page for current odds.

Buffalo Bills (-4) at New England Patriots

This is the first meeting this season between these AFC East rivals. The Bills (8-3) are tied for the division lead with the Dolphins while the Patriots (6-5) are a game out of the last AFC wild-card spot. I’ve had a lot of success fading the Bills (just 4-6-1 ATS) this season, including in their two recent losses to the Jets and Vikings and the non-cover at the Lions on Thanksgiving, so it’s tempting to take the Patriots here as home underdogs. However, this line is too short for my liking. I love to have a play on the Thursday night game each week, but I have to pass in this case.

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bills in all of my rare SU and ATS contests that use TNF games). Thursday update: line down to 3.5 at nearly all books with South Point down to 3 just after midnight, so would definitely pass now.

New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

The Vikings (9-2) continue to roll on in their dream season, but this game means a lot more to the playoff-hopeful Jets (7-4) as the Vikes have opened up a five-game lead in the NFC North on the second-place Lions (yes, you read that right). The Jets have had a roller-coaster of a season as their No. 5 defense helped them win games in spite of starting QB Zach Wilson. Coach Robert Saleh made the move to Mike White (22-for-28, 315 passing yards, 3 TDs) in Week 12 and it paid off in a 31-10 rout of the Bears. It shouldn’t necessarily get harder for White against a Minnesota defense that is No. 31 in yards allowed per game. The Vikings have a good enough offense to overcome the Jets’ defensive strength with Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, etc. After suffering just their second loss of the season (a 40-3 no-show vs. the Cowboys in Week 11), they bounced back nicely in their 33-26 win vs. the Patriots on Thanksgiving night. Jets backers were able to grab +3.5 on Sunday, but the line has settled at  Vikings -3. We no longer like it at that number but would jump back in if it goes back to 3.5 (especially in contests).

Best Bet: Pass for now, waiting for Jets +3.5 (pool play: Jets 55/45 in ATS contests – higher at 3.5, flip to Vikings at 2.5 – but Vikings 60/40 in SU pools. Thursday update: line down to 3 with some books also charging added juice on +3, so doesn't look like we'll get that 3.5.

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-8.5)

We actually jumped the gun a little by giving this out as Broncos +8 on “The Greg Peterson Experience” and in these early week columns as it’s actually been bet up to 8.5 at most books as of this writing early Wednesday morning. But I’m willing to bet this again at the highest number we can get. Granted, the Broncos have been a dumpster fire on offense this season, ranking No. 25 in yards per game despite the off-season acquisition of Russell Wilson while the No. 5 defense has kept them in several games. But this is more of a bet against the Ravens as they’ve led by 9 points or more in every game so far this season; however, they blew their fourth fourth-quarter lead in Sunday’ 28-27 loss to the Jaguars and are just 5-6 ATS as they tend to let teams stick around. Besides, if looking for a common opponent, the Broncos beat the Jaguars 21-17 in Week 8, so we see no reason they can’t stay within a TD of the Ravens.

Best Bet: Broncos +8.5 (pool play: Broncos 67/33 in ATS contests, but Ravens still 75/25 in SU pools).

Cordarrelle_Patterson

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) at Atlanta Falcons

We’ve actually seen a change of favorites in this game as the Falcons were -1.5 on the advance line last week at the Westgate SuperBook and -1 when it reopened its Week 13 lines on Sunday afternoon. However, after the Steelers beat the Colts 24-17 on Monday Night Football, this has flipped to the Steelers -1. I’m going to wait to see if the line continues to move in that direction, at which time we’ll probably add it to our teaser portfolio, but I’m going to play the Falcons regardless as short home underdogs. Steelers (4-7) coach Mike Tomlin is trying to avoid his first losing season while the Falcons (5-7) have overachieved all season as they only trail the Buccaneers by half a game in the NFC South and are 7-5 ATS. The Steelers are No. 27 in yards per game while the Falcons are No, 28; however, Falcons have been far more efficient averaging 22.7 points per game compared to just 17.6 for the Steelers with RB/WR Cordarelle Patterson a threat to break off a huge run at any time (5.2 yards per carry) and with Marcus Mariota spreading the ball around to his receivers (or running himself). 

Best Bet: Falcons +1 or higher (pool play: Falcons 60/40 in all SU and ATS contests).

Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles (-5)

The Eagles continue to roll along with the NFL’s best record at 10-1, but after starting 3-1 ATS, they’ve been middle of the road at 3-3 ATS their last six games – and that includes a cover by half a point after closing as 6.5-point home favorites in a 40-33 win vs. the Packers on Sunday night. They’ve failed to cover in wins over the Lions, Cardinals, Texas and Colts in addition to their upset loss to the Commanders in Week 10, so I have no problem fading them against the Titans, who continue to get disrespected in the betting market despite overcoming an 0-2 start to stand at 7-4 SU and an even more impressive 8-3 ATS. And that includes losing 20-16 to the Bengals this past Sunday. Derrick Henry continues to set the tone as he’s second in the NFL with 1,048 rushing yards to make things easier for Ryan Tannehill’s play-action passes. I also trust Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel to have a scheme to contain Philly QB Jalen Hurts and keep the Titans in a one-score game if not pull the outright upset.

Best Bet: Titans +5 (pool play: Titans 67/33 in ATS contest, but still Eagles 60/40 in SU pools). Thursday update: Several books have moved to +5.5, so wait to see if it goes higher and, as always, shop for best line available.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) at Detroit Lions

The Lions have been very good to us the past two years (11-6 ATS last year, 7-4 ATS this season including four straight covers), so there’s a decent chance I’m going to bet them as short dogs here or use them in my contests. But I feel even stronger about them to kick off our teaser discussion for this week as we can use 6-point teasers to move them up through the key numbers of 3 and 7. Except for the two-game slump on either side of their Week 6 bye week in blowout losses to the Patriots and Cowboys, the Lions have not lost by more than 4 points in any other game and are perfect when teasing the spread by 6 points (9-2 overall on season). The only thing giving me pause is that the Jaguars have certainly improved this season under coach Doug Pederson and with Trevor Lawrence coming into his own, including rallying to beat the Ravens 28-27 on Sunday with many clutch throws. However, we’ll note that the only times the Jaguars have been put in the unfamiliar favorite’s role this season was when they were upset by the Texans 13-6 in Week 5 as 7-point home chalk and upset 21-17 by the Broncos in Week 8 as a 1-point home fave. The teaser options are plentiful this week, so take your pick among Giants +8.5, Browns -1, Seahawks -1.5 and Raiders +8. My favorite 2-point, 6-point teaser in Sunday’s early slate of game is Lions +7.5/Giants +8.5

Best Bet: Lions +7.5 in teasers and probably also +1.5 (pool play: Lions 60/40 in all SU and ATS contests).

Washington Commanders (-2.5) at New York Giants

Speaking of the Giants’ teaser . . . .the only reason I’m not taking the Giants on the regular spread is it’s a little short for my liking due to the Commanders being on a 6-1 SU and ATS run, mostly due to Taylor Heinicke taking over for Carson Wentz. Well, there’s also the fact that the Giants were “doing it with mirrors” with their own 6-1 run to start the season and have been exposed a little bit lately, including losing three of their last four games with the only win in that stretch being against the lowly Texans. They did end up covering in their 28-20 loss as 10-point road underdogs at the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, so they should be able to stay within one score of the Commanders.

Best Bet: Giants +8.5/Lions +7.5 among other teasers. (pool play: Giants 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).

Deshaun_Watson

Cleveland Browns (-7) at Houston Texans

Deshaun Watson is expected to make his long-awaited season debut for the Browns against his former team – but that’s about the only reason that people will be paying attention to this matchup (except for fantasy owners) as the Texans are 1-9-1 and again leading the race for the No. 1 draft pick while the Browns are 4-7 as Jacoby Brissett wasn’t able to keep them in the wild-card race while waiting for Watson’s player conduct suspension to run its course. I believe Watson will step right in and have success (and you can expect I’ll be using the Browns as dogs in the coming weeks vs. the Eagles and Vikings), but while I won’t lay a touchdown in any NFL game, I will tease the Browns under a field goal here.

Best Bet: Browns -1/Seahawks -1.5 among other teasers (pool play: Browns 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 80/20 in SU pools).

Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Chicago Bears

Oh how the mighty have fallen. Aaron Rodgers has owned the Bears over the years, yet the Packers are only 4.5-point chalk in Chicago on Sunday after being 10-point home favorites when they beat the Bears 27-10 back in Week 2. The Packers have struggled since that victory while the Bears have shown improvement under second-year QB Justin Fields. However, we’re unsure if he’s going to return for this game. For that matter, there was some doubt about whether Aaron Rodgers would continue to play or if Jordan Love (who looked good in relief of Rodgers in the 40-33 loss at the Eagles on Sunday night), but in any case we think we’ll be avoiding this game.

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Packers 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 70/30 in SU pools).

Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) at Los Angeles Rams

This matchup is between two teams heading in opposite directions. The defending Super Bowl champion Rams are 3-8 and on a five-game losing streak as they are in last place in the NFC West while the Seahawks are 6-5 and just one game behind the 49ers and in the thick of the NFC wild-card race. Another sign of the Rams’ underperformance is their 2-8-1 ATS record after failing to even cover after closing as 15.5-point home dogs vs. the Chiefs last Sunday. The Rams’ offense ranks a woeful No. 31 in the league at just 279.8 yards per game. There’s plenty of excuses to go around, including a cluster of injuries, but Sean McVay’s offense was struggling even before injuries to QB Matthew Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp. As of Wednesday morning, we’re still waiting to hear if Stafford will return from his concussion(s) or if he’ll be shut down for the season. It appears oddsmakers are doubting Stafford returns as the Seahawks are 7.5-point road favorites. Geno Smith has been a pleasant surprise in Seattle, but the concern for those looking to back the Seahawks is the defense is ranked No. 30 in the league, as evidenced by the 40-34 OT loss to the Raiders. We never lay more than a TD in any NFL game (and very rarely more than a FG), but we can tease the Seahawks under a FG and just count on them to win the game.

Best Bet: Seahawks -1.5 in 6-point teasers (pool play: Rams 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Seahawks at least 80/20 in SU pools).

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-4)

This is one of the most intriguing Week 13 games as the Dolphins (8-3) are on a five-game winning streak and tied with the Bills atop the AFC East while the 49ers (7-4) are on a four-game winning streak and lead the NFC West. The Dolphins are tempting road dogs, but the 49ers haven’t allowed a second-half point in their last four games and just shut out the Saints 13-0, so I’m not in a hurry to fade them unless we’re getting more points. 

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: 49ers 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 75/25 in SU pools).

Josh_Jacobs

Los Angeles Chargers (-2) at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders were having a terrible season at 2-7 but have bounced back to pull back-to-back minor upsets of the Broncos and Seahawks the last two weeks. However, the Raiders have been in nearly all their games this season but were 0-6 in one-score games before their recent run. This is another case of a line being too short for me to take the dog with the points, but it’s in “teaser territory” for us to move the line up through the key numbers of 3 and 7. Also, while the Chargers are playing pretty well lately – suffering narrow losses to the 49ers and Chiefs as there’s no shame in that – we’re encouraged by the fact the Raiders only lost 24-19 to these Chargers in the season-opener as we’re counting on another one-score game. If you didn’t link any early games to this one, my preferred afternoon teaser would be with the Seahawks -1.5.

Best Bet: Raiders +8/Seahawks -1.5 and other teasers (pool play: Chargers 55/45 in ATS contests and only around 60/40 in SU pools).

Kansas City Chiefs (-2) at Cincinnati Bengals

We continue our Week 13 theme here with another point spread that comes up a little too light for our liking with the underdog Bengals, though in this case we think we’re going to pass on teasing up the short dog as well. The Bengals are certainly capable of staying with the Chiefs and might get WR Ja’Marr Chase back, but the Chiefs are really hard to fade right now as they’re on a five-game win streak and also 3-2 ATS in that stretch. They did fail to cover in wins over the Titans and Chargers, but it’s harder to ask a team to cover as just 2-point dogs without being more confident in them pulling off the outright upset.

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Chiefs 60/40 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).

Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-11)

This line has gotten way out of control (opening Cowboys -9.5 on Sunday afternoon prior to the Colts’ 24-17 Monday Night Football loss to the Steelers), but we’ll gladly take the Colts as double-digit underdogs. NFL double-digit dogs are 11-6 ATS (64.7%) so far this season – and that’s with the Texans +14 and Rams +15.5 both coming up short this past Sunday. The Colts haven’t been a DD dog until now, but the Cowboys just failed after closing as a 10-point favorite in their 28-20 win vs. the Giants on Thanksgiving. The Colts are playing much better since Jeff Saturday replaced Frank Reich, beating the Raiders and covering as 6.5-point dogs in a 17-16 loss to the Eagles before the MNF loss. If the Giants could stay within single digits, so can the Colts.

Best Bet: Colts +11 (pool play: Colts 67/33 in ATS contests, but Cowboys still 75/25 in SU pools).

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)

We hope all our followers were listening to our weekly 12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday night appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” when I said I missed the +6.5 opener on the Saints but it was widely available at +6. I also gave it out in the Monday version of this column and in the VSiN daily newsletter, so hopefully everyone joined me as the line is now down to 3.5. If you haven’t bet it yet, I still like the Saints as long as the line is above 3 and will still use them in contests (you just have to assume the risk that the Bucs don’t win by 4, 5 or 6 points). The reasoning stays the same as Dennis Allen’s New Orleans defense is kryptonite to Tom Brady’s Superman. After going 0-4 against the Saints his first two years in Tampa (with 6 TDs and 8 INTs, including 2 pick-6s), Brady finally beat them 20-10 in this year’s first meeting in Week 2. But the defense still fared well, just like it did last Sunday in a 13-0 loss at the 49ers and another pocket QB in Jimmy Garoppolo. The Saints were obviously embarrassed by being shut out by the 49ers – especially as they squandered so many chances, including two goal-to-go opportunities on their last two drives in the fourth quarter. We expect the Saints’ D to keep them close and for the offense to bounce back.

Best Bet: Saints +3.5 (pool play: 67/33 in ATS contests and we’ll call for the outright upset at 55/45 in SU pools.). Thursday update: William Hill books in Nevada and DraftKings elsewhere have gone to Bucs -4, so we'll wait to get best number possible.

 

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