Tuley: Monday Night Football Best Bet, Contest Corner, NFL Week 16

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

December 19, 2022 06:59 AM
baker_mayfield_rams

Sunday was another incredible day of sports-betting action in the Tuley’s Takes home office that started early with an instant classic World Cup final went to penalty kicks and led right up to NFL early kickoffs at 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT.

And somehow the NFL topped the World Cup on Sunday (and that’s not even counting the Vikings’ all-time biggest comeback from a 33-0 deficit and a great Bills-Dolphins game on Saturday) with underdogs going 6-0 ATS in the early games with wild results left and right (see full recaps below) and then the Raiders’ miracle TD on the Patriots’ desperation lateral play with the game tied and the day ending with the Giants’ upset of the Commanders on Sunday Night Football.

I was so exhausted that after I did my weekly appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday nights) and got back home to finish my nightly betting recaps on Twitter, I crashed hard before filing this column (mea culpa to those East Coasters who like to read this column with their morning coffee).

It was all worth it for yours truly (and hopefully our followers) as the “dog-or-pass” philosophy continued to pay dividends as favorites went 7-4 SU on Sunday but underdogs led 7-3-1 ATS. Personally, we went 2-0 ATS with our top plays on the Texans +14 as they were easily the right side and took the Chiefs to OT before falling 30-24 and the Giants +4.5 won outright at the Commanders on SNF. We did lose on the Falcons-Saints Over 43.5, but won our top 2-team, 6-point teaser of the day on Lions +7.5/Titans +9.

The Texans’ cover was also our sixth straight Best Bet of the day winner as we improved our record to 34-17-1 ATS (66.7%) with our daily top play the last 52 days (is any public handicapper hotter over the past 7+ weeks?). We also improved to 31-14 ATS (68.9%) with my Sunday night picks on “The Greg Peterson Experience” and 18-5 ATS (78.3%) since the start of November. Those also include our winners on the Dolphins +7/+7.5 and BYU +1.5/+4.5 on Saturday (our next play is the Rams +7 at the Packers on Monday Night Football).

Let’s recap the rest of Sunday's betting action in the major team sports – including a peek into Contest Corner including Circa Survivor being cut down to 14 left in the record $6.133 million prize pool –  and then give that Monday Best Bet while also listing our early plays for the next week with a college bowl game on Wednesday and one early NFL Week 16 pick.

Sunday Recaps

NFL: Giants beat Commanders 20-12 on Sunday Night Football and did it as 4-point road underdogs and +175 on the money line (stayed Under 40.5). faves went 7-4 SU on Sunday, but dogs led 7-3-1 ATS. Road teams led 6-5 SU and split 5-5-1 ATS. Overs led 6-5.

More NFL: On the season, faves lead 141-76-2 SU with 4 pick-'ems but dogs improved to 117-95-7 ATS (55.2%). Home teams lead 119-96-2 SU with 6 neutral-site games and 107-103-6 ATS (51%). Unders still lead 121-100-2 (54.8%) and primetime Unders improved to 26-19-1 (57.8%).

Even more NFL: Faves/dogs split 3-3 SU in early games, but dogs swept 6-0 ATS (cha-ching!). The upsets were by the Jaguars (+4 vs. Cowboys), Steelers (+3 at Panthers) and Lions (+2.5 at Jets). The Texans (+14 vs. Chiefs), Bears (+9 vs. Eagles) and Falcons (+5 at Saints) covered in losses. In the afternoon games, faves went 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS with the push in Chargers (-3) 17-14 win vs. Titans. The Bengals (-3 at Buccaneers), Raiders (-2.5 vs. Patriots) and Broncos (-1 vs. Cardinals) covered, Las Vegas in spectacular fashion. Home teams 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS. Overs 3-1.

CBB: USC upset No. 19 Auburn 74-71 as short 1-point home underdog. In the Pac-12 Coast-to-Coast Challenge, No. 7 Texas (-10.5) beat Stanford 72-62 & No. 11 Baylor (-10) beat Washington State 65-59, but the Pac-12 dogs covered in each game.

NBA: Faves/dogs split 3-3 SU with NY-IND closing pick-’em but dogs swept 6-0 ATS. The upsets by Magic (+10.5 at Celtics), Warriors (+6 at Raptors) and Timberwolves (+2 vs. Bulls). The Hornets (+9), Pistons (+8.5) and Wizards (+3) covered in losses. Road teams 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS. Unders 4-3.

More NBA: On the season, faves lead 288-155 SU with 8 games closing pick-’em, but dogs improved to 222-206-15 ATS (51.9%). Home teams lead 276-175 SU and 230-206-15 ATS (52.8%). In totals wagering, Over/Unders back to .500 at 223-223-5.

NHL: Faves swept 5-0 Sunday and also went 4-1 on the -1.5 puck line. Home teams went 3-2. Over/Unders split 2-2-1 with the push in the Wild's 4-2 win vs. Senators with betting total of 6 goals. On the season, faves lead 294-192 with 14 PKs. Home teams 256-240 with 4 neutral-site games. Unders lead 246-236-18.

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor is down to 14 live entries as 16 were eliminated in the Commanders' loss on Sunday Night Football. Ten have advanced to next weekend's NFL Week 16/"Christmas Week" gauntlet, including 4 on the Vikings’ miracle comeback vs. the Colts and 2 who survived with the Chiefs in OT vs. the Texans. With 14 entries left playing for the $6.133 million prize pool, each live entry is worth $438,071.43, though 4 still need the Packers to beat the Rams tonight (ties lose, which was a distinct possibility for those on the Vikes and Chiefs).

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 2-3 in Week 15 -- 38-33-4 ATS (53.5%) on season -- with wins on Bengals -3.5 (No. 1 picks improved to 11-4, 73.3%) and Lions PK. Losses on the Bills -7 and Vikings -3.5 on Saturday plus Panthers -2.5 on Sunday. 

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 4-1 in Week 15, improving to 41-33-1 (55.4%) on the season. The wins were on the Bengals -3.5 (No. 1 pick 7-8), Lions PK, Jaguars +4 and Raiders +1. The lone loss was on No. 5 pick Jets PK (vs. No. 2 Lions).

Monday Best Bet

Rams +7 at Packers: I’m not saying all the Rams’ problems are solved with Baker Mayfield, but the fact remains that the Packers are still also having a major down season and shouldn’t be favored by this many points against just about anyone. They’re just 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS this season as faves of 7 points or more. The Rams have struggled this season with injuries at every position, especially on the offensive line and Super Bowl heroes Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, but even a makeshift backfield (led now by Cam Akers?) should have success against the Packers’ porous run defense – they are ranked No. 30 in average rushing yards allowed per game (154.8) and average yards per rush (5.0) – along with Mayfield getting to know his receivers more.

NFL Week 16

Falcons +7 at Ravens

Early CFB Bowl Best Bet

Wednesday: Western Kentucky +4.5 vs. South Alabama

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