Tuley: Monday Night Football Best Bet, Contest Corner, early NFL Week 15 picks

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

December 12, 2022 03:23 AM

Sunday was a little different than my usual itinerary as I woke up feeling under the weather and stayed home in the Tuley’s Takes home office to watch the NFL Week 14 card.

I didn’t have any Covid or flu symptoms besides an upset stomach and overall fatigue. However, I certainly felt better during the course of the day as I went 3-2 ATS with my top plays posted in the Sunday version of this column as underdogs went 7-4 ATS overall on the day (see our recaps below for more details).

In the early games, I won with the Jets +10 at the Bills to improve to 28-16-1 ATS (63.6%) with our daily top play since Oct. 27. We did lose with the Giants in another early game, plus lost our top teaser of the day on the Vikings +8/Ravens +7.5, but went 2-1 ATS in the afternoon games with wins on the Panthers +4 as they won outright at the Seahawks and Broncos +9 vs. the Chiefs while losing with the Buccaneers +3.5.

Overall, it was a small winner for yours truly, thanks to betting more on our plays that we originally gave out last Sunday night on our regular appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sundays or 15 minutes into the archived version) and all week in these columns. The wins were on the Jets and Broncos with the loss on the Giants as we improved to 29-13 ATS (69%) since the start of the football season with those early plays and 16-4 ATS (80%) since the start of November.

Let’s recap the rest of Sunday’s betting action, take a peek into Contest Corner and make our Best Bet for Monday Night Football, then list our early plays for NFL Week 15 that we gave out on the show last night.

Sunday Recaps

NFL: Chargers beat Dolphins 23-17 on Sunday Night Football after closing as 3-point home underdogs and +150 on the money line (stayed Under the betting total of 55 points). On Sunday, NFL faves went 7-4 SU but dogs led 7-4 ATS as Jets (+10 at Bills), Texans (+17 at Cowboys) and Broncos (+9 vs. Chiefs) covered in SU losses. Home teams went 6-5 SU and ATS. Overs led 7-4.

More NFL: On the season, faves lead 129-72-2 SU with 4 pick-'ems, but dogs improved to 108-89-6 ATS (54.8%). Home teams lead 111-88-2 SU with 6 neutral-site games and 101-94-6 ATS (51.8%). Unders dipped to 113-92-2 (55.1%) but primetime Unders improved to 23-18-1 (56.1%).

Even more NFL: Faves went 5-2 SU in early games but dogs led 4-3 ATS with covers by Texans (+17) and Jets (+10). Upsets were by the Jaguars (+3.5 in 36-22 win at Titans) and Ravens (+1.5 in 16-14 win at Steelers). Home teams went 4-3 SU but road teams led 4-3 ATS. Overs led 4-3. In the afternoon games, faves went 2-1 SU, but dogs led 2-1 ATS as Broncos (+9) covered in 34-28 loss vs. Chiefs. The upset was by the Panthers (+3.5 in 30-24 win at Seahawks). The 49ers (-3.5) easily covered in 35-7 rout vs. Buccaneers. Road teams went 2-1 SU but home teams led 2-1 ATS. Overs swept 3-0.

NBA: Favorites went 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS on Sunday with the Bulls (+3) covering as an underdog in 123-122 loss at the Hawks. The upsets were by the Rockets (+10 in 97-92 win vs. Bucks) and Magic (+6.5 in 111-99 win vs. Raptors). Homes teams went 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS. Overs led 4-3.

More NBA: On the season, faves lead 259-135 SU with 7 pick-’ems, but dogs hold slim overall lead at 195-185-14 ATS (51.3%). Home teams lead 249-152 SU and 206-181-14 ATS (53.2%). In totals wagering, Over/Unders back to .500 at 198-198-5.

CBB: No. 7 Tennessee beat No. 13 Maryland 56-53, but did NOT cover as 5.5-point favorite at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. No. 20 Iowa State (-26) covered in 77-40 rout vs. McNeese State. No. 23 Mississippi State (-7) covered in 69-51 win at Minnesota.

NHL: Underdogs went 4-2 on Sunday (after faves were 24-6 the prior 4 days). The upsets were by the Kraken (+139 at Panthers), Blue Jackets (+130 vs. Kings), Capitals (+111 at Jets) and Coyotes (-105 vs. Flyers). Road teams also went 4-2 and Overs also led 4-2. On the season, faves lead 261-175 with 10 games closing pick-’em,. Home teams lead 227-215 with 4 neutral-site games. In totals wagering, Overs retook lead at 215-214-17.

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor is down to 31 live entries after 15 were eliminated as the Seahawks (the most-selected team of the 70 contestants that were alive entering NFL Week 14) lost 30-24 to the Panthers. It was a day or carnage in Circa Survivor as the Top 3 picks all lost with Seahawks (15), Titans (12) and Raiders (11). There will at most 30 live entries after Monday Night Football as there is 1 entrant each that used the Patriots and Cardinals (but down to 29 if the game ends in a tie as Survivor picks must win). 

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 4-1 in NFL Week 14 (improved to 36-30-4, 54.5%, on the season). The wins were on the Chargers +3.5 (No. 1 picks improved to 10-4, 71.4%) vs. the Dolphins, Bengals -5.5 vs the Browns, Eagles -6.5 at the Giants and Lions -2.5 vs. the Vikings. The one loss was on the Seahawks -3.5 vs. the Panthers.

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 2-3 in NFL Week 14 (37-32-1, 53.6%, on the season). Wins were on the Lions -2.5 vs. the Vikings and Ravens +2.5 at the Steelers. The losses were on the Browns +6 (No. 1 picks drop to 6-8, 42.9%) at the Bengals, Vikings +2.5 at the Lions and Seahawks -3.5 vs. the Panthers.

Monday Best Bet

Cardinals +7.5/Under 50 vs. Patriots: NFL home underdogs are 43-30-4 ATS (58.9%) this season, but at Cardinals +1.5, I can’t pull the trigger on them as I agree with my VSiN colleague Matt Youmans that the Patriots should win this game outright, However, we can tease the Cardinals up through the key numbers of 3 and 7 in a 2-point, 6-point teaser. I expect Bill Belichick to try to grind out a win with the running game led by Rhamondre Stevenson with Damien Harris doubtful for the game. The Patriots average only 20.8 points per game, so I don’t expect them to pull away in a rout even though they are going against a Cardinals defense that allows 26.8 points per game. The Patriots’ strength is its defense allowing just 18.8 points per game, but in a relatively low-scoring game – and primetime Unders are 23-18-1 (56.1%) on the season – we feel that’ll allow Arizona QB Kyler Murray and WR DeAndre Hopkins to keep this to a one-score game. 

BYU +1.5 vs. SMU: I also gave out my favorite bowl pick of the week in Saturday’s New Mexico Bowl. BYU isn’t as good as we’ve seen in recent years, but I still believe the Cougars should be favored over SMU in this expected shootout as they at least have a defense that is more capable of getting a stop now and then.

Early NFL Week 15 odds, picks

Dolphins +7 at Bills: I discussed this bet with Peterson even though it was off the board when we went on the air. The advance line last week was Bills -7 but was adjusted down to 6.5 after the Bills’ non-cover against the Jets and before the Sunday nighter with the Dolphins playing. With Miami’s loss to the Chargers, I said I expected this line to go back to 7 and that I would recommend the Dolphins at that number. At 1:44 a.m. ET/10:44 p.m. PT, DraftKing reposted the line at Bills -7. 

Texans +14 vs. Chiefs: We love double-digit home underdogs, and as we said on the show, we believe that even though the Chiefs are a popular team that people will be willing to fade them after they failed to cover as 9-point road favorite at the Broncos. Besides, everyone saw the way the Texans easily covered as 17-point dogs at the Cowboys. I believe this is more likely to get bet down during the week.


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