Tuley: Monday CFB Playoff Championship Game Best Bet, early NFL playoff picks

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

January 9, 2023 05:38 AM
Sonny_Dykes_TCU_CFB_Playoff

Monday CFB Best Bet, Sunday recaps

Sunday was another long/busy/exciting day out of the Tuley’s Takes home office as we sprint the vast majority of it at Circa covering the final day of the NFL regular season and the Vegas football contests.

I ended up writing 3 articles during the day on the THE ENEMY WITHIN’s $2 million Bad Beat in Circa Survivor and then the wrapup of Circa Survivor with 2 winners collecting more than $3 million each and finally the story of how the Lions won $1 million for 4 Detroit fans in Circa Sports Million.

I then made my regular Sunday night appearance on VSiN's “The Greg Peterson Experience” and stayed at Circa past 11 p.m. PT to finish my Twitter recaps of the rest of the day’s action (see below) before getting home close to midnight and crashing before finishing up this daily column.

As for my own betting action, I won my Best Bet of the day on the Lions +5 at the Packers in their 20-16 upset on Sunday Night Football. That kept us over 60% at 43-27-2 ATS (61.4%) with our daily top play the last 72 days since late October as well as 33-19 ATS (63.5%) since the start of football season and 20-10 ATS since the start of November with our advance plays on “The Greg Peterson Experience” with TCU +13.5 vs. Georgia still pending from last Sunday night’s show.

I’m no millionaire like some of the contest players I’ve been covering, but it’s been a great football season for our “dog-or-pass philosophy” in the Tuley’s Takes home office, especially in the NFL as you’ll see below that underdogs finished the regular season at 141-118-8 ATS (54.4%) with 4 games closing pick-’em.

We also won with the Rams +6 at the Seahawks but lost on Jets +4 at the Dolphins (a classic Bad Beat as they trailed just 9-6 before giving up a safety on the final play of the game to lose 11-6) and our 2-team, 6-point teasers let us down for once as we built many of them around the Browns +8.5 in their 28-14 loss at the Steelers, though those using the Texans +8.5 at the Colts, Broncos +9 vs. Chargers, Bills -1.5 vs. the Patriots and Bengals -1 vs. the Ravens (from earlier in the week) in any combination helped cut those losses.

Let’s get to the recaps of the rest of Sunday’s action and then give our Monday Best Bet on the CFB Playoff Championship Game (though I hinted at it above) as well as our early NFL playoff Best Bets, again given out first on “The Greg Peterson Experience.”

Sunday Recaps

NFL: Favorites went 12-4 SU in NFL Week 18 but underdogs still led 8-7-1 ATS with upsets by the Texans, Panthers, Commanders & Lions. The Titans, Giants, Chargers and Rams covered in SU losses. The push was by the Bengals as they closed as 11-point faves and beat the Ravens 27-16. Home teams went 10-6 SU but road teams led 10-5-1 ATS. Unders 9-7.

More NFL: Faves finished 175-90-2 SU on the season with 4 games closing pick-'em, but dogs still led 141-118-8 ATS (54.4%). Home teams finished 147-116-2 SU with 6 neutral-site games, but road teams led 130-128-7 (50.4%). Unders dominated most of the season at 149-119-3 (55.6%) with primetime Unders going 35-19-1 (64.8%).

CBB: Northwestern upset No. 15 Indiana 84-83 as 6.5-point road underdogs and +230 on the money line. Maryland beat No. 24 Ohio State 80-73, but it wasn’t an upset as the Terrapins closed and covered as 2-point home favorites.

NBA: Faves went 8-1 SU on Sunday, but dogs actually led 5-4 ATS. The lone upset was by the Hawks (+2.5 in 112-108 win at the Clippers), but the Hornets (+6 at Pacers) & Suns (+6 vs. Cavaliers), Jazz (+5.5 at Grizzlies) and Heat (+2 vs. Nets) all covered in SU losses. Road teams went 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS. Overs led 6-3. 

More NBA: On the season, favorites improved to 379-216 SU with 9 games closing pick-'em while underdogs improved to 303-275-17 ATS (52.4%). Home teams lead 366-238 SU and 314-274-16 ATS (53.4%). In totals wagering, Overs continued to improve their lead to 312-285-7 (52.3%).

NHL: Faves went 7-1 on Sunday with lone upset by the Blues (+175 in 3-0 win at the Wild). Home and road teams split 4-4. Over/Unders also split 4-4. On the season, faves lead 365-235 with 18 PKs, home teams lead 317-289 with 4 neutral-site games and Unders lead 295-288-27.

Monday CFB Best Bet

TCU +13 vs. Georgia: As mentioned above, we gave this out a week ago Sunday at +13.5 and we saw it bet down to 12.5 (hopefully sharp money) before settling back at +13 at most books and even back to +13.5 at Station Casinos and Treasure Island here in Las Vegas and DraftKings nationally. We know people are saying Georgia survived its scare vs. Ohio State and will roll in this SEC-Big 12 matchup, but TCU has stepped up time and again this season and I expect coach Sonny Dykes to have the Horned Frogs right in this game after upsetting Michigan in the other national semifinal. I just think this line is too high and I’m calling for Georgia to win 27-24 but for TCU to cover as we put our CFB bowl Best Bet record of 4-0-1 ATS on the line (5-1-1 ATS if you include our Jan. 2 non-Best Bets on Tennessee and Penn State).

Early NFL playoff Best Bets

Dolphins +11 at Bills: We’re not sure who will be at QB for Miami, but the Bills have let teams stick around all season and we’ve had a lot of success fading them. We also can’t pass up a double-digit dog in the playoffs. 

Buccaneers +3 vs. Cowboys: Give me the home underdog in the wild-card weekend finale on Monday Night Football. More on this pick during the week, but I believe the time to grab the +3 is now.

 

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