Top NFL quarterback betting trends

December 6, 2022 10:20 AM
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I recently wrote about some of the best betting trends for NFL head coaches in late-season games. But there’s another aspect of the game that I find perhaps even more important in handicapping: quarterback play. There is no more important position in all of sports betting, and that includes starting pitchers in baseball. To put it simply, teams that are good at the QB position in the NFL always seem to be in the hunt for the postseason. Those that have an annual carousel of signal callers are usually home for the playoffs, changing head coaches and looking forward to replacing their quarterback in the upcoming draft.

Of course, as bettors, we generally believe that team success translates into point-spread success, so naturally, teams with better quarterbacks make for better bets. With that in mind, I dug into my database of NFL results and analyzed the game logs for each current starting quarterback. I examined their betting performance records in many scenarios, including home/road, line ranges, specific opponent, performance with current team and/or coach and much more. In the end, my table spit out a total of 4,533 total trends.

You may recognize that this article has changed from recent years, when I labeled it my annual “Quarterback Betting Report.” I figured rather than just regurgitating all of the records and data I discovered, I would instead focus on some of the most definitive and intriguing results. If you’re curious about any other angles or specific records for certain quarterbacks, feel free to reach out and I’ll do what I can to find out.

With all of that said, here are 25 of the top QB betting trends you’ll want to make note of and recall for future reference, along with my analysis:

 * Patrick Mahomes (KC) is 7-2 SU and 9-0 ATS (100%) as a road underdog. The average line was +3.1, team average PF: 36.4

Steve’s thoughts: This is obviously a rare angle for Mahomes and the Chiefs as they are almost always favored. However, when they are in the underdog role on the road they have thrived, scoring 36.4 PPG on average. Underdog or favorite, teams scoring that much on any trend will fare well.

* Russell Wilson (DEN) is 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS (100%) vs. John Harbaugh. The average line was -1.4, team average PF: 21.9

Steve’s thoughts: I was fortunate enough to catch this angle before last weekend. Wilson and the Broncos took on the Ravens on Sunday in Baltimore and nearly won as 9-point dogs, falling victim to a late touchdown and dropping a 10-9 decision. It was the seventh ATS win in a row for Wilson vs. Harbaugh.

* Tom Brady (TB) is 9-3 SU and 10-1-1 ATS (91%) as a home underdog. The average line was +4, team average PF: 31.8

Steve’s thoughts: This is another angle that has been very rare, as Brady has been a home underdog only 12 times in his illustrious career, winning 75% of those opportunities outright and 91% against the Vegas number. Like Mahomes on the road, Brady’s home dog teams have scored very well, averaging 31.8 PPG. This trend figures to get tested in a couple of weeks when the Bucs host surging Cincinnati.

* Jared Goff (DET) is 8-17 SU but 17-8 ATS (68%) with current head coach Dan Campbell. The average line was +5.8, team average PF: 22.5

Steve’s thoughts: Including a 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS record in the last five games, the combination of QB Goff and HC Campbell has produced big profits for bettors for the last two seasons. In the last 16 games the Lions have played with this combination, they have scored 29 points or more nine times. Goff figures to be a factor in the playoff races over the next two weeks, with games at home against Minnesota and at the Jets coming up.

* Jalen Hurts (PHI) is 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS (89%) as a home favorite. The average line was -7.4, team average PF: 31.1

Steve’s thoughts: One of the reasons this trend stood out to me, besides the glowing record, is the average lines of the games involved in the sample. Nowadays in the NFL, you don’t see too many home favorites averaging more than a TD, and furthermore, you see even fewer playing well in that role. However, Hurts’ Eagles have averaged 31.1 PPG when hosting overmatched foes and have essentially taken care of business in a role not many other teams do. The Eagles host the Saints and Giants to close the regular season, and assuming playoff stakes are on the line, they will be home favorites in both games.

* Joe Burrow (CIN) is 6-7-1 SU and 12-2 ATS (86%) as an underdog of 7 points or less. The average line was +4.3, team average PF: 24.3

Steve’s thoughts: With the average NFL team scoring right around 22 PPG since Burrow has been in the league, it’s impressive to see his Bengals averaging 24.3 PPG in the small underdog role. I prefer to back underdogs capable of scoring points and staying in games or coming from behind. While Burrow’s teams are under .500 outright in this trend, they have proved to be good money producers for ATS backers. Two potential but uncertain opportunities remain in the 2022 regular season to see this trend again, at Tampa Bay on Dec. 18 and at New England on Dec. 24.

* Aaron Rodgers (GB) is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS (86%) as a home underdog. The average line was +2.6, team average PF: 27.6

Steve’s thoughts: Like Brady, Rodgers has rarely been a home underdog. It’s happened only seven times in his career. The best players in any sport tend to step up when the betting world disses them, and Rodgers would naturally take motivation from being an underdog at Lambeau Field. His Packers teams have scored 27.6 PPG in this trend and have won most often. Green Bay could be a home dog to Minnesota on New Year’s Day.

* Lamar Jackson (BAL) is 8-5 SU and 11-2 ATS (85%) as an underdog. The average line was +3.1, team average PF: 24.8

Steve’s thoughts: If you’re sensing a pattern, the best quarterbacks in the league tend to do well when the oddsmakers take a stand against them. Jackson and the Ravens are not underdogs very often, but when they are, they thrive. Like all of the other underdog examples pointed out so far, the elite quarterback’s team can score in the role, in this case, 24.8 PPG. Jackson’s knee injury diagnosis is still unclear, but assuming he’s good to go, it’s possible he and the Ravens could be an underdog in the season finale at Cincinnati with a division title on the line.

* Aaron Rodgers (GB) is 25-5 SU and 23-7 ATS (77%) versus CHICAGO. The average line was -5, team average PF: 26.8

Steve’s thoughts: Surely everyone is familiar with Rodgers’ success against the Bears, with his famous “I still own you” proclamation from 2021 being recalled often on Sunday as the Packers notched another victory in Chicago. Like his processor, Brett Favre, the Packers’ QB has driven Bears fans nuts since his arrival. Hopefully Sunday’s game wasn’t the last in the huge rivalry featuring Rodgers.

* Joe Burrow (CIN) is 13-4 SU and ATS (76%) vs. non-divisional conference foes. The average line was -0.4, team average PF: 25.6

Steve’s thoughts: This is another angle in which Burrow has fared well, and it helped him lead his team to the Super Bowl last season as the Bengals rallied for three straight such wins. After the victory over the Chiefs on Sunday, this trend has registered nine straight outright and ATS wins! Cincinnati still has games against New England and Buffalo to go in the regular season.

* Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) is 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS (75%) in home games. The average line was -1.7, team average PF: 24.8

Steve’s thoughts: There was a time not long before Tagovailoa’s arrival in Miami that the Dolphins’ home-field advantage was virtually nonexistent. However, with him leading a much-improved passing attack featuring some elite playmakers on the outside, coming to South Beach is no longer a vacation for visiting teams. Miami has scored 24.8 PPG at home in Tua’s starts and usually wins such games. Still to come are home dates with the Packers and Jets.

* Dak Prescott (DAL) is 26-6 SU and 23-9 ATS (72%) in divisional games. The average line was -3.5, team average PF: 28.8

Steve’s thoughts: It seems as if a lot of Philadelphia fans are coming to VSiN for their betting insights, as I caught some flak last week in my “Simulating the rest of the NFL season by Power Ratings” piece for suggesting the Cowboys could still catch the Eagles. If you recall, Philly beat Dallas already this season, but that was with Cooper Rush at QB for the Cowboys. Dallas has been phenomenal in divisional games with Prescott under center, scoring almost 30 PPG against divisional foes while winning better than 80% of games. Don’t count the Cowboys out of the NFC East race yet, as they still have divisional games against the Eagles and Commanders.

* Derek Carr (LV) is 11-6 SU and 12-5 ATS (71%) vs. DENVER. The average line was +3.2, team average PF: 22.1

Steve’s thoughts: There aren’t a whole lot of prolific betting angles suggesting to back Derek Carr on a weekly basis, but his record against Denver has been stellar. His Raiders teams actually boast an 11-6 SU and 12-5 ATS mark versus the Broncos despite playing as 3.2-point underdogs on average. Two of Las Vegas’ five wins this season have come against Denver. Next chance to back this trend will come next year, assuming Carr is still in Las Vegas, or if any new team he plays for faces the Broncos.

* Ryan Tannehill (TEN) is 16-10 SU and 16-7-3 ATS (70%) as a home underdog. The average line was +3.7, team average PF: 24.7

Steve’s thoughts: Tannehill is one of the more maligned quarterbacks in the NFL, but he has proved to be a pesky option in the home underdog role, with both the Titans and Dolphins. This home underdog trend with Tannehill is on an 11-4 SU and ATS surge, and his teams have scored 26.3 PPG on average. That type of production will most often get an underdog point spread covered. Consider Tennessee a live dog when it hosts Dallas on Dec. 29.

* Derek Carr (LV) is 13-23 SU and 13-22-1 ATS (37%) vs. NFC foes. The average line was +1.3, team average PF: 19.9

Steve’s thoughts: Although the Raiders were able to escape Seattle with a 40-34 OT win a couple of weeks ago, QB Carr’s career history versus NFC teams has not been so rewarding. His teams have only won about 36% of such games and are just 5-12 SU and 3-14 ATS when favored while scoring just 18.5 PPG. Those numbers are ugly and suggest caution for Thursday’s game at the Rams.

* Derek Carr (LV) is 26-19 SU and 15-28 ATS (35%) as a Favorite. The average line was -3.9, team average PF: 23.5

Steve’s thoughts: Here is a second straight Carr angle and a nice transition as I just detailed his horrible record as chalk in nonconference games. Overall as a favorite, Carr has been as unreliable as it gets, and with the Raiders coming off three straight wins and seemingly making a push for the playoffs, this trend will have to be overcome in order for them to be successful. I could easily see Las Vegas favored in at least four of its final five games.

* Marcus Mariota (ATL) is 15-20 SU and 11-23 ATS (32%) with his team off a WIN. The average line was +0.4, team average PF: 18.6

Steve’s thoughts: Mariota has essentially been a momentum killer as a starting quarterback throughout his career. With his teams coming off wins, Mariota’s record in the follow-up game has been disappointing, including SU and ATS losses in the last three tries. On the other hand, when his teams have been off losses, Mariota is on a nice surge of 17-9 ATS. The Falcons just lost to Pittsburgh on Sunday and will visit New Orleans on Dec. 18.

* Justin Fields (CHI) is 4-14 SU and 5-13 ATS (28%) in Sunday games. The average line was +4.6, team average PF: 19.6

Steve’s thoughts: Unfortunately for the Bears, almost all of the team’s games are on Sundays. Only the elite teams play in the standalone games on the NFL schedule. Fields is making measurable progress as both a runner and passer as a quarterback, however, and hopefully his struggles in trends like this can turn in the near future. As it stands, Chicago has three Sunday games remaining, up next out of the bye week on Dec. 18 vs. Philadelphia.

* Matthew Stafford (LAR) is 2-14 SU and 4-11-1 ATS (27%) as an underdog of more than 7 points. The average line was +10.7, team average PF: 17.1

Steve’s thoughts: It remains to be seen whether Stafford returns to the field in 2022 after suffering a concussion, but even if he does, his team will regularly be a heavy underdog the rest of the season. These were regular occurrences when Stafford was with Detroit, not so much in L.A., but it’s possible we could see this trend come up three times the rest of the way.

* Sam Darnold (CAR) is 4-15 SU and ATS (21%) as a road underdog. The average line was +8.5, team average PF: 15.4

Steve’s thoughts: Darnold is another quarterback in which most of the trend records detailing his career performance are definitively negative. He has been especially bad in the road underdog role with Jets and Panthers as his teams have produced just 15.4 PPG in that role. You won’t win or cover a lot games with that level of offensive futility. The next chance to fade this angle with Darnold and the Panthers comes on Sunday in Seattle.

* Patrick Mahomes (KC) is 6-0 SU and 1-5 ATS (17%) as a favorite of more than 7 points. The average line was -9.5, team average PF: 23

Steve’s thoughts: Admit it, you are surprised by this trend, as it seems Mahomes has been proficient in almost every spread betting scenario. In truth, though, the Chiefs have struggled in the large favorite role, as they tend to play down to the competition. The fact that they are scoring just 23 PPG in the large chalk role compared with 36+ PPG as road underdogs with Mahomes is, at least, statistically unusual. I could see this angle getting applied at least four more times down the stretch, starting Sunday in Denver.

* Dak Prescott (DAL) is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS (14%) in January. The average line was -1.6, team average PF: 25.7

Steve’s thoughts: For as much as I love the Cowboys’ chances to close out the regular season strong, Prescott will have to overcome his past struggles in January if this team is to make any noise in the postseason. For the record, the only regular-season January game for Dallas is in the finale at Washington.

* Trevor Lawrence (JAC) is 0-5 SU and ATS (0%) in December games. The average line was +4, team average PF: 11.6

Steve’s thoughts: After a downright ugly loss at Detroit on Sunday, Lawrence’s record in the month of December dropped to 0-5 SU and ATS. On a positive note, the 40-14 defeat actually saw his offensive average in such games climb to 11.6 PPG. Making matters worse for turning this angle around, the Jaguars face a difficult three-game stretch to close the month, with all playoff contenders lined up.

* Mac Jones (NE) is 0-6 SU and ATS (0%) as an underdog of 7 points or less. The average line was +2.8, team average PF: 17.2

Steve’s thoughts: This trend is actually a little scary, as it suggests that the Patriots aren’t ready to compete in late-season games that are expected to be competitive against fellow playoff contenders. New England has averaged just 17.2 PPG in the six games of this data sample, a big drop-off from the Brady days. Coach Bill Belichick’s team is a road favorite this week on MNF in Arizona but could be faced with this trend a couple of more times afterward.

* Trevor Lawrence (JAC) is 0-9 SU and ATS (0%) in nonconference games. The average line was +4.6, team average PF: 14.6

Steve’s thoughts: We just saw another horrible December angle that has defined Lawrence’s early career. This one is even worse, with his Jaguars having gone 0-9 SU and ATS to date versus NFC foes, the latest loss a 40-14 shellacking by the Lions. Up next on this trend is a game versus red-hot Dallas at home on Dec. 18, and assuredly, Jacksonville will need to score more than that 14.6 PPG average to hang in the game with the explosive Cowboys.

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