TNF Buccaneers vs. Bills Week 8 odds and predictions
Every week, VSiN will be doing an in-depth dive on the week’s Thursday Night Football game. In Week 8, that game features the Buffalo Bills hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. Last week, the Bucs suffered a brutal home loss to the Atlanta Falcons. However, the Bills were embarrassed last week, losing outright as big favorites over the New England Patriots. So, they’ll come into this one with chips on their shoulders. With that out of the way, keep reading for our Buccaneers vs. Bills preview, picks and player props.
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How To Watch Buccaneers vs. Bills
Date: Thursday, October 26
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Channel: PRIME VIDEO (Amazon)
Buccaneers vs. Bills Spread
The Bills are coming off a bad loss to the Patriots last week, but they’re in the ultimate get-right spot against a lousy Buccaneers team. Tampa Bay comes into this game after having lost three of its last four games, and the 16-13 home loss to Atlanta last week was especially concerning. That’s the type of game the Buccaneers really need to win, but they’re just not playing well enough offensively right now.
Tampa Bay has scored 11 or fewer points in three of its last four, and the Bucs are now just 24th in the league in Offensive DVOA. That’s going to make it hard for them to hang around against a Bills offense that is third in the league in Offensive DVOA and EPA per play.
Buffalo also happens to be decent defensively, even if it didn’t quite look that way last week. So, it’s hard to envision Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers really moving the ball here — especially considering this is a road game for them. Tampa Bay hasn’t been able to run the ball effectively all year, with the backfield duo of Rachaad White and Ke’Shawn Vaughn not being very impactful. That has made Mayfield’s life a lot harder, as this team is never really in manageable situations for him on third down.
It’s also hard to ignore that Tampa Bay is 2-12 against the spread when facing teams with completion percentages of 61.0% or better under head coach Todd Bowles. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 12-3 ATS after having failed to cover in three of its previous four games under head coach Sean McDermott. With that in mind, I think the Bills can be trusted to bounce back in this spot.
Buccaneers vs. Bills Total
It feels like we haven’t gotten as many ugly Thursday Night Football games as usual this year, but it’s hard to see this one being anything but that. I don’t see how the Buccaneers will hold up their end of the bargain for Over bettors in this spot. This Bills defensive front is going to be fired up after last week, making it hard to envision White suddenly breaking out on the ground — even if he did look good as a pass catcher last week. And once Mayfield is in clear passing situations, the Bills will dial up the pass rush and force him into uncomfortable positions.
The Bucs also happen to be a solid team defensively, so I don’t know if I see the Bills completely lighting up the scoreboard here. They should come away with a few big plays over the top, which is always a possibility with Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs on the same unit. But I don’t think Buffalo will do enough to hit this Over on its own, which is essentially what needs to be done against an opponent this bad.
The Under has also hit in 17 of the games the Bucs have played over the last two seasons, and it’s also 16-7 when the Bills are coming off a game in which they gave up 6.0 or more yards per play since McDermott took over. That speaks to what I hit on earlier in that you can expect Buffalo to bounce back, at least defensively.
Buccaneers vs. Bills Player Props
Parlay Calculator | Player Prop Analyzer
Rachaad White Under 48.5 Receiving Yards
I normally prefer taking Overs when going with player props. However, it’s hard for me to lay off a play like this. White has failed to rush for at least 49 yards in back-to-back weeks, and he has also failed to hit that mark in four of his six games this season. This just hasn’t been a good rushing team this season, and it feels like the Bucs are starting to give Vaughn more looks. That said, I think White will struggle to find holes against the Bills. And I’m not sure he’ll get enough carries to even realistically hit this.
Buccaneers vs. Bills Prediction
The spread in this game is a little bigger than I’d like it to be, but I’d still lean with the home team here. I simply think the Bills will be motivated to win this game after some miserable performances over the last few weeks. And they happen to be playing a team that could be overwhelmed by their talent on both sides of the ball. I also think there’s a pretty big mismatch when it comes to the guys wearing the headsets here. So, it feels like a blowout could be incoming.
Lean: Bills -8.5
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