Thursday Night Football Week 3: Giants vs. 49ers picks, predictions and player props

By Zachary Cohen  ( Senior Editor) 

September 21, 2023 03:42 PM

TNF Giants vs. 49ers Week 3 odds and predictions

Every week, VSiN will be doing an in-depth dive on the week’s Thursday Night Football game. In Week 3, that game features the San Francisco 49ers hosting the New York Giants at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California. The Giants are coming off an insane comeback win over the Arizona Cardinals. It was a massive win considering the Giants were staring down an 0-2 record for a while. Meanwhile, the 49ers earned a hard-fought win over the Los Angeles Rams. They're now 2-0 on the season and are looking the part of the Super Bowl contenders that many believed they were before the year. With that out of the way, keep reading for our Giants vs. 49ers preview, picks and player props. 

RELATED: Check out our Pro Picks page for NFL best bets from all of our VSiN analysts

Giants vs. 49ers Spread

The Giants are coming off a remarkable win over the Cardinals last week, as they trailed 20-0 going into halftime and then 28-7 in the third quarter. But Daniel Jones started to heat up for New York in that one, and his 321 passing yards and two touchdowns through the air, along with 59 yards and a touchdown on the ground, ended up saving the Giants. It also helped that New York’s defense woke up and stopped letting a miserable Arizona offense march down the field with ease. Now, the Giants have some momentum heading into Thursday night, but will that matter against an elite 49ers squad?

To this point in the season, nobody has had an answer for Christian McCaffrey and the San Francisco running game. And the oddsmakers clearly don’t think the Giants will have one, as McCaffrey is going off at nearly -300 to score a touchdown in this game. McCaffrey has rushed for 268 yards with two touchdowns thus far, and he now faces a New York defense that gave up 5.0 yards per carry to Tony Pollard in Week 1 and followed it up by allowing James Conner to rush for 106 yards and a touchdown in Week 2. If the Giants can’t patch things up along the defensive line, it’s hard to believe they’ll have much of a chance in this game. And it’s not like the 49ers don’t have anything going in the passing game. Sure, Brock Purdy has missed some easy throws early in the season, but the fact that the receivers are constantly running free makes his life easy. And it’s only a matter of time before he starts connecting on some of his deep shots. But even if he doesn’t, the ability of the 49ers pass catchers — especially Deebo Samuel — to make plays after the catch is what makes this offense special.

The 49ers are also a very difficult team to beat on the road. Last season, San Francisco was 10-1 straight-up and 9-2 against the spread in home games. That’s not great news for a New York team that will already be facing an uphill battle in the talent department here. The Giants won’t even have the luxury of pounding away with Saquon Barkley and hoping to win the clock management game. Barkley is out a few weeks with a significant ankle sprain, which is an injury you’ll want to monitor with our VSiN Injury Report. New York is also without left tackle Andrew Thomas, which is going to be a massive blow to the offensive line. 

Giants vs. 49ers Total 

The Giants followed up their miserable Week 1 loss to the Dallas Cowboys by scoring 31 points in a road game against the Cardinals. There’s no denying that Arizona is a weak opponent but seeing Jones and the Giants passing game get going was good to see for anybody interested in betting the Over on this game. And I do think New York will have a couple of successful drives in this one, which should be enough for this game to reach the number. There’s just no such thing as really stopping this 49ers offense, and I can’t imagine the Giants being the first ones to do it. Their rushing defense has been a disaster early this year, so the 49ers should be able to run all over them. That will then set up easy opportunities for Purdy to make some plays with his arm.

The Over also happens to be 20-14 in the games the 49ers have played as home favorites under head coach Kyle Shanahan. That is largely because San Francisco has scored nearly 30 points per game in that situation. But who cares how it gets done? All that matters is that these teams combine to score at least 45 points. If it’s the 49ers that end up carrying the load, then so be it.

Giants vs. 49ers Player Props

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Daniel Jones Over 213.5 Passing Yards

Last week, Matthew Stafford threw for 307 yards against this 49ers defense. Of course, Stafford is a much better thrower than Jones is. But Stafford’s performance at least shows that this San Francisco defense is somewhat beatable through the air. And the fact that this is a game in which the Giants could easily fall behind only makes this Over more appealing. Jones is going to need to throw in order to try and keep New York in the game, much like he did when he threw for 321 yards against Arizona last week. Also, with Barkley out of the lineup, it feels like the Giants will have no choice but to lean heavily on the passing game. And all of that makes this number seem way too low.

Giants vs. 49ers Best Bet

It feels like this is a game that the 49ers should win easily, but Thursday nights can be pretty wacky. With that in mind, I feel a lot more comfortable playing the Over here. Regardless of whether the Giants can find a way to cover here, I don’t see them completely stopping the 49ers offense. Meanwhile, New York found some rhythm in the passing game last week, so the team should be able to throw on San Francisco. After all, Stafford and the Rams did. So, I’m hoping for a sneaky shootout on Thursday night.

Bet: Over 44.5 (-110) 

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