TNF Bengals vs. Ravens Week 11 odds and predictions
Every week, VSiN will be doing an in-depth dive on the week’s Thursday Night Football game. In Week 11, that game features the Baltimore Ravens hosting the Cincinnati Bengals at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. Last week, the Bengals lost a bad game against the Houston Texans. Meanwhile, the Ravens blew a lead in a loss to the Cleveland Browns. So, both of these teams will be coming into this big divisional game with plenty of motivation. With that out of the way, keep reading for our Bengals vs. Ravens preview, picks and player props.
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How To Watch Bengals vs. Ravens
Date: Thursday, November 16
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Channel: PRIME VIDEO (Amazon)
Bengals vs. Ravens Spread
In one of the most exciting Thursday night games of the year, we’ll see Joe Burrow and the Bengals taking on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in a crucial game. After last week’s loss to Houston, Cincinnati can’t afford to let many more games get away. So, this is close to must-win territory for the Bengals, but the matchup isn’t exactly great. Baltimore is first in the league in DVOA this season, and the team is getting it done on both sides of the ball. The Ravens are fifth in the league in Offensive DVOA and second in Defensive DVOA. That means Cincinnati will have its work cut out on both sides of the ball.
This Ravens team is second in the league in Defensive DVOA against the pass, so this might not be an easy game for Burrow. However, Burrow did lead Cincinnati to a playoff win over Baltimore last year, and he has proven throughout his career that this matchup doesn’t scare him. In fact, Burrow is 4-3 in seven career starts against the Ravens, and he has had some big games against this defense. But it will be hard for Burrow to get it going if Joe Mixon isn’t picking up chunk yardage on the ground. The more third-and-long situations Burrow faces, the better off Baltimore will be.
It’s also a little concerning how easily C.J. Stroud and the Texans moved the ball against this Bengals defense last week. He threw for 356 yards with a touchdown and he also came up with big throws whenever Houston needed him. That should give Jackson a blueprint on how to attack this defense here. And Baltimore should have more success running the ball in this game. This rushing attack has been good throughout the season, even though they have dealt with plenty of injuries in the backfield.
There are two interesting trends in this game, with one working against the Bengals and the other in their favor. Cincinnati is 1-23 straight-up in evening road games over the last 25 years, and the team carries a 13-game losing streak in this situation. However, the Bengals also happen to be 8-0 against the spread as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons. And they have actually won those games by an average of 7.0 points per game. Burrow also happens to be historically good as an underdog, in general.
Overall, this is a difficult game to call. But it does feel like Cincinnati is getting a lot of points for a divisional rivalry, especially with the Bengals needing a victory.
Bengals vs. Ravens Total
Thursday Night Football games, and most primetime games, are going Under at a high clip this year. But these are two teams that have good coaches and a strong desire to win. So, they will be more prepared in three days than most teams are in a full week. That said, I think you can handicap this game as if it’s a normal Sunday game. And I think this one is going to go Over the total.
The Bengals have gone Over the total in two of their last three games, and they have now scored at least 27 points in three of their last five. This Cincinnati team is looking explosive again, and it should have some success against a good Baltimore defense. Meanwhile, even though Baltimore lost to Cleveland last week, the Ravens scored 31 points and have now reached that mark in each of their last four games. They have also gone Over the total in three of their last four. So, this is a team that is getting involved in high-scoring affairs.
Bengals vs. Ravens Player Props
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Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
For as good as this Ravens defense can be, I just don’t see Burrow failing to reach the two-touchdown mark. Burrow has thrown for at least two scores in each of his last five games, and he has thrown for three touchdowns in two of those five. The 26-year-old is just in a really nice groove right now, and the fact that his calf is healthy has been a game changer. I also like that a play like this can hit in one of two different ways. Burrow can either find success against the Ravens and just play a good game at the quarterback position. But the Ravens can also potentially go up somewhat big, forcing the Bengals to try and throw their way back into it. Either way, this total is just way too low for an elite quarterback.
Bengals vs. Ravens Prediction
I have a slight lean on the Bengals as 4-point ‘dogs in this game, but I feel better about this one going Over the total. I think we’re going to see a high-scoring game, as both of these offenses are clicking right now. I know these defenses are both capable of turning things up, too. But good offenses tend to beat good defenses. And overall, I just wouldn’t want to be on the Under in a matchup with these two quarterbacks.
Lean: Over 45.5
Head to our Pro Picks page to see how VSiN analysts are betting Bengals vs. Ravens!
