Thursday Night Football Sharp Report: Raiders at Rams

December 8, 2022 12:09 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday's betting action be sure to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 2:30 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday Night Football...


8:15 p.m. ET: Las Vegas Raiders (-6.5, 43.5) at Los Angeles Rams

The Raiders (5-7) have won three straight games and just took down the Chargers 27-20, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Rams (3-9) have lost six straight games and just fell to the Seahawks 27-23 but covered as 6.5-point home dogs. Both teams are giving up roughly 24 PPG on defense. The difference comes on offense where the Raiders are averaging 24 PPG compared to just 17 PPG for the Rams. 

This line opened with the Raiders listed as a 5.5-point road favorite. We've seen the Raiders get steamed up from -5.5 to -6.5. Las Vegas is receiving 68% of bets and 78% of money, signaling a combination of both "Pro and Joe" support. It will be interesting to see if the Raiders reach the key number of -7 on gameday, which will signal further Vegas support. Or, if the line reaches 7, will we see buyback on the Rams at +7? This will be something to monitor. The Raiders will likely be a popular teaser play, taking Vegas down from -6.5 to -0.5. 

The Rams are contrarian in a heavily bet game, receiving only 32% of bets as an unpopular home dog in primetime. Los Angeles also matches several betting systems. Primetime dogs are 23-16 ATS (59%) this season. Sweet spot dogs +3.5 or more are 69-45 ATS (61%). One key variable to monitor here is who Sean McVay will start at quarterback. Matthew Stafford is on injured reserve and John Wolford is questionable, leaving Bryce Perkins and newly acquired Baker Mayfield the logical options. The Rams will also miss start defensive tackle Aaron Donald due to injury. 

The total opened at 42 and quickly got bet up to 44. But over the past 24-48 hours we've seen a flood of under money drop the line back down to 43.5. The 43.5 is juiced to the under at -115, signaling a possible further drop down to 43. The under is receiving 43% of bets but 53% of money. Primetime unders are 22-17 (56%) this season. 

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