Thursday Night Football Sharp Report: Bills at Patriots

November 30, 2022 11:43 PM
belichick

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday's betting slate, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday Night Football...

 

8:15 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 43.5) at New England Patriots

The Bills (8-3) have won two straight games and just edged the Lions 28-25 but failed to cover as 9.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Patriots (6-5) just saw their three game win streak come to an end, falling to the Vikings 33-26 and failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs. 

This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 5.5-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with Josh Allen and company, who have dominated the Patriots in their last two head-to-head matchups. However, despite receiving 77% of bets the Bills have plummeted from -5.5 to -3.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line so drastically to make it easier for the public to cover when they're already hammering Buffalo to begin with? Because smart money has gotten down on the Patriots plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the home dog. 

In addition to the sharp line move, New England also matches several profitable betting systems. Dogs who failed to cover the previous week are 41-27 ATS (60%) this season. Sweet spot dogs +3.5 or more are 66-39 ATS (63%). Divisional dogs are 33-20 ATS (62%). Primetime dogs are 22-14 ATS (61%). Buffalo will miss star pass rusher Von Miller due to injury and there are also reports that the Bills are dealing with an illness inside their locker room. 

Pros have targeted the under as well, dropping the total from 45 to 43.5. Divisional unders that fall at least a half point are 19-8 (70%). The under is only receiving 28% of bets but 37% of money, a sharp contrarian "low bets, higher dollars" discrepancy. The forecast calls for low 30s with 10 MPH winds. 

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