Thursday NFL Thanksgiving Day Sharp Report

November 24, 2022 12:37 AM
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Happy Thanksgiving!

Historically, NFL favorites have done well on Thanksgiving Day. Since 2005, Thanksgiving Day favorites are 33-16 ATS (67%). Larger favorites of 7-points or more have done even better, going 17-4 ATS (81%). Thanksgiving Day favorites with a line move in their favor have gone 13-5 ATS (72%). Totals have been a wash on Turkey Day, going 25-24 to the under.

With these trends in mind, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday's Turkey Day slate...

 

12:30 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills (-9.5, 54.5) at Detroit Lions

The Bills (7-3) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 31-23 win over the Browns, covering as 7.5-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, the Lions (4-6) have won three straight games and just beat the Giants 31-18, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 10-point road favorite. We've seen this line fall from 10 to 9.5, signaling some respected money grabbing the points with the home dog Lions. Big dogs +7 or more are 23-13 ATS (64%) this season. Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season are 67-49 ATS (58%). Dan Campbell is 17-10 ATS (63%) as a dog with the Lions. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game as the total has been steamed up from 51.5 to 54.5. The Lions are 7-3 to the over this season but the Bills are 7-3 to the under. 

 

4:30 p.m. ET: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-10, 45.5)

The Giants (7-3) have lost two of their last three games and just fell to the Lions 31-18, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Cowboys (7-3) have won three of their last four games and just blasted the Vikings 40-3, easily covering as 2-point road favorites. This line opened with Dallas listed as low as a 7-point home favorite. Sharps have steamed the Cowboys up from -7 to -10. This movement is notable because the public is all over the Giants as a trendy dog (receiving 64% of bets). Yet despite this public support to New York the line has moved further to Dallas. This signals wiseguy reverse line movement on Dallas with pros backing the contrarian favorite and laying the points. We've also seen some smart money hit the over, raising the total from 43.5 to 45.5. 

 

8:20 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 42.5)

The Patriots (6-4) have won three straight games and just edged the Jets 10-3, covering as 3.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Vikings (8-2) just saw their seven game win streak snapped with a 40-3 blowout loss to the Cowboys, failing to cover as 2-point home dogs. This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 3-point home favorite. Currently 75% of bets are laying the points with Minnesota, expecting a bounce-back win and cover for the Vikings. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen Minnesota fall from -3 to -2.5. This indicates respected money grabbing the Patriots at the key number of +3. Primetime dogs are 21-12 ATS (64%) this season. Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 43.5 to 42.5. The under is receiving 57% of bets but 69% of money, a sharp low bets, higher dollars bet discrepancy. 

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