Three NFL player props I'm playing in Week 10

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

November 12, 2022 06:48 PM
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Week 10 brings a new assortment of prop betting opportunities in the NFL. With the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots and New York Jets on byes, we’ve got 13 games to think about for Sunday and Monday. Scoring has picked up a little bit in the NFL lately, but keeping an eye on the injury reports will be one of the best handicapping tools to find some value in the prop markets.

Here are three props to consider for Week 10:

Jacoby Brissett Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-115)

The Dolphins have been a pretty good defense against the run, but they have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Even though Brissett does not have more than 22 completions in a game this season, he has gone over this total in four of his eight games, including each of the last three. Teams are starting to do what they can to dare Cleveland to throw the ball and the Browns have actually responded really well.

Brissett is coming off of a season-high 278-yard performance against the Bengals in which he only had 17 completions. The Browns are really starting to create explosive passing plays and have a chance at getting David Njoku back for this week’s matchup. The Dolphins rank 29th in Dropback EPA and Dropback Success Rate on defense. The Browns are well-versed in the metrics and Kevin Stefanski seems to call plays based on the numbers a lot, especially against stout run defenses. He’ll throw the ball a frustrating amount of times for Browns fans, but there’s a method to the madness. I think he’ll see Brissett vs. the Dolphins pass defense as a strength this week.

Jared Goff Over 0.5 Interceptions (-150)

This one is a little bit chalky, but Goff’s struggles in cold weather and the scouting report about his small hands should come to the forefront in this game. Not only that, but windy conditions are expected in Chicago (surprise!) with sustained winds in the 15 mph range and gusts up into the 20-25 mph range on Sunday. Throws are going to blow offline and Goff already has problems with grip in colder weather.

It won’t be bitter cold, but the forecast calls for a wind chill around 30 and temperatures in the upper 30s. Given how awful the Lions defense is, it sure feels like the Bears can score some points with their newfound rushing success, forcing Goff into some second-half passing situations. In 56 outdoor games, Goff has thrown 48 interceptions and the Bears have nine interceptions in nine games this season.

Jaguars/Chiefs: Both Teams to Score 20+ Points (-110)

My favorite over bet this week is actually the highest total on the board between the Jaguars and Chiefs. Jacksonville has a top-10 rushing offense over the last four weeks thanks to the work of Travis Etienne, who has averaged over six yards per carry in that span. The Jaguars and Chiefs are also two of the highest-rated teams in Dropback Success Rate going into Week 10.

The Jaguars defense remains a work in progress, but an offensive-minded head coach like Doug Pederson was going to figure the offense out rather quickly. The Jaguars are 10th in EPA/play (expected points added), which is a really impressive stat given that a lot of people are questioning the play and decision making of Trevor Lawrence.

Kansas City is Kansas City. The Chiefs are the best offense and best passing offense in the NFL. The Jaguars don’t force many turnovers and have some inflated defensive numbers from playing several weak quarterbacks and offenses thus far. Kansas City does not fit either description. This should be a shootout at Arrowhead and I think both teams contribute

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